The Central Bank of Barbados economic review of the economy was delivered today by Governor Cleviston Haynes.
Central Bank Economic Review- Double Digit Decline Expected
The Central Bank of Barbados economic review of the economy was delivered today by Governor Cleviston Haynes.
333 responses to “Central Bank Economic Review- Double Digit Decline Expected”
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Are we able to list our export producing businesses to establish if there is an opportunity to supply some of the inputs/raw materials in Barbados? It is a model used by Singapore.
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The plan is very simple. Let’s put aside the Caribbean schmooziness and tendency to euphemism.
We need to dismantle the welfare state and the bureaucracy so that people finally take the initiative to become entrepreneurs rather than sleep at the expense of others. When people have to start thinking for themselves again, the diversification of industry will come about all by itself. The categorical error in thinking on BU is that the state has to do the diversification. This is the old thinking of the 18th century when the state dictated to serfs all.
We need a reduction in labour costs, whether through wage cuts or currency devaluation, because we are far too expensive in price compared with the rest of the Caribbean (with exception of the Bahamas). The best thing would be to reduce the wage level by 25 years to the 1995 level. In return, the government should reduce customs duties and other taxes to make construction and consumption affordable again.
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@Dullard How does the government keep people fed that will be displaced for god knows how long? Is there a script you are following we can see?
You want specifics from the Dullard? No, no, no. That usually comes with an invoice. LOL
But why question a simple dullard? Why not request specifics from any one of the army of ministers/ advisors/ consultants/ tzars?
Your heart must be aching to see the Covid19 crisis going to waste. The same tired approaches are being rehashed.
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@Dullard
There is no exclusivity on ideas. Some of us attended school/universities with the ministers.
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Are we able to list our export producing businesses to establish if there is an opportunity to supply some of the inputs/raw materials in Barbados? It is a model used by Singapore…(Quote)
Plse explain this in simple terms; or, even better, plse give some examples.
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@ David May 1, 2020 1:53 PM
You cannot compare Barbados to Singapore.
Singapore is located directly at one of the world’s most important shipping routes, the government fights corruption with draconian penalties, they correct people and the Asian mentality sanctifies the value of work.
In Barbados, we are at the end of the world, corruption is socially accepted and never prosecuted and people can’t even spell the word work ethic.
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@Tron
The point is that we have to be inspired by others as to the importance of being creative.
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The point is that we have to be inspired by others as to the importance of being creative.(Quote)
Plse explain.
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You should recognize the reality of foreign investment in Barbados. Imagine the position of such an investor: Would you invest industrially in a country where machines rust within three years because of the climate, electricity is very expensive, hurricanes are imminent, Senator Caswell and other trade unionists are constantly moaning about workers’ rights and wages are far too high in relation to productivity?
Those who are smart are investing in Africa today. The population there is young and willing to work and wages are low. In 30 years, Africa will be what China is today, namely the workbench of the world.
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Do you underwear have a crisis we cannot allow to go to waste and therefore referencing fowlups of the past is unhelpful to the discussion.
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@ Blogmaster
There is no exclusivity on ideas. Some of us attended school/universities with the ministers.Not me. I went to sidewalk university. I’m just good at using Google and spotting bovine manure.
But you didn’t answer the question. Why don’t you request specifics – with the same zeal – of those who are ostensibly in a position to do something with their ideas. Viz the army of ministers/ consultants/ advisors/ tzars ?
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Isn’t that what we do here, every day? Many (All) hands make light work.
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Thank you very much, dear Hal.
Thus, Singapore has partly suspended the property tax. We should follow this example and suspend the property tax for commercial properties, in addition for the villas of foreigners. At the moment they cannot use their villas at all. Therefore it is only fair and reasonable to continue taxing the indigenous people, but not the foreigners.
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114 comments later? 🤔
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Don’t even begin to compare Barbados to Signapore I beg you! Their systems work. Their laws are enforced and they do not give away $500M in VAT receipts because they can’t collect it.
You also have a government their that doesn’t worry about winning a seat first and policy later. It is one of the most unworthy comparisons to make, as all It does is shows how poor we are at the very basics of governance.
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What the MOF needs to do if she wants our buy in is this.
Publish the agenda that will be given to the committee for their action.
List the goals you wish met by the committee. For example a reduction of government expenses of $100M by March 2021
An increase in agricultural output of 30% over the next eleven months.
An alternative energy plan that can be implemented in 2 stages. Stage one expires on March 2021. Stage 2 expires by March 2022 with a fuel import saving of 40% ( this can be private public sector based as well)
In other words don’t say you appointing the Comittee and done there. The committees needs to be given Cleary outlined targets that the public knows of and can judge the success of themselves.
I passed up Shop Hill this week and saw Bizzy in a matter of weeks, building a sizable solar farm. We don’t want no lot of talk from this committee, we want clearly outlined targets that are known to every tax payer. Let us be the judge of how much the committee produces as opposed to being told something like ” on agriculture the committee met 68.42% of their goal over the proposed period.”
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@Tron
Your suttle sarcasm is starting to win “some thinking” converts, time to dump this socialistic philosophy and return to ethics reality. The two main enforced avenues to this goal is immediate 60% reduction in the civil service and SOE’s and DEVALUATION.
Our BU leader likes to compare Barbados to Singapore, obviously he cannot tell apples from oranges, no doubt the result of his schooling with many of the present government ministers.
It’s time for this Caribben style RACIAL socialism to be banned/outlawed.
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Barbados needs ” aid ” not loans.Beg friends of all fuh help.
Diasporeans could send more CASH and barrels.
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After all, we are world-class at covering up corruption and inventing excuses.
When Donville comes back to Barbados, he’ll be instantly rehabilitated. Ninety-five percent of the population is quietly in favor of corruption and mismanagement. Otherwise, we would never have gotten into this precarious situation. It is dishonest to blame the government. The voters, that is the local masses, have wanted this policy since 1966. Otherwise they would not always vote for the same parties, escp. the DLP from 2008 to 2018.
#blame-the-people-not-the-gov
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@PLT
your “cruise ship” analogy was very good and accurate. -
TronMay 1, 2020 3:10 PM
Thank you very much, dear Hal.
Thus, Singapore has partly suspended the property tax. We should follow this example and suspend the property tax for commercial properties, in addition for the villas of foreigners. At the moment they cannot use their villas at all. Therefore it is only fair and reasonable to continue taxing the indigenous people, but not the foreigners.
You are a Boss. I en know bout Hal but you nearly kill me.
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Northern,
We need on BU not only voices representing the impoverished, naive masses in their socialist faith or the insatiable government. We also need to think of the top performers, entrepreneurs, land barons, diplomats, expats and foreign investors. I am trying to give a voice to this species threatened with extinction in socialist Barbados.
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@ John A May 1, 2020 3:55 PM
“An increase in agricultural output of 30% over the next eleven months.
An alternative energy plan that can be implemented in 2 stages. Stage one expires on March 2021. Stage 2 expires by March 2022 with a fuel import saving of 40% ( this can be private public sector based as well)”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++The miller really does admire your workable and indeed achievable proposals to ‘manage’ the current crisis and for laying down the markers to chart the future economic development of ‘Bubadus’, as(Sir) Courtney Blackman would refer to Bim.
But there is one downside you need to take into consideration when it comes to your alternative energy (AE) plan.
Your plan would require a sea change of a move away from the national grid by some existing ‘large’ BL&P like the BWA.
Wouldn’t such an event call into serious questioning the future of Emera’s ‘large fixed cost’ investment in the generating facility down Spring Garden needed to justify its continuation with its integrated downstream transmission business model?
In other words your large-scale move to AE can only materialize, given the existing arrangements, if the profit numbers are in favour of Emera by way of a significant controlling share of the AE generation market.
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@ The Sage Annunaki
De ole man noted that you remarked on former Prime Minister’s inclusion in the cadre of persons to find 20,000 jobs
The comment that you spoke to was an excerpt from the Jobs and Investment Council description which states and de ole man quotes
“…“Former Prime Minister, Professor Owen Arthur, chairs the Industrial Transformation group of the Jobs and Investment Council, which is looking at ‘How to create 20,000 jobs in 18 to 24 months…”
De ole man would ask you Wise Sage this question
Puff Daddy ruled Barbados for 15 years IN TIMES OF PLENTY and how many jobs did he create then?
What will be his sell by date contribution in these times of Covid famine?
‘,,,As a dog returns to its vomit, so a fool repeats his foolishness….” Proverbs 26:11
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Emera stock
$54.11 CAD −1.30 (2.35%)
May 1, 4:00 p.m. EDT -
@ Mr Hal Austin
Hal you said and de ole man quotes
“… Hal Austin May 1, 2020 6:44 AM
@ Piece
1.Is the pandemic bonds the same as a government bond or will it be differently structured?
DE OLE MAN DOUBTS THAT THERE ARE ANY DIFFERENCES, if the defaulted in times of plenty then, in these COVID times they will do the same
In fact if you heard the begging done on the CNN INTERVIEW you can clearly see what is in store for the nation. One does not have to be a prophet to see that
2.What will the money be used for?
As best as de ole man is reading it, IT WILL BE USED TO PAY THE SALARIES OF THE #) MINISTERS THAT MUGABE HAS SURROUNDING HER
3.Plse tell me if you know, who are the members of the CoVid economic council, apart from Owen Arthur and Chris Sinckler?
ONE DOES NOT NEED TO KNOW WHO THE OTHER MEMBERS OF THE COVID ECONOMIC COUNCIL ARE. THEY HAVE RETURNED TO THE VOMIT and that alone is enough to signal to the international advisors that they are out of viable ideas. And it is the international community that Barbados has to impress not the strategy of Mugabe to DESTROY THE RECONSTITUTION EFFORTS OF THE DLP or to thwaart Owen Arthur assisting the People’s Development Party
4.And, is the president back at work full-time?
HAS IT BEEN YOUR EXPERIENCE Hal to see Mugabe take a back seat in anything that is going on in the country? She IS MUGABE & SHE IS GOING TO BE IN EVERYTHING even if she in she bed recovering from she surgery
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@Miller
Not at all, we can give Emera the same incentives to expand their solar farm in St Lucy and elsewhere. So Emera can still maintain their return, but the only difference would be the source of the energy must move gradually to solar as opposed to fuel based. As I said ALL are welcome to the solar age regardless of corporate or personal standing.
The goal is to reduce the fuel import bill and FX demand for it island wide.
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Minister of Tourism overly optimistic ?
” But Symmonds’ estimate of an eight-month revival timeline runs counter to experts’ predictions of a tourism destination’s average recovery time from pandemics.
According to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the COVID-19 crisis is also expected to have a longer-lasting effect on global tourism than on other economic sectors. In previous pandemics, the average recovery time for visitors to a destination was about 19 months.”
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Symmonds, sadly, is delusional. As Hants points out, “the average recovery time for visitors to a destination was about 19 months” but this is not an average pandemic. The pandemics that Unctad used to estimate that tourism recovery time caused economic shut down or widespread death tolls. COVID-19 economic damage cannot be compared to the economic damage caused by swine flu or bird flu. 19 month recovery time from COVID-19 for our tourist industry is itself a radical underestimate.
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^ None of the pandemics UNCTAD used to estimate that tourism recovery time^
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@ Hants at 6:26 PM
At this point in time, we are all guessing. Each pandemic’s effect on the Economy varies according to the source of the tourists and the extent of the damage to the host’s destination. So Mr Symmonds time frame and UNCTAD’s have the same level of probability. In any case what is UNCTAD’s projection based on?
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Didnt the goverment Have a switching over to green energy plan in it manifesto ?
Air travel is picking up at Atlanta airport
It is still way down but it’s a little better than last weekThings may not go as good as kerrie would like but I don’t think it will be as bad as some of the BU family is thinking either
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@ Vincent and Peter,
Here is the article from which I gleaned my comments.
https://barbadostoday.bb/2020/05/01/symmonds-tourism-will-bounce-back-by-yearend/
I am a bit more pessimistic than most. I think a lot of countries will open before a treatment or vaccine is found and accept covid 19 related deaths as “a consequence of war “.That is my laymans opionion.
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So if 50,000 people work in the tourism sector, I see a lot of upward potential for more unemployed, namely 50,000 + the stock before March 2020. Perhaps we will end up with 70,000 unemployed.
I think the government has to do more to win back the foreigners as tourists. Well, our minister wants to “care”. I have here a plan how he can take care of the most important group in Barbados, namely the foreigners who have their villas in Barbados:
covering the cost of air travel, business class.
1000 USD welcome money or alternatively a voucher of the same amount for Cliff or Sandy Lane
abolition of property tax
takeover of the wages for the pool attendant, gardener, housekeeper and maid
exemption from VAT on electricity and Internet
exemption from all taxes and customs duties when purchasing a carI’m sick of all this **** about the “most vulnerable in society.” The government should finally also think of those who feed 99 percent of the natives all year round.
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@ Wily E Coyote,
Your are another smart observer here on BU who calls a spade a spade and cannot be moved from your wisdom BY IDIOCY nor the IDIOTIC,
You said and de ole man quotes “…All Wily can see is that Barbados present “POOR” financial position has now moved into DEEP BANKRUPTCY TERRITORY and can no longer meet it’s daily operational funding requirements, ie NIS, employment insurance welfare etc.
Prime Minister is now floundering and suggesting things such as a PANDEMIC BONDS which are totally unrealistic, who’s going to purchase any type of bond being promoted by a Sovereign FAILURE government…!”
It is people like you, Dullard, the Sage Annunaki, and Mr. Hal Austin who hold no punches when remarking on the asinine strategies being promoted by the Mugabe regime.
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@ John A
@ Hal
What baffles me is that you both have allowed yourselves to be distracted by the inclusion of Sinkler into Mottley’s committee. This is not about Sinkler. The question here is whether the stimulus can radically jump start the economy as we enter .post CONVID. The simple truth is that the stimulus as outlined ,is economic planning as usual. In other words there is not one innovative or creative idea.
Obviously it is business as usual ; back to cosmetology hoping that tourists will flood GAIA and the port within a matter of months. That in itself is an absurdity. Tourism to all intents and purposes. as we know it , is dead! Should the airlines have to operate as presented: third seats out; masks; increase cost in sanitary maintenance etc, the cost of airfare would rise. Imagine tickets costing more and less passengers. Higher fares less passengers and we in sharks guts. Furthermore , do we really think that people going to quickly return to cruises, after the recent deaths on tourist liners and do on.
Why can’t we wake up and realize that the entire world economy has changed and that old outdated trips into pseudo academic/ intellectual wasteland has been permanently rendered painfully useless by CONVID. The economy that Sinkler mismanaged is no more. The economy that Mottley inherited is no more. -
Air Canada anticipates return of worldwide air travel by Christmas
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/air-canada-predicts-flying-again-christmas-worldwide-1.5551402
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@ Mr William Skinner
you said and de ole man quotes
“…The simple truth is that the stimulus as outlined, is economic planning as usual.
In other words there is not one innovative or creative idea.
Obviously it is business as usual; back to cosmetology hoping that tourists will flood GAIA and the port within a matter of months.
That in itself is an absurdity. Tourism to all intents and purposes. as we know it, IS DEAD!…”
There is an important thing that de ole man must explain here for you Mr. Skinner.
Creativity IS NOT Innovation.
for whereas you MUST HAVE Creativity to be Innovative one does not need innovation to to be creative!
The innovation that brought about the Ipad required its designers to be creative.
But the state required for creativity IS NOT CONNECTED to innovation at all
Which might bring one to the query of how could one nurture and then harness either or both of these items.
Kerrie Oblong head, phrenologically speaking, IS THE NEAREST THING TO A ZABALA-POO from a Darwinian perspective.
De ole man know dat many people is not know what phrenology is so I gine provide de meaning of the word
“…Phrenology, which focuses on personality and character, is distinct from craniometry, which is the study of skull size, weight and shape, and physiognomy, the study of facial features. Method. Phrenology is a process that involves observing and/or feeling the skull to determine an individual’s psychological attributes…”
True de ole man must saw that he did not mek heself but give some thought to his latent skills that he brought to Parliament and then match the requirements of the country’s current predicament to his competencies.
And what one arrives at is a deficit of $400 million
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@ William Skinner May 1, 2020 9:31 PM
You say tourism is dead. I don’t agree. Dead people can’t be resurrected, but tourism will come back. The global economy will go back to the way it was – under Chinese leadership. We haven’t had a war with massive devastation or a pandemic with a billion dead. What we have is a global government-forced lockdown, which is probably far too strong.
The Barbadian economy will recover from this global lockdown as well. The only question is WHEN. With vaccine next year, possibly to SOME extent in the winter season 2021/22, without vaccine only after global infestation much later, perhaps with first tourists towards the middle of the decade. In this worst-case scenario we will have at least 70,000, if not 100,000 unemployed.
In any case, we will not see a recovery to current levels before the middle of the decade. Remember also that our current performance (GDP) is already poor. We have no economic growth for 12 years, and the state and society refuse to make any reforms.
Contrary to what many here believe, the loss of tourism cannot be compensated at all. Jobs in agriculture mean very low wages. Besides, we do not need 50000 unemployed people from the tourism industry there. No country in the world that is heavily dependent on tourism will be able to compensate for the loss of income in the short and medium term.
So our government will stick to tourism. I consider all the other announcements about diversification to be a distraction for the unemployed masses, to lull them and prepare them for the elections in three years’ time. The government must set the narrative that it is not to blame for the crisis, that a natural disaster has come over the country. People will then express their confidence in the government because the alternative called DLP is even more cruel.
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@ de Honourable Blogmaster
You said and i quote
“… David May 1, 2020 12:32 PM
@John A
Could be the PM is giving Sinckler responsibility for trade matters given his academic training and position as former Executive Coordinator of the Caribbean Policy Development Centre (CDPC)? He is fit for purpose they say in his appointed role…?”
You mekking sport right? You ever ask anybody bout how Sinckler managed the Caribbean Policy Development Centre?
heheheheheheheh
It would appear like if Mugabe has forgotten about the incompetencies of the man WHY IS THAT???
But here is a reminder for you and Mugabe
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@ Tron
Quite frankly, I am not interested in returning any blame game . The people have spoken clearly on the period 2013-2018. The current administration has been given high marks by the people.
I have chosen not to return to engaging in those old debates.
My position remains: the CONVID has wiped out the economy. We can fool ourselves but the country we love cannot continue the model of development it has followed since 1966. -
Your help is required Honourable Blogmaster
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My take on all this is….the PM has said,,,THIS is what the GoB is willing to do….THIS is what is available and how it is going to be divided up….NOW the rest is up to each person to do as they see fit. You can lead, you can follow or you can do nothing. There is a choice.
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Correct me if I am wrong but as far as I am aware there has been no audited financial information on the state of affairs of the National Insurance Fund for a number of years and rather than address this pertinent issue we drift off into irrelevant intellectual discourses which serve no purpose to the average Barbadian.
Without reliable and audited information how can we actually say whatvthecyrue state of the NIS find is? -
@ Norethern
You are a Boss. I en know bout Hal but you nearly kill me.(Quote)
You are name checking me again. I am not sure why. Still waiting for your answers to my ‘continued belittling’ of Barbados. Is this another of my misdeeds?
Or you are looking for cheap laughs again. Where I come from we call this bullying. You go on. -
@ William
Nobody, certainly not me, are being distracted by the inclusion of Sinckler in any policy-making body. I think it is arrogance on the part of the president, the people having rejected Sinckler and his tribe less than two years ago, and suggests, as some of us suspect, she has no respect for her Cabinet colleagues nor for the traditions of parliament.
As to the so-called stimulus, the journey (how we got there) is as important as the destination (the so-called stimulus). So far the story is not nice.
The president went on medical leave, she emerged on April 11 to speak presidentially to the nation, during which she announced a CoVid economic council, naming only t wo members: a man that spent 14 years as prime minister and drove the economy in to heavy debt; and one who should have the good grace to leave public life after his near ten years as finance minister.
Then she emerged from her sick bed again to give an interview to a popular American cable network, then to make a near-two-hour speech making further presidential announcements on a so-called stimulus.
The fundamental point is that she has appointed at least eight people to a CoVid economic council, six of whom were not previously announced, to my knowledge. All eight of those now chair sub-committees, but we have been told nothing about the make-up of those sub-committees. @William, is that not important in our democracy?
The content of the stimulus is economic gibberish; how our democracy works is key. You also mentioned concern for ordinary working people.
Of course we are all concerned about working people. Have a look at the president’s Bds$200m tourism fund to see how she continues to shift money from the poor to the wealthy and well-connected. These are important issues.
There are some comical moments in the appointments: such as Arthur to come up with ideas for 20000 jobs within two years (am I cynical to believe that in two years time we will be coming up to a general election and the presidential can go in to the campaign claiming to have created 20000 jobs? No. don’t be silly). He can always put those jobs on the public payroll.
@William, we must scrutinise every aspect of this government. It has no respect for parliamentary traditions; no respect for the voters; no respect for our democracy, and most important of all, the president has no respect for her parliamentary colleagues. -
@ Hal
You wrote: “ You also mentioned working people……”1.No where did I mention working people.
2. Here is what I wrote regarding the stimulus:
“ The simple truth is that the stimulus as outlined ,is economic planning as usual. In other words there is not one innovative or creative idea.
Obviously it is business as usual ; back to cosmetology hoping that tourists will flood GAIA and the port within a matter of months. That in itself is an absurdity. Tourism to all intents and purposes. as we know it , is dead! Should the airlines have to operate as presented: third seats out; masks; increase cost in sanitary maintenance etc, the cost of airfare would rise. Imagine tickets costing more and less passengers. Higher fares less passengers and we in sharks guts. Furthermore , do we really think that people going to quickly return to cruises, after the recent deaths on tourist liners and do on.”
I think you have your lines crossed.
3. I have bluntly refused to comment on Mottley’s political gyrations re: Arthur and Sinckler.
Quite frankly Mottley not turning up or turning up when she likes is of no concern to me.
She is the PM and like all other citizens, I hope that she has overcome recent publicly expressed medical issues. Mottley is no bigger a threat to democracy than any of the ones who went before her. The electorate put her where she is. Should they determine she or her party is a threat to democracy, I imagine they would remove her.
What concerns me is that even with such a huge majority and the opportunity to develop a new economic policy for the country ,and with all the consultants and multi economic/finance ministers ,she presented a very visionless stimulus package that is essentially devoid of any policy that indicates ,outside of constantly saying things are going to be different, clearly shows that things will not be done differently.
Sinckler is not the issue; Arthur is not the issue; the committee she formed is not the issue. The issue is that the PM seems oblivious to what is required in a post COVID economy.
4. As I said, I will support and continue to support the government’s efforts in combatting the virus. I take this opportunity to say that the matter is being handled extremely well under the circumstances. And the government should be complimented for its admirable efforts. -
What admirable efforts
The first and biggest mistake was allowing people from hot spots to enter barbados through various ports of entry
What is so admirable about such a policy
The next biggest mistake is knowing that the country did not have enough swabs to do a wide range of testing however continue to leave the borders open
Now only to be hooting and begging people to contact govt officials after it has been revealed that people who came through barbados ports carried the virus and had mingled amongst the population
The test in this case which is relevant to be called admirable lends itself to prevention and when govt is place under the microscope of prevention it fails miserably
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