Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in the first half of 2021 and takes questions from the media and the live online audience.
Central Bank of Barbados
Review of Barbados Economy January to June 2021
Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in the first half of 2021 and takes questions from the media and the live online audience. Central Bank of Barbados
151 responses to “Review of Barbados Economy January to June 2021”
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https://barbadostoday.bb/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Marla-Dukharan-730×456.jpg
Dukharan lashes EU financial attacksArticle by Marlon Madden
Published on
July 29, 2021A Barbados-based regional economist is blasting the European Union (EU) on its blacklisting of small island states, which she says reeks of racism and was 21st century economic warfare.
Marla Dukharan, an economist, and former senior economic advisor to Royal Bank of Canada’s (RBC) Caribbean operations, ripped the
EU in one of her most forceful denunciation of the Europeans.
Writing in her July Economic Review in a commentary titled From Blackbirding to Blacklisting – The EU’s Ongoing Subjugation of Vanuatu, she condemned the decision to blacklist Vanuatu, one of the world’s poorest countries, which was also suffering through a pandemic. She said the group of islands which was recovering from the damage of a Category 5 Cyclone, was placed not only on one EU blacklist but two, for alleged tax and anti-money laundering/counter financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) non-compliance.
The EU, Dukharan pointed out, took the action against the South Pacific country, even though it was cleared by the “globally recognised tax and AML/CFT authorities”.
According to the economist: “This, when only an estimated US$7 million in corporate tax revenue is ‘lost’ annually due to zero-corporate tax, while an estimated six trillion in euros is managed in never-blacklisted Luxembourg, for example.”
Last year, the EU blacklisted Barbados, despite the island clearing the legislative hurdles prescribed by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and the Finance Action Task Force (FATF). In a scathing critique the Europeans’ actions, Dukharan added: “How could this ever be justifiable? Furthermore, it is quite the bureaucratic and statistical feat that the European
Union concocted and executed a methodology for their blacklists, so complex, so sophisticated, so precise, and ultimately so effective in achieving their true intent, that it produced not one, but two blacklists, where not one single country is predominantly white.”
The economist added: “It is embarrassing that even EU Members of Parliament highlighted the fact that jurisdictions currently on the EU tax haven blacklist account for less than two per cent of worldwide tax revenue losses, and that EU ‘member states forgot something when composing it: actual tax havens.”
Describing the EU’s blacklists as “farcical” and “devoid of any shred of credibility or validity”, Dukharan slammed the EU’s overreach into the sovereignty of an independent nation as “grossly disproportionate treatment” and “shamefully discriminatory”.
In her hard-hitting broadside of the EU, Dukharan said: “The EU’s blacklists represent indisputable examples of entrenched institutional racism and bullying. The penalties being imposed on Vanuatu have the potential to damage its economy irreparably. This is nothing short of economic warfare. Especially in the context of the pandemic, the EU’s behaviour is totally unjustifiable.
“The EU’s Blacklists are a clear manifestation of Europeans’ longstanding penchant for domination, exploitation, and brutality, which evidently continues unabated even today.”
(IMC1)Source: Barbados Today
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@David
Good articles as you can see the concern of the economist and business people Is the same. They sole concern is getting back to pre covid levels of economic activity. Mr Clarke went as far as calling the 5% a ” disappointment ” and he is correct. How can one be happy with a 5% recovery when you was closed last year for most of the same dam period! Or as Depeiza said 5% up from nothing ain’t worth mentioning.
What we must also remember is that many countries including the USA, will reach pre covid levels of economic activity this year in the 3rd and 4th quarter, so our concern should be when based on our current growth will we get there? Also remember we still have to deal with inflation as well which will effect true net growth to the average Barbadian’s financial reality.
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@John A
Our problem is that with COVID 19 having positioned leisure travel in a headlock we will not experience the usual bounce from a surging US (and others) economy.
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@David
That is why 18 months ago when may of us were here calling for diversification of the economy it should have been done. Today we could of had a vibrant alternative energy sector and a strong food base using greenhouses and technology. Instead we sit here waiting for the return of the Golden days of tourism which hopefully some day will be back.
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About 1 year the greatest /diversed economy In the world was experiencing post covid growth But still not back to pre covid. Y’et some seems to expext a little one track pony to be back at the first quarter of turn around to positive growth
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@ John2 July 30, 2021 9:45 AM
The journey of any economic recovery of a thousand miles on any path to earn forex must begin with the first step.
How come you- and the likes of the Guv- have all gone silent on the many private sector and FDI projects which have been in the construction pipeline for the past 5 years?
Have they all be abandoned because the future of hotel-based tourism is no longer seen bright and the paper-drawn Lighthouse overlooking the bay has gone dim?
When is that economic miracle worker called Hyatt going to come on the scene driven in a duty-free Merc to rescue Bridgetown and Barbados?
Why is there so much ‘stony’ silence on the ‘concrete’ status of that economic game-changing project?
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Miller
I an sure u have never heard me pushing any project that wasnt started.
I would have listed them by name to make a point . If You Can find any infomations of me pusshing any that was not started the please direct me to itAs for the guv, there is a phone number and e-mail address fo CBB
As for hyatt. Maybe malmoney knows u like sitting on his erection and is waiting until You g’et OFF
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@ John2 July 30, 2021 11:39 AM
But Jonnny No.2, aren’t you the BU political mouthpiece of the economic performance of the current administration the same way angela cox is its biggest ‘yellow’ critic and dye-in-the wool apologist for the previous one?
Aren’t you the one who is seeing economic green shoots to take the economy back to a pre-Covid period based on the Guv’s forecast?
How can there ever a rebound in tourism to save the country from economic dislocation when there is no confidence in the future of the industry?
The miller is not the one who cut the ceremonial ribbon at the grand turning of the sod to announce a May 2020 rise to the Hyatt erection.
It was your own boss lady.
As for sitting on Malmoney’s erection, well, how can a person raise the dead even if she prays to Priapus instead of the resurrected Jesus.
The man has really screwed your administration with his lumbering concrete tool.
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The 5% growth is not good news at all if it is for the same period of 2021 over 2020.
Jeeze! ABC and 123.
Still not listening to foolishness. A primary school child would know that when so many people in his household and neighbourhood have lost their jobs, things brown, brown, brown!
And if all Mummy and Daddy are doing is borrowing, things will get browner.
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And if mom and sad dont borrow we going sleep with kess and less lin Our stomach Every night and more people Will ve laud off so them kids Will be just like us
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Miller
I May be the mouth piece of whom at whatcever tou want me to be but You Will not choose what topic i chooce to speak on
Again. Show me anytime where i have spoken on a project that wasnt not started
And more precisely – where i have spoken In support of or against ur favorite erection that only come up when You put ur mouth on it -
Along with the borrowing must be a plan to enable pay back.
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Worthy of mention.
“Steady” rise in new business registration –
https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/07/30/steady-rise-in-new-business-registration/
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Mom and Daddy are paying the mortgage and the car note when they are due
There is also and adjusted graph to show the expect decline In paypments/ gdp until about 2030 or there about
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The problem we have is the many unvaccinated and grossly overweight locals. Once our government has shot 500,000 doses of Moderna or Biontech-Pfizer into the arms of the native masses and subjected them to a strict diet for 12 months, they will all be in such great shape that Corona will not be able to harm them.
We won’t get far with the AZ vaccine from India and the Chinese brew, unfortunately. In addition, there are the numerous superstitious natives who categorically refuse vaccinations for reasons of their natural religion (just like the ISO Taliban).
So I expect three or four more years of economic doom. This is precisely why we need opium for the people, to quote Marx. This time not an individual religion, but our national religion, i.e. the proclamation of the republic. It will make our masses forget that they are totally cut off economically.
Only our Supreme Leader can help us now. Hear us!
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John 2 why are you wasting time with the naysayers on here most of them dems.Any recovery far less 5% is good news.After all we had covid 19 , the ashfall, hurricane elsa , the freak storm and WE STILL STANDING. due to proper leadership in these times.I shudder to think where Barbados would have been under the Dems and Mr Stuart most likely ducks guts.Therefore i believe we are on our way back up despite the naysayers some of whom has a problem with borrowing.I wonder how we would have survived as a country without in these trying times ?I gone.
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John 2,
Don’t mind Lorenzo! He is a Bee.
A blasted foolish one too who believes only praise should be lavished on his Chosen One.
I am worried about Barbados. That fool obviously does not understand that growth of 5% in 2021 over the same period of 2020 is simply a function of the country coming out from lockdown and restarting economic activity.
Having prepared accounting reports using the same statistical methodology and analysis, I know what I am talking about.
But even common sense would have told me that.
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When analysing economic performance any significant increases or decreases have to be explained before one can determine whether or not the news is good.
Besides, have we reached where we were in 2019? That would be a better gauge of our position.
I know we haven’t. Don’t need to check.
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The correct term is BASE YEAR. The base year chosen is very important in any statistical analysis. One can give any impression one wants by chosing a favourable base year.
It is a tactic that allows statistics to tell the truth and LIE at the same time.
Here the Governor is using the NORMAL method of analysis and reporting in ABNORMAL CIRCUMSTANCES. The resulting favourable impression is therefore meaningless.
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Do more for business
Barbados and other Caribbean countries will become unattractive to investors unless they get more serious about facilitating business activity.
Massy Holdings Group president and chief executive officer Gervase Warner sounded that warning while participating in a panel discussion earlier this week in the Central Bank’s 41st Annual Review Seminar.
The Trinidadian business executive called having to deal with multiple regulators in the Caribbean a “great nuisance” to business, adding the region’s firms would prefer to have one “robust” stock exchange.
He also urged the region to mobilise its financial resources to solve its own problems, rather than relying too much on foreign investors.
“We keep running into trouble . . . because we continue to find convenient answers like, ‘Well, just standardise the regulations’ and not really go for the full hog of a common regulator because, ‘Well, that’s just in the too-hard-to-do box’,” Warner lamented.
Great inefficiencies
“But in the meantime, we suffer from great inefficiencies, duplication and quite frankly we make our territories less attractive for investment.
“Capital goes where it’s welcome and where it feels it can grow, and until and unless we get an attitude that we are really serious about creating the most competitive economic space in this region for our people to benefit and grow into, I think we will continue to stymie the potential that we have in our small island developing states with some unique, beautiful characteristics that could have us be just phenomenal,” he warned.
Warner told the online session he was “definitely in favour of developing real economies of scale in operations, and for me that means in CARICOM really looking beyond just our island market economies and looking towards the entire CARICOM.
“But we have to do a better job of making the rest of CARICOM accessible as a domestic market to any and every one of us individually. The CARICOM Single Market and Economy is really not delivering on . . . the vision that was created,” he said.
Cross-listed shares Massy, which is based in Trinidad and Tobago, recently cross-listed its shares on the Jamaica Stock Exchange. Warner said this was with a view to getting the best possible returns at a time when the Trinidad and Tobago Stock Exchange was not performing as well as it had in the past.
He said Caribbean firms would prefer one regulator and a single market to trade their shares.
“I think that if you talk to any publicly traded entity that operates in multiple jurisdictions in CARICOM, we would all prefer for us to have one stock exchange where we could all be traded and have a good . . . economy of scale in a platform that could drive benefit, that is much more robust than having all of these multiple small exchanges with small participation in individual islands,” he noted.
“If you would ask any of us would we like to have one financial services commission or one financial services regulator for banks and insurance companies, absolutely!
“It’s a great nuisance to deal with 14 different regulators, particularly with all of the new regulations that are coming out that are really internationally driven and affect us as
small entities. Small entities having to manage relationships with multiple regulators is a cost which then makes us uncompetitive, and we don’t understand that’s the reason that we make ourselves uncompetitive,” Warner said.
(SC)Source: Nation
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Applications up to 67
Bajans urged to reflect
With Kadooment Day and Emancipation Day being celebrated on Monday and Tuesday, respectively, Acting Prime Minister Santia Bradshaw is urging Barbadians to use the break for a time of reflection on the past and future.
She made the comments after being sworn in as Acting Prime Minister by Governor General Dame Sandra Mason, as Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley went on holiday yesterday until August 18.
Bradshaw told Barbadians she wanted them to appreciate this was not a normal environment “we were operating in”.
“Most of us would have no doubt been in costumes and would have been revelling during the upcoming holidays. However, I think that this is going to be a time of reflection of not only the past, but also looking forward to the future as well. I want to encourage Barbadians to adhere to the protocols,” she said. (BGIS) Just over six months after Barbados officially opened up its medicinal cannabis industry, there has been a near 200 per cent increase in the number of applications across the eight categories of licences.
This has occurred, says chief executive officer of the Barbados Medicinal Cannabis Licensing Authority, Dr Shantal Munro-Knight, despite a more than two-month setback due to the COVID-19 pandemic.
She revealed that the number of applications in draft had grown from 15 in January to 67. However, no medicinal cannabis licences have been issued for any of the categories.
Munro-Knight was outlining the plans for the burgeoning local sector during a webinar hosted by the Barbados Chamber of Commerce and Industry yesterday.
She pointed out, however, that only one application had been fully submitted thus far while a further six were awaiting the receipt of additional documentation. An application is only considered to have been submitted if it is accompanied by all of the requisite documentation, the payments have been made and it is going through the four-month vetting process.
“We have not issued any licences and that is one of the things that is creating confusion because people are bringing in medicinal cannabis products that come through the Ministry of Health and Wellness. The process would have started in January 2021, and we have 67 applications in draft at the moment.
“Across the drafts we would have had applications for all eight categories, which includes areas such as cultivation and processing. In one case, we have two applicants that have applied for seven licences, but we are seeing most of the applicants going towards cultivation and retail distributor.”
Munro-Knight said that despite licences not being issued, the interest thus far augured well for the sector, with Barbados on par or, in some cases, ahead of its regional counterparts at the same stage of the game.
“. . . For us at this stage to have the number of applications, we count that as extremely good when we do an informal comparison with our regional counterparts when they started.
“We have only been open
for six months – January 18 was when we opened for applications – and to have seven that are entrained to come through is a good pace and it gives us a good indication of the trends.”
Munro-Knight said the multibillion-dollar global industry had grown within the environment of COVID-19 as people were now clamouring for alternative therapeutics.
(CLM)Source: Nation
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“Because the sharp economic decline last year was due to a mandated lockdown of domestic commerce and tourism, an avoidance of lockdowns in 2021 and a safe reopening to tourism would have ushered in double-digit economic growth this year. Economists call this type of growth ‘base effects’, that is, a climb back from a very low base of economic activity,” he further explained.
Forte said the Central Bank report “merely verified that the risks posed to Barbados’ economic recovery by government’s missteps have come home to roost”.
Source: Barbados Today -
@John A
It appears that the 5:18 post is consistent with what you stated here. -
@Theo
Yes the Barbados Today article locally and those in the Financial Times, Bloomberg , Fortune and many others are all saying the same thing. Their point of reference is a return to pre covid economic activity. Anything else is not even being discussed now. As for the USA I read yesterday that they are confident when the July numbers come in they will be back to pre covid economic levels. Germany and many others will be there sometime between the 3rd and 4th quarter. Some of the smaller economies are also confident they will be there by the end of the 3rd quarter. Once that happens then of course we can start back doing year to year comparisons and be accurate on speaking to true net growth.
You have to remember too many of these economies only lost like 10% of their value as they were well diversified economies. Basically unlike us who insist on having a 1 leg economy built on tourism, they have many irons in the fire. So even the small diversified economies will be back to pre covid levels by year end. We on the other hand who refuse to diversify, will languish behind them for years probably, even though we have low hanging fruit like alternative energy and food production we can move on quickly.
We will of course spend our time discussing a republic instead.
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@John A
An intelligent people should be able to ‘walk and chew gum’ at the same time.
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Donna
5.5 % is not good new.
You would have to explain that further. Is it not good news that there is some positive growth or is the growth not good enuff news ( as we all would like it to be a lot more)?
lets look at it from your base year 2019. In q2 2020 (lock down period) the economy had negative (decreased by) 27% growth. That is it still generated 73% 0f 2019 economic activity even though we were shut down (not 0).
We are now back to 78.5% of 2019 q2 gdp
What activities happened in 2021 q2 that we would have a greater increase the the 5.5%?
Yes, we opened back up but wasn’t it a gradual reopening from the shut down earlier this year? Wasnt there still and still is certain restraints in place.Maybe the loss of tourism (only) knocked 22 % off the economy and the shut down knocked off another 5% and that has now returned in this report.
The difference in tourist arrivals was just over 10K. how much or what %age does that give to GDP?
I stand with my fellow bumble bee Lorenzo the 5.5% and any positive growth is good. it is way better than negative 5.5% or any negative growth which would have be not good (bad)
would i have preferred it to be 10.15, 20%? sure!
But on the ground what happened that would push it so high? -
@John2
You are arguing nonsense. The sensible thing is to always invoke meaning to numbers for it to make sense.
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Of course the 5:18 post agrees with what John A said.
Common sense should have sufficed.
If you are shut and you open, you will have growth in activity.
You don’t need to study economics at university to understand that.
You know statistics. That is enough. The analytical methodology is not specific to economics.
It’s all about the base year.
We KNOW we cannot be back to 2019 levels.
We could not have expected it without major changes in what we are doing.
What we need to do, while we figure out how to earn more foreign exchange is SAVE FOREIGN EXCHANGE.
Simple things like reducing electricity generated from oil imports and growing more of our own food would help.
Every citizen also can do their part on an individual basis by conserving water and reducing electricity use, driving less and buying local when available. Every little bit helps.
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… and mathematically incorrect.
If you had 100 dollars and it decrease to $73, then a 5.5% increase is not $5.5 ($4.02). it is positive but smaller than you think.Hate to be petty, but it may convince some that their thinking is deeply flawed.
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I had to mention John A for what he wrote was dismissed as ‘BS’. It was really a snipe😀
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John 2,
Let me try one more time!
Growth was INEVITABLE as soon as we opened back up!
You are doing spin. Of course, it would have been bad news if we had opened up and there was no growth. But 5% growth will not save us from ruin.
It kinda like if your glass had a single sip of water and you filled it up five percent more. Still less than half full. More than half empty.
You will eventually die of thirst.
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For economic reports – (and this has be so from the time the lion at gun hill was a cub) – the standard is to report q/q and or y/y this has been as is so for the CB of Barbados , St lucia, Guyana, USA, Britian etc and even business line GM, Ford , Amazon , Cave Shepard. Massy, Goddards, etc.
Its then left up to individuals/ companies to compares those reports with any period that the want to.
For example USA will report growth of x% for q2 2021 when compared to q2 2020. Reporter and economists on CNBC, bloomberg, financial times etc are the one who will then compared that report back to pre covid time ( or in other reccessions to the time before the recession started).
There is a difference between an economic report and an economist report. The economist use the economic report to make their reports/comments. The economic report is the standard CB or company report – it follow the same pattern of reporting over and over and over, q after q after q after q , y after y after , y after y ( from the time the lion was a cub ).
Even foolish me first took a look to see where were compared to last year then i check to see compared to 1919 you dont need to have an economic back ground to know or understand that.
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ok donna
I got it. the 5% was not good enuff for you. you want you glass to be full from the first drop of water.
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Donna pea brain you are not the only one with an accounting background on here.I also have a background in accounting and economics so your calling fancy terms ain, t saying nothing.Normally when comparing quarters you compare with the year before not two or ten years before..How many international countries have reached pre covid standards?I stand with John 2 that any growth in this period without a major contribution from tourism is good news..At least until tourism fully opens back up.As far as borrowing is concerned one has to survive today before you can think of tomorrow and any repayment.
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TheO
Yes you are
I was not being exact
u can call names too -
For some of us looking at real improvement the baseline has to be pre Covid performance. The governor can report based on standard presentation format, for some of us looking at the performance of Barbados economy being sustained to ensure quality of life, we are not convinced. This is where honest commentary must start.
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and once again
The CB report has in a chart that you can compare 2021, to 2020 to 2019 …. etc if you need that infomation.
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We are not taking about looking at a chart. We are discussing the talking points, what the media is running with, the political spin.
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David
That commentary will/ is coming for outside of the central bank and after its report. as is happening all over the world economies
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Did you see the headline in the Nation newspaper?
Our leaders have a responsibility to set realistic expectations for regular folk.
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david
No. when check the nation this morning it did not have that in. and i am not subscribed to the nation so i g=dont get the full article/s
If there is a problem with the CB reporting then just send a note or by now he probably noted the concerns.
I remember a time last year where i ask you here on BU to ask him to make an adjustment on his reporting and for the next couple of reports he did. -
The headline was â5.5% Growthâ.
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Fleabrain,
Judging from the quality of your contributions I find it hard to believe that you have the background you stated. You are semi-literate at best. I don’t know anybody with that background who thinks or communicates as poorly as you do.
John 2,
You are soooo missing my point! I am saying that with the covid situation being what it is, with tourism not likely to rebound in the foreseeable future, we are in serious trouble.
We cannot sit here waiting for covid to go away. We have to start looking at how we are going to survive without normal levels of tourism.
I am not hearing any drastic change in mindset towards our economy. There is nothing that will effect an immediate turn around but we must start yesterday.
This pandemic is not the fault of this administration. I have no quarrel with their handling of the situation so far.
The resulting poor economic performance is not the fault of this administration either.
But we must look to the future! 5% will not sustain us.
What are we going to do about it besides borrow, beg the world powers to do right (lol) and wait for tourism to return?
We cannot borrow our way out of this. That is the equivalent of being on life support. Necessary but not desirable. Eventually the machines will be turned off.
We CANNOT trust the world powers to do the right thing by us. Look at Biden’s tax plan!
We cannot depend on rebounding tourism. The virus is running rampant again.
I am saying that the Government is tinkering whereas we need to have serious conversations about how we are going to build a new engine as quickly as possible.
What is our plan?
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@Donna
When it comes to being correct you have a 95% rating.
The missing 5%?. When you disagree with me 😃@Lorenzo
This comedian tried and failed again. -
Donna you can believe what you like i do not give a rat, s ass.You are full of yourself with sa lot of self praise which old people always state is no praise.I can say the same for you as generally you post a lot of shite.Therefore i also think of you as semi literate but enough of you.I am wasting valuable time debating with an idiot.
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I am not hearing any drastic change in mindset towards our economy.** There is nothing that will effect an immediate turn around but we must start yesterday.**
Xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Donna
Data a lir to g’et my head around at the present time . Lets start by tou expanding and the hughlighted part – it seems conflicting to what i Think You are trying to say ( at my first Reading of it).
As it Seem to me that You are expecting a dramitic turn aroundIn other words u Got me a bit confused
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We cannot sit here waiting for covid to go away. We have to start looking at how we are going to survive without normal levels of tourism.
Agree that covid is not going away….. but neither are we going back to the level of shut down that we had in early covid.
with the vaccinations going on tourism will be playing a greater roll in our recovery. The sit here and waiting period has passed. -
Fleabrain,
Not even Mia would agree with you on that.
Ask enuff!
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And romanizing a 5.5% growth in an economy almost 100 dependent on tourism is the concern.
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John 2,
No, no, NO!
NOT A DRAMATIC TURNAROUND! A PLAN FOR TURNING IT AROUND IN THE FUTURE!
P.S. In case you have not noticed, viruses MUTATE. THIS VIRUS IS MUTATING RAPIDLY. VACCINE EFFICACY IS NOT GUARANTEED AGAINST NEW VARIANTS. THE SITUATION HAS WORSENED. THIS IS NOT DONE YET. YOU HAVE NO IDEA WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT.
It is better to plan for the worst while hoping for the best.
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