Submitted by Andrew Nehaul

Carlisle Bay and Bimshire.

These are the names of the two offshore blocks obtained by BHP Petroleum for oil exploration. These blocks are located between 40 km to 140 km Southeast of Barbados collectively encompass an area of 5,000 km2 in area and sitting in water depths ranging from 1,200 meters to 2,000 meters.

These depths are deep but with today’s technology, not impossible for the extraction of oil and gas. With the recent finds off Guyana, a greater possibility exists for Barbados to soon become a member of this exclusive club.

There is no guarantee that oil will be found during BHP’s exploration but if it is, now is the best time to prepare for that possibility. If their work bears fruit, there will be an influx of other players rushing to our shores and so the Government must be knowledgeable and well prepared to negotiate with all interested parties.

Before we all jump up and down in glee and hope that Barbadians will all now be rich, increased revenue for the treasury does not mean gas at 5 cents a litre and money for all. On the contrary, any funds received should be spent wisely. Preferably on improving the islands infrastructure, health and welfare along with the creation of a wealth fund for future generations.

So, if oil is in our future, what happens next?

1) We need to be ready to create a Barbados Oil Ministry with qualified lawyers, engineers, visionaries and consultants who could advise the current and future methods of negotiating any and all gas and petroleum contracts. We must learn from what happened in Angola.

2) Investment possibilities for local Barbadians. 40 km offshore will mean from helicopter services to boats taking food and supplies on a 24 hour basis, to increased private air traffic at the airport, increased cargo handling at the port along with more tugs and pilots etc Let us not also forget that institutions like the Barbados Community College may need to be expanded as they will need to provide technical training in industrial welding both above ground as well as undersea, commercial electricians, and pipe fitting.

3) The creation of a wealth fund staffed with the best investment bankers with specific safe (conservative) long term investment strategies.

4) The creation of a new port on the east of the island to exclusively service the oil and gas industry. This should include a state of the art centre for an expanded coast guard and a new quick response long range marine fire fighting service.

5) Improvements to the Queen Elizabeth Hospital to include a helicopter pad for emergencies and an expanded surgical section to include but not limited to a specialized burn unit.

6) The training of Barbadians in the oil industry from non skilled workers to providing scholarships for persons interested in the oil and gas industry.

Careers in Oil and Gas There are countless jobs within the industry, each of them requiring different levels of skill and education. The most advanced jobs require degrees while the entry- and mid-level jobs require more basic training and education. Today there are over 1.700 Guyanese citizens working in their oil industry and we can expect that 20 – 30% of the working population in Barbados will find jobs in this industry when production commences.

The Government would be wise to have an exploratory committee formed and ready. To many the above scenario may sound like a dream but I can assure you that when the first discovery is announced by BHP or others, it will be one day too late to start planning.

178 responses to “Oil – a dream or reality?”


  1. That woman ALWAYS coming wid de same shyte that don’t got nothing at all to do with the topic.

  2. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ tron at 9 :36 AM

    What “ignoranciness” are you getting on with so early in the day? Do you think St. John is the dumping ground? We are not the Lost Parish. We have the potential to feed you and quench your thirst, or not. Tread carefully with your tragi -comedy.
    Lol!!! Wuh Loss!!!
    Yes! Barbados has to make a decision as to whether it is greening or adding to global warming. It cannot pursue both strategies.


  3. David

    As a country, you think we will ever be able to develop extensive plans for worse case scenarios, redundancy. Is this too much to ask for, envision.

    Should we not have cadres of people thinking about things that may never happen but if they do we would not be caught pants down

    How come some could have seen the start of trouble coming and others did not. Is this not what the highly paid consultants arr to do. And having not had the foreknowledge should these people not be fired.


  4. Persaud insisted he was unable to give details of the plan at this stage, but said it was very much focused on reengaging workers and creating “new green investment plans that will transform our sector and move it towards a fully renewable and conserving sector”.


  5. @Pacha

    Yes we should be engaged in contingency redundancy planning whatever you want to call it. Such planning is considered routine not to be confused with strategic planning.

  6. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David Bu
    Reallocation of labour ,management, and financial resources is part of a comprehensive Strategic Plan at the micro (corporation) and the macro (national) levels. There should not be confusion. That is the source of our problem over the last twenty years. This piece meal planning has to stop. Everything is interrelated. Decisions impact each other. An economy is a complex system.


  7. @Vincent

    One must plan efficiently or accept the result.

    We seen the fallout from this basic in the lack of maintenance of public buildings and equipment.


  8. @David

    PLANNING is generally a good idea, however wishful thinking Planning is a waste of time and resources. How about we start planning for the party when Barbados wins several events at the next Olympics, WISHFUL THINKING, HOWEVVER IT MAY KEEP HUNDREDS OF CIVIL SERVANTS Ungainfully employed.


  9. David
    Ok. But every year we have a degree of trepidation, every hurricane season, and we can see them coming.

    For we have no capacity to rebuild 20K houses should there be a direct cat5. Farless the not so obvious dangers, like this Covid on top of a recession


  10. Poor comparison.
    A party can be thrown together in a few minutes with not much economic activity.
    A major oil/gas find can change the economy for years. with a positive impact.

    Why do we plan/prepare for huricanes ? because they would have significant negative economic impact if they hit.


  11. Not crossing wunna but….

    Bought by a HNW resident of Barbados.

    https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/09/04/icbl-sold-to-local-finance-form/


  12. Heard Donville got ten years.


  13. Suppose we found oil and there was a major spill. Could our government ever handle such. Or will we do the expected, beg for help. All these conditions must be planned for.

  14. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ Hants at 11:55AM
    Thanks for underlining the fact that it is a Barbados registered company that bought the majority share holdings . Are the shareholders Barbadians? Not that it will make much of a difference. But Mr. Poulin has made a commitment.


  15. Look I seen Persaud tap dancing and sweet mout at work in the debt restructuring. Up to now i have not been told the net savings after W0 expenses and debt reissueance of the debt, taking into account extended maturity dates and interest cost, so he short in height and facts in my book.

    Now as for this latest escapade as Hal calls it, this sound like de 3 card men in Swan Street. You taking USD reserves to pay unemployment benefits cause the dam NIS Fund brek as ass and the IMF wouldnt let wunna top it up. After all you want to come and brag how wunna past the IMF 11 plus so wunna got to pay the piper now.

    If you was taking $100M of we reserves and pumping it into agriculture and alternative energy to save us FX that is one thing, but to use it to pay NIS liabilities is madness!

  16. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ daxid at 11: 30 AM

    That is not for lack of planning . That is managerial incompetence and failure to budget appropriately. The system of budgeting needs revising. Maintenance is a routine management responsibility. Strategic planning although related is medium to long run in nature.


  17. @ John A

    Hidden unemployment. All smoke and mirrors. Bovine excrement.


  18. @Vincent

    If the current state is one of neglect of infrastructure for years then some planning will have to be executed to rectify. If we were efficient in maintaining the infrastructure all along then one could focus on mismanagement.

  19. Vincent Codrington Avatar
    Vincent Codrington

    @ David BU
    I fear that we are into semantics again. Let us not pursue this line any longer
    . If one has infrastructure in place one manages it continuously and budget for its maintenance every year. It is part of operations spending .
    If one is expanding or building new infrastructure, one plans for it. It is new capital investment.


  20. Where is the semantics Vincent? We agree it is a management issue, however, it was not being managed for years it means some planning will be required now to fix it.


  21. @ Nehaul

    I pray that we ydo find substantial oil reserves. However, BGOV needs to use your Guyanese 🇬🇾 brothers negotiated substandard deals with Exxon-Mobile on (Liza 1, 2 & 3) as examples.

    Guyana economy should be explosive today. That’s not the case. Oil is being sent to Texas from the Lisas in super tankers for refining. No berbice refinery built by Exxon-Mobile to hire thousands of Guyanese workers as previously negotiated. GuyEnergy building a refinery funded by Brazilian Investors, as per Dr. Turhane Doerga.

    Exxon Mobil Corp.’s oil-production contract with Guyana is so heavily weighted in the supermajor’s favor that it will deprive the tiny South American country of some $55 billion over the life of the agreement, according to human-rights group Global Witness.

    Guyana had a strong bargaining position when the contract came up for renegotiation in 2016 because Exxon had just made a giant offshore oil discovery, but “inexperienced” bureaucrats failed to press for substantially better fiscal terms, Global Witness said in a report titled “Signed Away” on Monday.

    Government officials were more concerned with a maritime border dispute with Venezuela than negotiating better terms, the group said. Natural Resources Minister Raphael Trotman signed an “exceptionally bad” deal compared with other frontier oil nations, Global Witness said, citing a fiscal analysis by OpenOil, a Berlin-based public-policy researcher.

    “We have complied with applicable laws at each step of the exploration, appraisal and development stages, anything to the contrary is baseless and without merit,” Exxon said in an email.

    Trotman declined to comment beyond previous statements in which he said it was in Guyana’s best interests to gain “security in what it had” rather than engage in a protracted renegotiation.

    The report is likely to re-ignite debate over which political party is best suited to manage the country’s new-found oil wealth just weeks before national elections. The winner of the March 2 vote will lead a country that by the mid-2020s probably will produce more crude per citizen than any other nation in the world.

    READ: The World’s Newest Petrostate Isn’t Ready for a Tsunami of Cash

    Even for a company the size of Exxon, Guyana is becoming a critical project. Under pressure from investors upset by its poor, long-term stock performance, Chief Executive Officer Darren Woods last week championed the project’s high returns as an example of the fruits of his $35 billion-a-year spending plan.

    Much of those returns depend on Exxon’s contract with Guyana, which Global Witness says should be renegotiated. Both political parties running in the election Guyana have pledged to uphold all contracts.

    Risk Profiles

    Exxon said Global Witness’s conclusions are “misleading.” The group compared Guyana to mature oil-producing countries that have lower risk profiles and failed to acknowledge that the “material economic terms were agreed to in 1999 and remained in effect in 2016,” the Irving, Texas-based company said.

    OpenOil’s analysis makes “sweeping assumptions” about the economics of future developments that still require appraisal drilling, Exxon said. For its part, OpenOil says Exxon’s Guyana block “yields relatively low government take by almost any standard.”

    Trotman “failed to represent his country effectively during negotiations, declining to listen to expert advice and under-valuing Guyana’s apparently strong bargaining position,” Global Witness said.

    Law firm Clyde & Co. has reviewed Trotman’s and the government’s decision making, the minister said by email, without disclosing what conclusions were reached. He said he will seek to have the report made public.

    It’s difficult for some to negotiate the people’s fortunes candidly, when suitcases of hard cash are provoking.

    @ P “ this writer tends to see the future”

    sensory perception ???

    If we find any substantial oil reserves off BDS, it will probably be the coast of St. Joseph, St. John or St. Phillip. The waters resembles the North Sea. Pure speculation on my part.

    Our previous oil explorations were conducted by Sunoco, to no avail.

    @David

    “COVID is a game changer” No kidding…

    I wish BDS good fortune in this endeavor.


  22. @Hal

    I dont have a problem with the sweet talk but it will only get us so far. If you remember in a chat we were having a few weeks back i said i dont think this government or private sector understand the debt of the post covid economy and this move is living proof.

    Is the plan now to pay unemployment benefits to the hotel sector indefinitely or till a workable vacine is found and tourist return? Instead of investing in 2 guaranteed sectors of the economy that can save vast amounts of Fx dat is wunna plan?

    Suppose covid 19 morphs into a covid 20 and the home market economies go into recession for the next 2 years, wunna going deplete we reserves paying unemployment benefits till then? So wait this is the best the Brainiac Sinkyuh and all dem committtees could come up with? Madam Boss Lady fire all them and go and talk to Mr Agriculture pun Brasstacks please! I tell you i now realise how deep in doo doo we is if this is all wunna can cone up with.


  23. “That woman ALWAYS coming wid de same shyte that don’t got nothing at all to do with the topic”

    oh it has EVERYTHING to do with the topic…house negros and fowl slaves being controlled by minorities who HATE THEIR GUTS and they can DO NOTHING ABOUT IT….how bout that….🤣😂😂😂😂

    they will soon get all of you “house negros” out of that parliament…ah can’t wait for that MAIN event…getting cameras ready and everything…


  24. Wait…so what is all that drama playing out in the city, I saw police have some dudes standing against a wall with their hands up and someone said it’s Haloute they picked up, I saw the photos but can’t tell who is who;.wuhloss….


  25. why can to two be done together? investing in the two industries and baling/ assisting the workers which will also assist the economy.. we have 2.5 years of imports and probably have experienced the worst part of covid,, gov and its advisors would have the figures and be aware of what we can/not afford..

    Keeping as many workers as possible will keep money in circulation(VC) and more revenue for gov.


  26. Hal…Donville is being sentenced in November 23rd…

    for those who saw the photos of police picking up some dude, it has been confirmed it’s not Haloute but a Nadur…


  27. Waru

    Why dont you tell us all de people it aint. Lol

    Maybe our friend Gillo may come into play.


  28. house negros and fowl slaves being controlled by minorities who HATE THEIR GUTS and they can DO NOTHING ABOUT IT {Quote}

    Sorry, but I ain’t know it was so difficult fuh you to get a divorce. All I could tell yuh to do is grin and bear it.


  29. @ WURA-War-on-U/Nehaul

    I noticed some beach areas of St. Joseph and St. John are grey in color and has no life, crabs, cockles, sea birds or sea urchins washed up. These beach areas resembles most of St. Kitts and St. Lucia (dead) beaches. A couple of contributing factors would be volcanic or Oil-Sands. The sands in these areas need to be tested. Can you get a couple of your
    geological technology buddies from UWI to run the test???. . You probably would be flabbergasted, If oil-sand is responsible, it’s probably seeping up from 1 or 2 miles below and we are in luck. If it’s volcanic sand ????? you have de answers Professors.


  30. @TonySeptember 4, 2020 1:44 PM

    How much a country receives depends on its risk profile. In view of the electoral tragedy from March to July and the high crime rate, the Guyanese should be glad that they are getting any fees at all.

    As far as Barbados is concerned, exploitation is not worthwhile at present because the oil is too deep in the sea. So we remain a banana republic with tourism as the new sugar cane plantation, where the black masses slave until they drop dead (not my wish but reality …).


  31. Barbados needs all ideas at this stage but this is laid out more from a fantasy perspective than an actionable roadmap

    Too much to unpack here to be useful


  32. “Why dont you tell us all de people it aint. Lol”

    lol..


  33. @ Tron/bageabroad

    With regards to the recent Guyanese Electoral process March – July. It was hijacked. No due process. We in BDS has to explore all resources available. We can’t afford to overlook an opportunity. We are In distress mode.

    Crime was down in Forbes Burnham era. De choke n rob was blown out of proportion.


  34. What I do not understand is tourism without tourists
    ###########
    Not only you, Donna.


  35. @Tee White

    It is easy to be critical, what are the options with 5,000 hotel workers out of work?


  36. Isnt Barbados opened and getting a sprinkle/drop drop of tourist already?


  37. Pacha…even better we are hearing about a car full of drugs in the port….so we wait to hear the varying amounts and varying description of drugs a la Goddards/Herbert drug boat….lol

    maybe PLT can tell us who is guilty and who is not..


  38. @David

    “It is easy to be critical, what are the options with 5,000 hotel workers out of work?”

    Yes its easy to be critical, however Wily’s told you the answer several times, DEVALUATION, the fallout will eventually reach an equilibrium and the populace will be at a LESS Effluent Place however at economic stability.


  39. Oil: a dream, reality or a curse?

    In no more than 500 words. Discuss.


  40. oil : is not a reality so it cannot be a curse. so from the answers provided it will have to be a dream.

    Whats my prize?


  41. is not yet


  42. @ Bajeabroad
    De number of green monkeys on de island surpasses our 280.000 bajan population. Do we have a temporary marketable commodity. An EU/North American pet/meat market potential @ $25.000 a pop ?????


  43. @Tony

    We need to understand our markets. It’s not about what Barbados wants it’s about what the world wants and is willing to buy from Barbados. We can aspire all we want but if the market does not exist then it’s meaningless and irrelevant.

    Take your green monkey example and the markets you outlined. There is absolutely no way we can market monkey meat to North Americans and Europeans who are hard core animal and pet lovers sometimes more than lovers of humanity and would scoff at the idea of killing monkeys for meat. Would not fly and you can be guaranteed Barbados would be the subject of blacklisting, animal injustice documentaries etc. Look at how easily we are labeled a tax haven. So we can have 250,000 or 2 million monkeys. A meat market approach is not marketable to that market.

    China? Yes maybe but even then the negative press will impact our world image

    The new economy is the gig economy anyone can learn digital economy skills online cheaply and offer their skills internationally right from Barbados. It’s time the average young Bajan focuses there and forget broad based government dependency. The heads and consultants are clueless


  44. Devaluation offers no solution to Barbados economic issues. You will just create aspiral, if the underlying fundamentals are not addressed.

    The country has to consume less, import much less and produce more.

    While devaluation may, on superficial views, seem an easy way to get there, it will not achieve that really. It will just send up the foreign debt levels. Because the imports will continue, especially as most of the industries rely on imports as inputs.

    We crossed this a long while ago on these forums and explained why Around ten years ago we addressed the issue of forex imbalances and the need for more local production. It can be done, but the political will and the cultural will of the population needs to be there an to change.

    Devaluation will also result in both price and wage inflation. IF as is claimed, there are heavy funds in local savings, then right there is one reason that devaluation will cause an inflationary rise.

    You cannot just look at one simple equation and come to a conclusion.

    The best solution is to dollarise. Remove the Central Bank costs and false perception of control. Remove the urge to print money and instead earn money.

    If you are intending to do something as reckless as devaluation, then simply dollarise.

    When dollarising, look at how the cashflows from business earnings, including hotels, move. Does the country receive all of the room revenue etc from hotel, including all inclusive bookings?

    That is very easy to audit. Room occupancy x average room rate = $X. How much funds are banked locally? $Y.

    $X-$Y= $Z = funds banked elsewhere, when the tourist makes the initial booking.

    For the difference $Z, put an additional levy on that for revenue tax lost. Say, 15%, the VAT rate or thereabout.

    VAT is collected to cover country admin and utility costs. If VAT is lost on room revenue by overseas bookings, then you have to collect is otherwise.

    These are issues that have not been addressed, the rela reasons that Barbados has a forex issue. Yet people rush to hammer on about devaluation.

    How about the high cost of goods in the stores. How are these purchased? Any moron looking at these prices understands that a polo shirt or a can of corned beef, cannot cost four times that it would cost in Miami, without substantial margin additions.

    Yet people rush to blame 17.5% VAT. That is so stupid as to be funny. The real issue is the purchase cycle and where the profits are taken.

    Ask that question.

    This is only a bit of it, but these have not been mentioned even once above, yet people are hammering on about devaluation.

    Totally illogical. You have to consider the business flows, the impact on inflation, how a country derives its revenue.

    I expect a few people are smarting at what I noted above. Well, we know the truth, don’t we sunshines?


  45. @ Bajeabroad
    You took direct issue with de (meat) and ignored de pet companion idea 😂😂😂😂😂👍


  46. @ Crusoe

    I am not a devaluationist, but the argument against must be based on sound real economics and not politics. Already we have had one person saying that devaluation would affect low-paid people more, especially those working in tourism.
    I am not sure where this fantasy came from. But I am aware there is a discipline called economics, which people all over the world adhere to, and something called Cave Hill economics, which is uniquely Barbadian.
    It looks to me as if you are contradicting yourself by saying the country has to consume less. Are you suggesting this can be done voluntarily? Wouldn’t devaluation make imports more expensive, a tool in controlling consumption of imported goods?
    We used to hear nonsense about foreign reserves until Dr Professor Avinash Persaud, the top economist and adviser to the honourable prime minister, told us that he is considering using some of the reserves to prop up badly managed, family-owned hotels. What a brilliant idea? He should win a Nobel Prize.


  47. @Hal,

    The problem is that devaluing will not result in less imports. It will however cause a worse forex position because imports will not be reduced substantially, so same foreign currency purchase at a worse rate. Three things will fuel continued imports. The dependence on imported inputs for hotels and construction (and others), the savings will also be used to fund the consumption, in addition to wage inflation and the dark economy flows.

    What I have posted is real economics, these are the funds flows. That is where it starts. Theory can only work when connected to actual operating flows.

    On the forex support of the hospitality sector, that is total madness. But whatever. They have their experts who know everything, apparently.

    As I noted above, the holes in the economic flows need to be plugged. The amount of revenue lost there is a main issue.


  48. @ Crusoe

    When you are talking to me forget the notion of foreign reserves. It is bogus. Are you telling me if imports are more expensive that people will still buy them? Then they deserve what they get.
    What are the imports that the hotel industry needs? And construction, apart from steel? I am not sure about the ‘others’. Why wage inflation? Why in an economy with 40-50 per cent unemployment should there be wage increases? Ar you disputing the Phillips Curve?
    Funds flow when there is a return on investments. Barbados is not a good environment for foreign direct investments. We defaulted on our debt just over two years ago and since then we have been in a mess.
    As I said, I am not a supporter of devaluation, but the arguments against must be based on good economics, not Bajan economic logic.


  49. Pacha…it’s coming apart, after years of accusations of the water supply being poisoned by the dirty no good minorities who love to rob the people and country and are allowed to by the equally no good scum in the parliament, after we have known for a FACT for decades that they ALL WASH THE ISLAND IN DRUGS and GUNS a la the now accused Nadur/Haloute minority families infesting and infecting every Black community in their goal to destroy Black people…….ask freedom LIAR …..filling up the prison with young people because ALL THE OPPORTUNITIES ARE STOLEN by the same no good fellow scum and they then have no way turn…..why is anyone surprised that allegedly a CONTAINER of DRUGS was discovered in the port.

    That is why I took a turn in VIncent because they all know what happened on the island from the 1970s when this criminal syndicate arrived on the island but still seek to BLAME THE PEOPLE while absolving all the minority scum and parliament scum who allow them to destroy the island and Black population…in exchange for their bribe money.

    let’s hear the lies and coverup now…


  50. @ Crusoe September 5, 2020 1:11 AM

    Agree mostly with what you say, however your arguement FAILS on how to bring about these changes. DEVALUATION will force the issue, the populace and government will react and a new normal economic situation will develope, granted this new reality will not be pretty, ie standard of living will fall significantly.
    Barbados can not keep following the present economic route or a HAITI type country will be enevatable. The TALK AND INACTION has to STOP.

    Don’t interpret my suggestion of DEVALUATION as support for thus action, however based on Barbados past economics and management over the last 15 or so years it’s likely the only alternative.

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