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Preparing for the COVID 19 Mutant

Posted by Lyall Small to the Covid 19 Update blog in response to commenter Critical Anlayzer and the Blogmaster to concerns about new strains of the virus. I think that the difficulties that Barbados has been experiencing in dealing with the new clusters over the last 3 weeks or so is going to be very…

Posted by Lyall Small to the Covid 19 Update blog in response to commenter Critical Anlayzer and the Blogmaster to concerns about new strains of the virus.

I think that the difficulties that Barbados has been experiencing in dealing with the new clusters over the last 3 weeks or so is going to be very important in showing the way towards developing additional home grown or regional methods for combating the virus, especially since the cost of the new vaccines might be somewhat prohibitive and indeed that new mutant strains could make some of these vaccines ineffective.

I saw a report recently that the new English mutant of the virus is not only more infective than the older variant but was also likely to result in more deaths. In addition, there was a suggestion that the existing vaccines might not be effective against one or more of the new variants. If this is true we might have to take a new tack and use a new suite of methods to exclude and control that new strain when it gets here. If the effectiveness of vaccines is compromised other methods may have to be developed and used to control the virus.

High Relative Humidity has been claimed to be a low-level environmental deterrent to high infectivity levels of the virus. High temperatures has also been claimed as being a factor that operates in a similar manner. So too have been Sunlight (high UV levels) and consequential Vitamin D levels. I have not seen the research which has fully demonstrated these effects on the virus but the claims of the efficacy of these factors could be researched and the results incorporated into protocols for control of the spread of the virus in combination with the tried and true use of masks, social distancing, washing of hands and even exclusion.

Tracking Bracelet

The work that has started with the Electronic GPS bracelets on monitoring and control of the movement of visitors suggests to me that Government might be able to significantly reduce its overall Covid-19 quarantine costs by introducing a system where non-symptomatic locals who have been in contact with positive cases could be also fitted with these bracelets and be self-quarantined at home with regular visits by the Covid-units Doctors and Nurses instead of immediately being put in an expensive Government quarantine or isolation facility once they test positive for the virus.

200 responses to “Preparing for the COVID 19 Mutant”

  1. WURA-War-on-U Avatar
    WURA-War-on-U

    The dude in the briefing explained clearly that Covid is going nowhere, as we have been hearing for months and months, so first let that sink in. They have no control over it and aren’t likely to get any.

  2. David Avatar
    David

    United States joins COVID vaccine push for poor nations, stays in WHO – United States joins COVID vaccine push for poor nations, stays in WHO: https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/01/21/united-states-joins-covid-vaccine-push-for-poor-nations-stays-in-who/

  3. David Avatar
    David

    With all the press conferences we have had the blogmaster is unsure why it has taken this long to dispatch samples to the lab given the urgent need to know to update public communication and public health strategies to effectively fight COVID-19.

    Samples sent to Port of Spain to check for new strain of COVID-19 – Samples sent to Port of Spain to check for new strain of COVID-19: https://barbadostoday.bb/2021/01/21/samples-sent-to-port-of-spain-to-check-for-new-strain-of-covid-19/

  4. Crusoe Avatar
    Crusoe

    I agree with what the author has posited. It is becoming clear that the virus is becoming embedded, as not enough was done early by China, or globally, with the idiot Trump backing out of the WHO and not supporting measures to combat the virus.

    However, I also wonder if the recent variants, surfacing suddenly as soon as the vaccines were announced as ready, is not peculiar. Although I generally do not believe in conspiracy theories, I am wondering if the virus is not a deliberate attempt at depopulation. Not the vaccines, that silly theory about Gates and so on is nonsense. But the virus itself, is it a very well designed biological weapon? Moreso, we see how the treatment on poor health people like Trump has worked. If he actually had it. So, why is that treatment not widely available? That part makes no sense and no, money is not the answer, as it is a global issue.

    But back to the actual dealing with it. Yes, the Caribbean is in a special place, where there is opportunity to operate in ventilated spaces. The building style from developed countries of closed air environment, needs to be thrown out and those buildings retrofitted to open air environments. Let the breeze flow and the fresh air in. This part has been evident for years and one reason why sick building syndrome happens in Barbados. Because air conditioning and high humidity do not go well together, when building are not maintained especially.

    Idiocy of the highest order. Maybe that is an area where the architects and engineers can assist and push, as David suggested, redesign and retrofit of all of these buildings.

    The ideas on local environment make sense, if we compare to what has happened in the large countries during winter. The cases numbers, even before the variants, increased. The colder and darker weather clearly helped the virus.

    Together with the various treatments and what the author has raised as to the local environment, the island should be able to move forward. But it must move forward. People need money and a country cannot shut down forever.

    We can hope that the vaccines still give some protection, but in the meantime, move forward with a plan to deal with the crisis.

  5. Crusoe Avatar
    Crusoe

    DavidJanuary 23, 2021 4:12 AM I agree. That is not good enough.

  6. David Avatar
    David

    @Crusoe

    Covid 19 has exposed the way we have been doing things in Barbados and many other countries. We must desist from politicizing the challenge we have to confront for the foreseeable future. What should be evident by now is that we have to find ways to coexist with the virus. Possibly others to come.

  7. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    Articles and Studies on Vitamin D levels and COVID.

    https://www.healthline.com/health-news/vitamin-d-can-help-reduce-covid19-risks

    https://www.endocrine.org/news-and-advocacy/news-room/2020/study-finds-over-80-percent-of-covid19-patients-have-vitamin-d-deficiency

  8. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

  9. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

  10. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

  11. WURA-War-on-U Avatar
    WURA-War-on-U

    “Although I generally do not believe in conspiracy theories, I am wondering if the virus is not a deliberate attempt at depopulation.”

    man makes plans and our ancestors laugh.

    the ones with all the grandiose depopulation plots for others are the ones very likely to go extinct…unless they’re reabsorbed into the BLACK group, the earth’s original indigenous people, if there’s no ease, the only way for them to survive a raging, shape shifting, wildly mutating virus.

    one plague lasted a whole decade…long time ago

    Karma is a biting bitch…they used a naturally occuring virus for their vile agendas and now it’s out of control.

    Again, for the self hating black faces, our body stores vitamin D, we are melanated people, and as Cuddear said a couple of hours in the sun daily, coupled with the new normal of protecting yourself from infection and it’s a win win for Black skinned people …..let that sink in when you pretend otherwise and continue to adopt a false wannabe white identity that can mean ya death..just because ya so indoctrinated that ya want to be in someone else’s skin..

  12. WURA-War-on-U Avatar
    WURA-War-on-U

    “This part has been evident for years and one reason why sick building syndrome happens in Barbados. Because air conditioning and high humidity do not go well together, when building are not maintained especially.”

    anyone who has lived in cold countries and worked in aircon buildings KNOW that you get 90% poisonous air meaning you breath in what everyone else exhales for 8 or more hours a day and only 10% fresh air is available, not enough to keep lungs healthy, and with all windows closed, chest infections and sick building syndrome is a given….always adopting the negatives from other countries would do that, talking shite about first world status..and end up with a bunch of unhealthy and dead people..

    there should be no airconditioned buildings in sunkissed countries….especially while knowing that leaders like the ones in Barbados have an aversion to maintaining anything.

  13. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    With all the press conferences we have had the blogmaster is unsure why it has taken this long to dispatch samples to the lab given the urgent need to know to update public communication and public health strategies to effectively fight COVID-19…….(Quote)

    Good management of the virus. World class. Let us play a guessing game, rather than get a scientific epidemiological model from which to work.

  14. David Avatar
    David

    You mean the the models being used by the UK, US and Canada?

  15. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    The question to be asked does barbados have the financial resources to combat two strains at the same time

  16. David Avatar
    David

    We do not have a choice unless you believe Barbados is able to construct a cocoon to isolate from the world for the foreseeable future. The virus is not going anywhere soon.

  17. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    We had a choice but the lazy leaders took the worst choice which has depleted our financial resources towards our health system and place country into the foreseeable future of more lockdowns and infections

    Btw did anyone listen to the Canadian economist Carlos Forte comments on govt Covid policies
    His remarks speaks to a great level of concern of govt insistence on not listening to other health officials advice

  18. David Avatar
    David

    Everybody is an expert.

  19. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    DavidJanuary 23, 2021 6:36 AM

    Everybody is an expert

    Xxxxxcc
    Makes for early morning laughter
    and a comment which a paling red feathered bird would make
    In any case that kind of news reel should be posted on BU

  20. David Avatar
    David

    Your advise is noted, we will lickdown Barbados for the next few months until we achieve herd immunity. The blogmaster urge you to wear your mask in the Covid infested country in which you reside. Real Bajans will work together to overcome this chat.

  21. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    David uh full.of jokes sounding like Bostic who said that “this top shall pass”
    That barbados would wrestled COVID to the ground
    Presently barbados has two fights on its hand one of control which now seems to be a fight beyond completion
    Avoiding the risk of having to combat the new mutant
    Pray tell how these two would be accomplished if our borders remain open

  22. David Avatar
    David

    We are not going to lay down and play dead. We will continue to fight to survive which is what being resilient is all about.

  23. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    Btw David take note that those COVID infected countries make daily changes in their policies
    Policies which are in effect geared against increasing infections
    Hence America has instituted a policy wherby citizen or non citizen must present a validated negative test result before entering the country
    No one comes in without the test result
    Now pray tell why hasn’t barbados instituted such a strong policy

  24. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    “Hence America has instituted a policy whereby citizen or non citizen must present a validated negative test result before entering the country. No one comes in without the test result. Now pray tell why hasn’t Barbados instituted such a strong policy.”

    Hmmmm……..

    I believe sometimes you ‘make up things as you go’ and present statements that are inaccurate…… a situation that could be solved, if only you do a little research before posting comments. But the problem is, you’re more interested in criticizing to score cheap political points. unfortunately you’re encouraged and your inaccurate statements endorsed by someone who professes to be a stickler for ‘historical accuracy.’ The hypocrisy is overwhelming.

    Perhaps you may find the below information from Barbados’ COVID-19 travel guidelines, interesting.

    “Persons travelling to Barbados from High and Medium-Risk countries must have a negativeCOVID-19 test result in order to enter the country. These tests must be taken at an accredited or certified facility/laboratory within 3 days PRIOR to arrival. Persons travelling from Low-Risk countries are strongly advised to take a COVID-19 PCR test before arrival. These persons will be allowed to present results of tests taken up to 5 days prior to arrival.”

    “Test results must be submitted via travelform.gov.bb and travellers are required to bring a copy of the results with them. These test will be checked for validity. Persons travelling from countries within the Very Low-Risk category, who have not travelled to or transited through any country designated as High, Medium or Low-Risk within 21 days prior to travel to Barbados, are not required to take a COVID-19 PCR test prior to or on arrival.”

  25. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    The new mutant is nothing to fear and as far as mutations are concerned. If it is more contagious it will most likely also be less deadly.

    What we need to be more concerned with is the collateral deaths and long term health issues caused by solely focusing on COVID. I willing to bet we have more deaths caused by the COVID mitigation measures than from COVID itself.

    That is why properly reported statistics are so important to determine if the cure is worse than the virus by answering questions such as
    – Are stress related deaths and illnesses up?
    – Are suicides up?
    – Is financial ruin increasing? This affects the previous two questions as well as crime rate and future livelihoods amongst other things.

  26. Crusoe Avatar
    Crusoe

    Critical AnalyzerJanuary 23, 2021 7:35 AM

    One the first point. The UK variant is supposed to be 30$ more deadly, per the UK PM. The South Africa variant avoids antibodies against prior infection.

    On the second point, you are right. People have to live. So along with that was discussed above, stick with the rules of masks and washing hands, things need to get moving.

  27. Crusoe Avatar
    Crusoe

    That should be 30% more deadly.

  28. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    Barbados policy does not go far enough
    In that it still allows people to enter without the test followed by barbados having to provide testing and isolation premises for visitors to be quarantine
    I had expected an early morning yardfowl to overlooked such important details of the Barbados Covid policy for visitors to enter
    Meanwhile the USA newly instituted policy is more stringent and takes into consideration a overall view to the nation and people health

  29. angela cox Avatar
    angela cox

    Effective January 26, the Centers of Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will require all air passengers entering the United States (including U.S. citizens and Legal Permanent Residents) to present a negative COVID-19 test, taken within three calendar days of departure or proof of recovery from the virus within the last 90 days​. Airlines must confirm the negative test result or proof of recovery for all passengers two years of age and over prior to boarding. ​Airlines must deny boarding of passengers who do not provide documentation of a negative test or recovery

  30. lawson Avatar
    lawson

    As usual bajans are behind the curve no forward thinking always trying to catch up , I have been social distancing from my wife well before covid. came around.

  31. TLSN Avatar
    TLSN

    @ Hal,
    If the rumours are true, we in the UK will have to forfeit yet another foreign holiday in some far away exotic destination.

    Some people do not get it. They cry out “keep the borders open” or ” we have to learn to co-exist with covid-19″. These people are aware that our government does not have the funds to purchase sufficient levels of the vaccine to treat their population.

    It’s time for these people to put on their big boy’s pants or their big girl’s blouses and for them to develop a home grown domestic/regional market which could possibly be extended to the export market.

    Times have changed. The tourism market will remain dormant for a lengthy period. Thank God!. Let’s get real people.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/23/summer-holidays-cancelled-uk-faces-big-decision-on-border

  32. David Avatar
    David

    And your suggestion is to close the borders and starve. The borders are open but we have protocols to govern entry. Because of the challenge the virus presents we have to continually tweak and enforce rules and exercise self discipline. What we cannot do is retreat to a hole in the ground and pull the cover over our head.

  33. Critical Analyzer Avatar
    Critical Analyzer

    @Crusoe January 23, 2021 7:38 AM

    This is where accuracy in reporting and misrepresenting statistics is of importance. PM Boris Johnson also stated ‘may’ which means they are not sure yet. He should not have only stated facts or state they are investigating. Speculation is for us and the news media, not for officials who should know and not speak suppositions in official reports.

    Secondly the 30% increase is misleading and more fearmongering with statistics. It is from this quote reported on in the Guardian’s rticle based on evidence presented.

    Explaining the scale of the difference, he said for every 1,000 60-year-olds infected with the new strain, perhaps 13 or 14 might be expected to die, compared with 10 in 1,000 for the original strain.

    Strictly comparing the deaths of 10 per thousand vs 13 per thousand is misleading i.e. (13-10)/10 * 100 gave then that 30% increase stat. However, a more accurate representation of the statistic is (13/1000 *100) gives a 1.3% case fatality rate in the new variant vs (10/1000 *100) gives a 1% case fatality rate of the original strain.

    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/new-uk-covid-variant-may-be-more-deadly-says-boris-johnson

    https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/21/uk/coronavirus-variant-uk-intl/index.html

    This is the head reason people like me want the raw numbers and not their interpretation.

  34. WURA-War-on-U Avatar
    WURA-War-on-U

    “It’s time for these people to put on their big boy’s pants or their big girl’s blouses and for them to develop a home grown domestic/regional market which could possibly be extended to the export market.”

    let them keep it up with their dependency tourism with minorities at the top and blacks at the bottom, let’s see how long they last….am taking bets.

    ” I have been social distancing from my wife well before covid. came around.”

    you were long looking for an excuse, hope she gets herself a young stud…lol

  35. TLSN Avatar
    TLSN

    Adolph Hitler, showed how a country can be rebuilt after losing a war. The German nation was humiliated under the treaty of Versailles which was drawn up the victors of the first world war. They had to cede large tracts of territory to other nations. They became pariahs within Europe.

    Under Hitler, the Germans became 100% self-sufficient. We should assimilate Hitler’s ambition to create a strong and self-sufficient nation and not one that is forever focussed on being reliant on the patronage of predominantly racist tourists to earn our keeps. Covid-19 has presented a great opportunity for Barbados to become a wiser and wealthier country.

  36. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    There you go with the personal abuse, which, according to your chairman, is indicative of someone who is unable to sustain a sensible debate. However, ‘be that as it may,’ (if I may borrow one of your phrases), there is no person on BU who epitomizes ‘yard-fowlism,’ other than you.

    You’re giving the impression that visitors are being allowed into Barbados haphazardly……. without direction or planning, when you know that’s not true.

    The only fundamental difference between the USA’s expanded policy and that of Barbados, is:

    “Air passengers are required to get a viral test (a test for current infection) within the 3 days before their flight to the U.S. departs, and provide written documentation of their laboratory test result (paper or electronic copy) to the airline or provide documentation of having recovered from COVID-19. Airlines must confirm the negative test result for all passengers or documentation of recovery before they board. If a passenger does not provide documentation of a negative test or recovery, or chooses not to take a test, the airline must deny boarding to the passenger.”

    The USA announced their expanded policies on January 12, to be implemented two weeks later on January 26. What is there to suggest Barbados not implementing similar policies as well?

    The following link provides useful information as well.

    https://www.ivisa.com/barbados-blog/important-information-about-the-barbados-covid-19-test

  37. WURA-War-on-U Avatar
    WURA-War-on-U

    ya might not have to close the borders, with UK tourists soon to be scared like hell to travel, it may get closed for yalll….THEN WHAT?

    with NO diversified economy in place..

    with medical marijuana opportunity for certain people only being officially rolled out yesterday, when many have long moved on because BLP is so anti-black and full of shit…

    can’t wait to hear the big plan…

  38. Lawson Avatar
    Lawson

    TLSN the govt. doesn’t have enough money, ??? 240000 pop x 20 bucks thats only around 5 million , thats pocket change for some people on the island Melnyk Cow etc . What you have to do is what smart business people do, to the banks ….(if you dont help us we will go bankrupt and you will lose everything ) and the banks give them a bail out . How much do you think those 50 million dollar villas will be worth if the island becomes toxic. I don’t think its about money, maybe politics ,maybe bad advice maybe govt slow to react but what I am sure most of you can agree on ….its trumps fault.

  39. TLSN Avatar
    TLSN

    ” And your suggestion is to close the borders and starve ”

    Are you for real.

    Mendicants to the left of me. Mendicants to the right of me.

    Barbados is an island of mendicants ruled by a class of mendicants.

  40. WURA-War-on-U Avatar
    WURA-War-on-U

    “Covid-19 has presented a great opportunity for Barbados to become a wiser and wealthier country.”

    they love their dependent status and will double down on the idiocy just to keep it…..Covid is nearly 1 year old on the island, bet ya we will still be repeating that for another 3-4 years or however long the virus lasts.

    jackasses are more concerned with showing ya how wrong ya are….even if it’s right before ya drop them in a 6ft hole.

  41. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    @ David BU

    I’m one who is in favour of closing the borders to countries where new variants of COVID-19 have been identified.

    However, the previous lock-down did not tourism sector only, but all sectors in Barbados. The unemployment rate grew to 40%, which may even be much more, if you take unregistered businesses into consideration.

    A second lock-down would result in a further increase of the unemployment rate. So, ‘government’ is faced with the dilemma of protecting jobs and the lives of Barbadians at the same time.

    One ‘BU regular’ opined 40% unemployment would have resulted in rioting in some countries. He has been advocating for another lock-down, which would obviously increase the unemployment rate. I eagerly await his thoughts on the issue, if that occurs and the rate goes to 50%.

  42. TLSN Avatar
    TLSN

    @ Lawson,
    You have quoted that the vaccine costs 20 dollars. I presume you mean Canadian dollars.

    Under Barbados’ non-tranparent procurement methods the cost of that vaccine would be at least five-ten fold should we receive it. The covid-19 vaccine market place will be manna from heaven for the numerous crooks on the island.

    20 dollars! LOL!

  43. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    @TLSN
    @Angela

    The problem is once an idea has found root in some Bajans heads there is no moving it. There is a logic that to close the borders will starve people. No amount of arguments will move them from such folly. This is what they believe and they are sticking with it.
    It is not just a lives versus livelihoods argument, it is one about critical thinking. The option to close the border to ALL travellers is so obvious there is no real argument against it.
    Then there is the simplicity that to close the border to travellers for two weeks is to close it to goods and services; there is also the economic argument of reserves, but I will not digress.
    With the new variants (UK, South Africa and Brazil) now showing signs of greater infectivity and of greater resistance to the new vaccines, if ever there was a good time, now is it for closing the borders.
    In the light of not knowing government epidemiological modelling, it is very difficult to say what the thinking is behind government policy. But we can take guidance from other jurisdictions.
    We have had numerous changes of the guard: the resident, Bostic, Santia, Dr Walcott, Liz Thompson, the Czar, Drs Forde, George, Best and Cave; an number of strategists and PR people.
    What is the message they are trying to get across. One minute it is about clusters and community spread; next it is about hazard allowances; the next it is about quarantining and isolation. What is the message?
    The snide remarks about waiting to claim ‘I told you so’ are stupid suggestions which should be ignored. That someone who claims to have all his or her facilities could think Barbadians would like their friends, relatives, neighbours and fellow citizens should die just to prove a minor political point is so perverse and corrupt it is not worth even thinking of.
    But it is the thinking of some on BU.

  44. David Avatar
    David

    @Artax

    You are aware the new strains are in most if not all of our key tourists markets?

    https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2020/12/31/which-countries-have-reported-new-variants-of-covid-19

  45. Lawson Avatar
    Lawson

    TLSN canadian tourists in florida get them for free, I have read they go from 3 to 37 bucks now if you go with the chinese one its 6 bucks but an hour later you want another one. Yes I am using canadian $$$ but considering what I get for it on the island they seem near equal.lol The govt has to make a law jail time for profiteering.

  46. David Avatar
    David

    @Artax

    The upside to the surge in Barbados if there is one problem is that it has provided an opportunity to stress test Covid 19 systems to be better prepared for another surge and f/when it comes. We cannot hide from it. We can only manage to our best ability.

  47. Wily Coyote Avatar
    Wily Coyote

    The government has fired the COVID TOURISM bullet and like all fired weapons the projectile cannot be put back in the gun. Its unfortunate that this tourism philosophy was not well thought out and evaluated for consequences. We all know that NO BAJAN GOVERNMENT will admit this was a mistake and change course but conitiue down the same disastrous path.

  48. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    faculties……

  49. Pachamama Avatar
    Pachamama

    This is not an issue for simpletons. Sometimes there are no easy options. And when there is no obvious option the thinking maybe to do nothing, or maintain status quo.

    Certainly 500 years of globalization cannot be undone overnight. Nobody, no country, has found that an easy option.

    As a results open economies like Barbados arr forced to make life or death decisions more akin to countries with a history militarism. Countries accustomed to sending parts of the populations to their death, as a matter of course, survival.

    We see no easy answers beyond those previous presented by nations.

  50. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    As far as I’m aware there is no simple rapid test to determine if a particular Covid-19 case is derived from a mutant or not and where it came from directly or indirectly. Special expensive and very scarce equipment and expertise is necessary to characterise mutants as contrasted with say characterizing a virus as covid-19. Therefore it could be quite expensive to consistently monitor the mix of variants coming into and infecting persons in a small country.

    I think there is a distinct possibility that more than one mutant is already here aggressively building up its market share.

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