Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in the first half of 2021 and takes questions from the media and the live online audience.
Central Bank of Barbados
Review of Barbados Economy January to June 2021
Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in the first half of 2021 and takes questions from the media and the live online audience. Central Bank of Barbados
151 responses to “Review of Barbados Economy January to June 2021”
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Capable seniors should stay on the job????…..hog wash, give the young a chance, you had your kick at the cat. If you dont have young people working your asking for trouble. Pass on your knowledge…retire at a reasonable point… enjoy the time you have left …I for one do not want to see a 65 yr old stripper most people know when it is time to leave but some do not and need a push. Lets cap the age for senators at 50 before their faces start to collapse from sucking on the public tit for so long.
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Gov
My question where is this 5 percent growth coming from -
Blah, blah, blah!
Tried listening and gave up. What can he say that we don’t already know?
And what is there to discuss?
Tinkering with our old engine will keep us spluttering along like a juck-a-juck car, backfiring every ten seconds.
Time they admit that unless this covid is conquered worldwide, with our current plan, we will soon dead stop.
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@ Donna
“ Tinkering with our old engine will keep us spluttering along like a juck-a-juck car, backfiring every ten seconds.“Well said !
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5% Must be laundering to reach 3 Trillion, They will never stop until they are stopped!
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The night watchman did not ask that 5% question – oh no no no
She just “play on”
Listen to the political meetings when the Bell ring
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The US economy grew 1.6% in the quarter and 6.5% for the year. There was a time it would be good news for Barbados as a good indicator to forecast. With COVID 19 about to dampen travel âHouston, we have a problemâ.
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The quarterly MAGIC SHOW report from the Central Bank government puppet, seems like a repeat of the last 20+ quarterly reports. Things to note the Forgiven Currency Debt levels are once again increasing, interesting DEBT increasing is flaunted as a POSITIVE, oh yes its Bajan math.
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Reading through the Magic Report I see that Tourism has FLAT LINED, DEAD, however there as a miraculous “estimated” growth in the last quarter of 5.5% in this sector. Imagine the “estimated” GROWTH that could be achieved if we could KILL OFF TOURISM completely, infinity comes to mind, BAJAN math at its BEST.
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The Central Bank Governors “weed” is potent stuff, Hallucinations of grand proportions. Maybe Barbados should package this variety for sale in world marker cannabis shops, a win win for local government, all financials look “GOOD” and foreign currency rolls in. Food for thought. Could base new REPUBLIC constitution on this endeavor and have President declared for life.
Just saying.
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The central bank is suppose to report on the performance/non of the economy. The government deals with policy measures.
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226million in borrowed debt which has pushed Barbados level to extreme heights one again
Levels which caused this present govt to place blame and shame on Minister of Finance Chris Sinckler
Never mind that Mia had the mitigated shameless gall to place Chris on one of Govt Finance committes Phew -
When you flat pun you tail from a lockndown last year and you up 5 % this year wunna really did expect different?
I mean if I did had my shop closed last Saturday half day because of rain and this Saturday sun hot and the one door shop did open all day wunna wouldn’t expect me to sell at least 5% more this Saturday?
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Tell me how it compare to the same quarters of 2019 please as that is the pre covid period we aiming to recover to.
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@John A
If you sold 100 widgets prior quarter and 105 in reporting quarter what does that workout to be?
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@David.
That is the mistake you and them making right there friend.
You can’t compare performance in a vacuum without factoring in conditions. Let me give you a simple example.
A car on the same straight road on the same day does 100mph going in one direction. It then turns around and does a 105 mph in the opposite direction. Does that mean the car is suddenly 5% faster? No it doesn’t because you haven’t factored in conditions for comparison. You didn’t factor in for example that when it went up the road at 100mph you are going into the wind and coming back down you had the wind in your rear!
So straight line comparisons without factoring in conditions is a serious mistake many make. That is why I said to get a fair idea of where we are in terms of recovery one would have to go back to 2019 periods vs 2021.
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@John A
What if you sold 150 widgets three quarters before.But it is important that we begin to Rick upwards…
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BS
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Next we Will heat we need to go back to 2997/8/9
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@J2
You are at loss for words…
You should hit the ball for six instead of standing in the crease muttering 😃 -
2007
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@John A
Just explaining the straight line %.
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A car going at 100 Mph In a hesd Wind is still going at 100mph
At 105 In a tailwind its still traveling at 105 mph
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Stick to what you know bout whatever that is 🤣
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David you can not compare a straight line comparison on 2 quarters when I was open for business for the period and the other was under lock down for a substantial period. It is not practical.
As i said its like taking the sales from one Saturday where you were open half day and comparing it to the next Saturday where you were open all day. For those that don’t understand this there is little hope for explaining it.
Forget the background clucking and think on it. For a fair comparison the factors for the period must be similar. For the fowls that want to argue this tell them to bring the 2019 figures for the same period and lets compare where we are in real terms. Left out the party crap and let us focus on where we are in real terms and where we have to go so as to at least return to a pre covid situation.
Of course to do that some may find embarrassing so they will not want to do that! LOL
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@ Theo
We have for the first time in decades a clear line drawn in the economic sand. We have pre covid economic levels and post covid economic levels. Prior to covid you could compare quarters as most of the conditions in the economy were relatively similar year to year. In 2020 all that sadly change when thanks to covid global economies got cat spraddled. Now while those like Germany were not hit as hard, the tourists based ones were devastated.
Having said the above now if we want to return to 2019 pre covid levels of activity and employment, we must compare 2021 to that so we can see how far we have to go to get there.
Basically let’s say your sales fell 40% in 2020 over 2019 then recovered by 5% in 2021, you still need to regain an additional 35% in sales to just get back to 2019 levels. So yes the 5 % growth sound nice politically, but in real terms of recovery to where we can put people back to work where are we really?
Fluff vs harsh reality.
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It’s not rocket science. Shrewd and the best investors are always a good mix of “fundamentals” versus “technicals” but unfortunately our COB governor always tries to bamboozle us with the technicals – fancy charts, ratios and percentages.
Fundamentally Barbados is not earning FX at the rate it spends and fundamentally more of our precious FX is directed to interest and loan repayment leaving nothing for investment and development spending. So fundamentally we are broke with no ability for government to invest it’s way out of it. Fundamentally.
No need for the fancy jargon from folks in ivory towers who do not create a single job despite a title that presumes they do. Another colonial nugget…titles that only tread water
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“For a fair comparison the factors for the periods must be similar.”
@ John A
You are correct………. assuming ‘all things being equal.’
That’s one of the reasons why economists use the term ‘ceteris paribus.’
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Artax
Thanks, was trying to keep it simple so didn’t want to go to CP or R=N/D. LOL
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After listening to the Gov.and his spin on economic growth
I couldn’t help but wonder which Barbados is he speaking of
Firstly the economic levels tells a different story
Govt continuation of borrowing tells a whole different story
Their is no new investor activity
But then again gov. might be seeing an uptake in rebuilding houses damaged by hurricane as a creation of growth also an area that supplies ample work for the construction industry -
Making a Mountain Out of a mole hill
What about the pre and post great recession periods – for the Lind In the sand ?
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As Obama Said
Is like a car going over a cliff
U Got to g’et it stop before u climb back Out of the cliff. U cant g’et back to 19 level unless u go Pass 20 first We are now 5 % above the point where Were at at this time last year.Ideally we would like to be back above 2009 levels. So should we not be making Out comparisons to 2009?
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Well it getting late so let me put the fowls to bed with a little bedtime reading.
For those interested in financial facts as opposed to political fiction, I want wunna to read the Financial Times in the UK dated May2 2021 and pay special attention to an article by Chris Giles. In it he speaks to some of the economies that will return to pre covid levels by the end of this year.
Now dem is only the Financial Times so don’t pay them and Bloomberg no mind, when what all of them are now comparing is economic activity TODAY compared to PRE COVID LEVELS. I mean ignore them cause them probably does support the Dems too. Cause you know once you share facts that don’t support the divine leaders you is a Dem in the eyes of the fowls. LOL
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Maybe with all the Reading do (and i know the fred Education was wasted on You) then You should read the damn financial report and You Will see the the figure comparison for 2019 is In the report .
I Think they May have gone back about give years
But then You May not be interested In facts only to make axmountain Out of a mole Hill
The cb gov dont give Out his information to please one person
All the relevant info is In the report for those that are interested and Can comprehend
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Standard reporting for gdp as praticed In most counrties = comparison for q/q and/or Y/Y.
Fact or political fiction?
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Did the financial time or Bloomberg advocating for the dropping of the Q/Q comparison for gdp reporting ?
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It’s a pity you can comprehend the 5 percent growth on the front page of today paper WAS BASED ON 2021 OVER 2020 LOL
You either don’t understand what you read or them red tint lenses you got don’t understand what others write. Every report has in historic data as has been the case since the lion at gun hill was a cub. THE POINT IS THE COMPARISON BEING MADE FOR BROWNIE POINTS IS THE QUARTERS OF 2021 VS 2020 WHEN THE ISLAND DID SHUT DOWN! You understand that now?
Anyhow i going left you to argue a car going into the wind and one with the wind behind it don’t matter. You better call the fellows at Bushy Park and let the explain that to you as well! LOL
Lord I deading here with laughter 🤣😂
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Lisa Cummins is doing her best to drum up our deflated tourism industry.
“The BTMI has started its branding and marketing campaign – Sweet Summer Savings”. Interesting choice of words as it reminded me of GP’s sadly missed Sunday Column on BU which he called “Sweet Sunday Sermon”.
https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/07/29/renewed-effort-to-get-more-us-visitors/
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Jeep making urself a fool
For all These years we being discussing the financial reports. I assumed that we all know the the reports are for the quarter of the current year compared to the corresponding quarter of the previous year
You really need to go to skeer and stop scratchings un the Dark
Fyi. I Got muy report here on BU
The link is right there with all the info by CB
You need to read it fully instead of just the newpaper reports or Alonso with them -
One thing though for a man that pretends he dont like the politics. You does sure try to throw political jabs as deflections when you cant bring nothing Else But BS
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Wall Street Journal July 25th by Paul Hannon.
This is another good article for those that read publications other than party manifestos. In it he states that by the end of July 2021 the US economy will be at a level of GDP for the first time that will be slightly above pre covid levels.
I can’t understand why all these “brand name” globally respected financial publications all now comparing econimc recovery to pre covid levels and not 2020. Wunna feel it is a conspiracy to deflate the egos of some small minded people or them is just financial realist trained In the school of economics? I going have to write them and complain that them wrong and should read the views on BU.
Them might come back and say B Who? Lol. Anyhow folks goodnight I had enough fun for 1 night. Wunna read the articles though cause them is we tourist markets, so I glad to see them return TO PRE COVID LEVELS OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY. Sorry I had to get in that last dig!🤣
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Mobile money in a relatively under developed country IS A NO BRAINER.
https://thecfma.org/the-economic-impact-of-mobile-money-adoption-in-somalia/
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Every quarter the fed give q/q it is ledt up to who ever to compare it with what ever period they want to
Same with CB
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Every report has in historic data as has been the case since the lion at gun hill was a cub.
Xxxxxxxxxxxxcxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Do You even understand what that says?
Now You want the reporting to be chance to please ur ego or to put a political damper ob the good news of the 5% ?
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So how tou want the report to be ??
The economy green In the second quarter at a rate the put us at -15% when compared to the same quarter of 2019?
And if the economy never g’et back to the lavel of 2019 untill 2030 , must Every quarter report by the CB be compared to 2019?
Freaking BS
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Feed prices to rise by 26%
By Colville Mounsey colvillemounsey@nationnews.com
Come next month, Barbadians could be paying significantly more for poultry and meat.
This is because Pinnacle Feeds Ltd, the country’s largest supplier of livestock feed, will be increasing the cost of its products by 26 per cent.
However, head of the Barbados Egg and Poultry Producers Association, Stephen Layne, has warned that the fallout, if not mitigated at the governmental level, could kill off many small farmers financially.
In a letter from the Barbados Agricultural Society (BAS) to Minister of Agriculture and Food Security, Indar Weir, a copy of which was obtained by the Weekend Nation, it was stated that the hike in feed prices was as a result of sustained increases in the price of corn on the world markets from $3.50 per bushel up to $7.
The correspondence, signed by BAS chief executive officer James Paul, stated there were reports that the spot price was already $6.54 per bushel, still way above the average price of corn. It added that these high feed prices were not likely to be transitory, but rather a “new normal”.
“The reports received on crop expectations in Brazil and the [United States] are not providing any comfort to the livestock industry, with dry conditions continuing in the USA Northern Plains and parts of the Corn Belt, just as a cold front moved into Brazil. The outlook is not good and it does appear a new normal is being established.
“Consequently, we have met with our farmers and our stakeholders in the industry who are of the view that the price of chicken and other meat products will increase as a result of the increased price of feed,” the letter stated.
Weir did not comment on the issue, only saying he was otherwise engaged.
When contacted, Paul said the letter was not intended for public circulation and it would not be appropriate to comment on the issue before talks were held with the minister this weekend.
The Weekend Nation spoke with senior manager responsible for purchasing at Robert’s Manufacturing, Adrian Yarde, who would only say those prices
were determined by international factors and could go down should circumstances change.
However, Layne made it clear this was simply too big a blow for many small poultry farmers to sustain.
“The 26 per cent is the anticipated increase right now from them, that is what they indicated to us in a meeting. The industry is going to have to respond, or a lot of our farmers are going to be out of business. That response is going to have to be a rise in the price of their products.
“This is going to impact all livestock farmers, but the chickens are the ones that will be totally dependent on processed feed, so we are going to have some real challenges going ahead. We have not had a price increase in the industry because for years Government has been asking us to hold strain and we have been doing so for donkey years,” said Layne.
Some farmers have indicated that poultry prices are likely to go up by the same 26 per cent, given that they are already under pressure with increased water bills and cost of transportation. However, Layne said he was not prepared to hazard a guess at this time as much would depend on talks with the minister.
“We are awaiting a meeting with the Minister of Agriculture to see what he can do to mitigate some of those price increases. I can tell you that Minister Weir has a very good track record of working with us and he has made every effort to help, sometimes reaching across ministries that he does not have direct administration over. So in fairness to him, we need to have that meeting first,” he added.Source: Nation
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Long road back, says Naitram
By Barry Alleyne barryalleyne@nationnews.com
It’s going to be a long, hard road to recovery for the Barbados economy, says president of the Barbados Economic Society, Dr Simon Naitram.
He was responding to Tuesday’s secondquarter report by Central Bank Governor Cleviston Haynes which showed the economy grew by 5.5 per cent in the short term, with the Bank maintaining its overall forecast of 1.1 per cent growth for the remainder of 2021.
Naitram was not that optimistic about a quick turnaround.
“It’s now clear that this isn’t going to be a swift and easy recovery – the pandemic won’t simply disappear one day. The recovery will be slow, and in the words of the Governor, the best we can hope for over the coming year is ‘strong, but gradual’,” Naitram told the Weekend Nation.
The economist said one insight from the Governor’s report was that Barbados was at the stage of building a platform for beyond the pandemic. “How we choose to build that platform determines whether the recovery is fair and sustainable over the next two to five years. The increasing frequency of these events – the pandemic, the volcano, the hurricane – requires us to build a more resilient society. Resilience requires greater investment in the NIS [National Insurance Scheme], in health care, in education, in child care, in public housing, in public transport, in welfare,” said the assistant lecturer at the University of the West Indies’ Cave Hill Campus.
“The need for public investment makes the Government’s fiscal position more difficult.
Loosening its budget slightly means the Government will reach its debt target of 60 per cent of GDP [gross domestic product] later than originally planned, but there is no doubt the moment demands increased spending.”
Chairman of the Barbados Private Sector Association (BPSA), Edward Clarke, said the quarterly report produced no surprises, and in some instances was rather disappointing for a country trying to rebound.
Disappointing
“It was disappointing news because we would have hoped to see some more growth in the quarter, but with the tourism arrivals we did see, it’s not surprising at all. I don’t think we should have expected much more from the economy because of the various stoppages that we’ve had because of the pandemic, the volcanic ash or the storm ( Hurricane Elsa). It is quite evident that we are dependent on tourism, and we need to see tourism back, so a lot will depend on the vaccinations and the ability to attract back the tourism market we had been able to do pre the COVID-19 pandemic.”
The BPSA head also stressed the need for Government’s capital projects to “take off”, especially with renewable energy”, to drive growth in the productive sectors.
“We do have to look at changing and diversifying but while supplementing tourism, since it is such a huge driver of our economy through significant capital and human resource investment . . . We also have a services sector that we need to push, especially arts and culture,” Clarke said. President of the Barbados Chamber of Commerce & Industry, Anthony Branker, also pointed to the importance of a resurgent tourism sector.
“Clearly the economy of Barbados is driven by the tourism industry, and unemployment is still
around the 17 per cent rate. In order for us to get the private sector going, we need to encourage tourists to come back to the island,” he said.
Branker added the focus heading into the final part of 2021 should be reassuring visitors that Barbados remained a safe place to visit.Source: Nation
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Verla calls on Mia to bring Budget
President of the Democratic Labour Party (DLP), Verla De Peiza, yesterday challenged Prime Minister Mia Amor Mottley to bring a Budget sooner rather than later.
In a release, she said Tuesday’s second quarter report on the economy by Central Bank Governor Cleviston Haynes was enough reason to demand the current administration provide a financial pathway for the country.
“The statistics of the most recent Central Bank report bear absolutely no relation to the reality faced by many Barbadians today,” De Peiza said.
“It is meaningless to the average Barbadian to report growth of 5.5 per cent in the economy without stressing what this is when compared to the previous period and/or the same period of last year. Because that is the only context within which it makes sense and we know 5.5 per cent over nothing is really no growth,” she argued.
The attorney said the scale of the economic recession Barbados found
itself in called the statistics into question. She noted the lack of growth had taken an enormous toll on households, on businesses, on jobs and opportunities.
“This is compounded by this Government’s failure to care and mitigate these outcomes by creating a safety net for its people,” she said, while asking why there had been no extended access to unemployment benefits, as done by the former DLP administration with less resources than what the current Government continually boasts of.
“Why have there been no holistic measures to cushion the impact of rising prices in the market?” she asked. “What makes matters even worse is this Government’s failure to honour its promise to workers to secure their severance payments. Hundreds still cannot get from their former employers.
“All of these issues can be addressed ably by the presentation of a Budget. The country needs a clear policy plan. This would provide direction for a planned recovery, as opposed to the current perception of this Government holding its breath while waiting for tourism to take a breath.”
De Peiza, whose leadership of the DLP will be challenged next month, said a Budgetary Proposal would also set out a road map for diversification of the economy, particularly in relation to agriculture, which ought not to be allowed to flounder at so critical a juncture in the island’s history. (BA/PR)Source: Nation
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What is Starbucks a good sign of Minister? Another example of imported taste?
Symmonds: Starbucks a good sign
Despite challenges facing Barbados’ economy as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the ash fall from the La Soufriere volcano and Hurricane Elsa, the country remains open for investment, and international coffee house Starbucks’ new operation is a clear signal of that.
So said Minister of Energy, Small Business and Entrepreneurship Kerrie Symmonds while speaking during its media launch yesterday at One Haggatt Hall, Haggatt Hall, St Michael.
“Barbados must remain open for business and we as a people must do all the things that are necessary in order to help this country stay afloat and to help us as individuals and families collectively to be able to hold body and soul together. I warmly welcome this investment,” he said.
The minister said there were some clear similarities in terms of social-economic realities between 1937 and today, and urged Barbadians to never be so foolish as to bury their heads, like the ostrich, in the sand.
“We in Barbados today are caught in a vice-grip between social and economic circumstances that are more out of the COVDI-19 pandemic. They have mushroomed into very difficult economic conditions, not only here but globally.
“We feel already the sense of sacrifice that many fellow Barbadians must endure because the quality of life that they enjoyed prior to COVID-19 they simply cannot experience today,” he said, adding that it was not business as usual for Barbados.
Caribbean Coffee Traders Ltd (CCTL) regional director for Starbucks, Roxanne Rose, said the idea to set up shop in Barbados had been brewing for some time. She said Barbados was the fifth Caribbean market where they had opened, adding to Jamaica, Turks and Caicos, Cayman Islands and Panama.
“In these unprecedented times, we’ve all had to work harder to stay connected while staying safe. So, it’s important that we create a welcoming environment while continuing to keep the health and well-being
of our partners and customers top of mind,” she said.
She added they had partnered with local recruitment agencies and would employ about 15 baristas to help locals enjoy the Starbucks experience. ( RA)Source: Nation
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