grenville-phillips
Submitted by Grenville Phillips II

With zero new COVID-19 cases reported over the past 5 days, the end is in sight. We started at a trend of 20 new cases each week, then 8, and now 4. If we continue to have zero new cases over the next 2 days, we would have reached the goal of zero new cases in one week.

The Government must take the good with the bad. Therefore, they deserve praise for the improving trend. Well done.
We have flattened the curve before the Government had planned. The Government was wise to plan for the worst. Happily, it seems unlikely that we will see the worst. This puts the Government in the enviable position if having options.
We have a significant amount of health resources that we may no longer need for the COVID-19 response. We can either squander the resources on unnecessary use, or we can maintain them for a similar pandemic.
A more urgent issue is the 24-hour curfew. A deadline of 4 May 2020 was determined on the assumption that we would had had a lot more cases.
The longer the curfew is maintained, the greater the debt-burden on Barbadians, who are spending without earning. Soon, they will run out of access to money.
It is important that the Government share the plan for allowing persons to return to work. It is equally important that the Government share the plan for securing our borders, to prevent an unnecessary reoccurrence of infections.
Grenville Phillips II is a Chartered Structural Engineer and President of Solutions Barbados. He can be reached at NextParty246@gmail.com

 

187 responses to “Flattened Curve”


  1. @Lyall

    Thanks, Amit will not mind. The only reason BU has not highlighted his graphs was because of the reporting lag. Based on what you come up with the suggestion is for BU to create a separate blog space to locate the slicing and dicing of the data previously submitted and going forward.

    Missing from your analysis is the percentage of population carrying antibodies which is a key indicator required to inform policymakers the extent to reopen the country.


  2. Missing from your analysis is the percentage of population carrying antibodies which is a key indicator required to inform policymakers the extent to reopen.

    Don’t put too much faith in this. The usefulness of this is limited approach is limited. The situation is more complex than this.
    Doubt the Dullard? Go listen to Tedros.


  3. @Dullard

    Policy makers must hang their decisions on some thing.


  4. I for one will be watching our PM on CNN today as a proud Bajan.

    Has she done everything right? Of course not.

    Has she made mistakes like closing the supermarkets and creating havoc? Of course she did.

    Should we have done more wide scale testing? Of course

    However all in all I would say her government has acted well in their handling of the epidemic. I never knew much about Minister Bostic before, but he has impressed me the most. From how he handles the press to his hands on approach with answers when asked. He also never appears flustered and maintains a level presentation showing no outward signs of panic.

    Did we make mistakes? Of course We did, but we have also contained the virus. We had ventilators to spare and pur infected patients lacked for nothing. Our deaths as a percentage of infected is on average. Also our positive to tested percentage is also within the global average.

    So maybe I can’t give them 10 out of 10 but I will give them an 8 at least. Which is more than i can give many other major countries by the way.

    So in closing we may well have to live with this virus long term as we do the flu. Hopefully a vaccine will be found, but in the meantime we will have to practice social distancing and mask wearing. let’s all still hope we can get back close to the life we all enjoyed pre covid sometime soon.

    At least release me from house arrest as I swear I had nothing to do with the Donville issue! Lol


  5. David;

    Re. your 11:23 am post above especially where you say:

    “Missing from your analysis is the percentage of population carrying antibodies which is a key indicator required to inform policymakers the extent to reopen the country.”

    I forgot to mention antibodies.

    In addition, antibody testing is, as far as I am aware, not yet available here in Barbados.. But, given the experience of New York, the antibody tests there indicate that times more people are infected than are indicated by the standard diagnostic tests. i.e. There are several asymptotic carriers out there throughout the places where Covid-19 hit and might have retreated from.

    I think, at this stage, government should assume the worse, given that current information suggests that the disease can be spread from asymptotic carriers. A lot more research is needed in this area by the US and other wealthy countries as we do not have the resources to do it ourselves at this stage.

    I’ll post the amit graphs soon.

    lyallsmall


  6. @Lyall

    Added a COVID 19 Page – see link at top of blog.


  7. The UK’s deputy chief scientific adviser on CoVid is Jamaican. She is also chief scientific officer to the ministry of defence. Is that another first for the Jamaicans, the most creative English-speaking Caribbean people?


  8. This country cannot reopened until a large percentage of its population has been tested
    So far we have less than one percent being tested
    So far we have evidence that shows they are people who were infected and had not been tested
    The probability of opening up the country sooner gets dimmer as in the weeks and coming months more people would show signs of having the virus


  9. What country in the world could wait till covid infections reach zero to open? Covid may well end up being a virus we will all have to live with like the common flu. I doubt covid deaths have reached the global deaths recorded yearly for the common flu as yet.

    Barbados will reopen on May 3rd as other countries are doing all over Europe on May 11th. Will they open as they did pre covid? Of course not they will reopen with new guidelines in place, as we too will no doubt do.

    What percentage of the total population of the USA, England or Europe you think been tested? Remember don’t get tie up in the numbers the USA claim to be testing, instead look at the total percentage of the population tested instead.


  10. The UK’s deputy chief scientific adviser on CoVid is Jamaican. {Quote}

    It is a fact that the Chief Scientific Advisor was born in Jamaica. What Mr. Tough Guy left out was that she is white and spent the majority of her life in England.

    So, it isn’t as though she was brought from Jamaica for the job or was recently living in the UK before she got it.


  11. We will not even reach 100 cases of infection in Barbados in the end. All those who proclaimed a new Armageddon in March and early April are totally wrong.

    Our climate is killing the Wuhan killer bug with the support of good governance.

    Thank you so much, dear Mia Mottley!

    The ancient African gods protect us. The white man’s god has failed.


  12. @Dullard , Policy makers must hang their decisions on some thing
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    But that ‘some thing’ is not enough at the moment. Faulty tests would exacerbate the impact of any subsequent waves. In this case no test is better than a bad test.

    At this point in the pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate.” People who assume that they are immune to a second infection because they have received a positive test result may ignore public health advice. The use of such certificates may therefore increase the risks of continued transmission. As new evidence becomes available, WHO will update this scientific brief.

    https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19


  13. @Dullard

    Thanks

    >


  14. On National Heroes Day i salute all the front line and essential workers who have given of their time as a living sacrifice to be on the front line of helping to save lives from the deadly Corona virus
    The doctors
    The nurses
    The scientist giving of their time to find a vaccine
    And essential workers who have put their feet to the fire effortlessly by way of providing necessities in order to keep many households up and running
    To All of You i Say a Duty when call to serve
    A Duty you provided
    God Bless all of you


  15. Hard Ears.

    Yesterday (27 Apr 2020), the Chief Medical Officer confirmed what the data clearly revealed over one week ago – Barbados has avoided the worst-case scenario.

    The growth in COVID-19 cases is under our control. There is currently a cluster of cases at the National Assistance Board, but even that is under our control. The only cases that we have had in Barbados, can be traced to people who entered our ports unrestricted.

    The current restriction is that travellers may self-quarantine for 14 days. This means that they are not allowed to leave their residences during that time. However, they may infect their: family that resides with them, immediate neighbours, and visiting friends. This needs to change immediately.

    What should have happened, is that travellers should have been allowed to self-isolate, only if their premises could accommodate them. Self-isolating alone, in a separate apartment, or in a room with an adjoining bathroom, may be effective. Self-quarantining at home with others, clearly is not.

    Rather than address this glaring weakness, we are being told that that since no commercial flights are coming, there is no need to do anything. Are they aware that that is now verified flawed logic?

    On 15 March 2020, Barbados was one of the few countries in the world that had no COVID-19 cases. Rather than treasure that reputation, we illogically decided that since we had no cases, there was no need to do anything.

    Despite Solutions Barbados’ almost daily pleadings to secure our ports, we did nothing effective for the next two weeks. We waited until we had reached 45 cases, and were one week into the critical Stage 3, before finally deciding that all travellers must self-quarantine for 14 days.

    Allowing travellers unrestricted entry was clearly foreseen to bring cases of COVID-19 to Barbados – yet we allowed it. The self-quarantine was clearly foreseen to be ineffective – yet we allowed it. Why are we still so unwilling to learn?

    Grenville Phillips II is a Chartered Structural Engineer and President of Solutions Barbados. He can be reached at NextParty246@gmail.com

  16. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @Robert
    like nearly ALL of her life. Her father, a Professor of Toxicology, went to work for MRC after graduation, and Angela was born in Kingston where he was part of a team studying infant malnutrition. If his bio is to be believed, he was there for <18 months, before going to Chicago and then returning to the MRC. Unsure where her birth fit into her father’s timeline in Jamaica. But being born in Kingston, makes her Jamaican.
    This is @HA continued attempt to belittle Barbadians. He wrote he is not sour, yet why else would one do this continually?


  17. @ Northern Observer

    We have had this before. It was my dislike of Canadians, now I am sour about Barbados. Plse explain in the below my attempt to belittle Barbadians. Is it by saying Jamaicans are the most creative English-speaking Caribbeans? If that is incorrect, plse point out my error. Or is it that the woman is Jamaican? Is that incorrect, or does it belittle Barbadians?

    The UK’s deputy chief scientific adviser on CoVid is Jamaican. She is also chief scientific officer to the ministry of defence. Is that another first for the Jamaicans, the most creative English-speaking Caribbean people?.(Quote)

  18. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    But being born in Kingston, makes her Jamaican.[quote]
    I did not challenge any of your factual statements. Neither did @Robert.
    I will allow others to draw their own conclusions.


  19. @John A

    Tomorrow:

    CBC BARBADOS
    @CBCBARBADOS
    ·
    1h
    CNN’s Christiane Amanpour will interview Barbados’ Prime Minister, Hon. Mia Amor Mottley MP, tomorrow April 29th at 2 PM.
    CBC TV8 will broadcast the interview live.
    Join us tomorrow at 2!

  20. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    I cannot follow all of BU, the PM is also part of a youtube entry titled Rise For All.


  21. @ Northern Observer

    You made a substantive statement about my continued attempt to belittle Barbadians. I have asked for a) evidence of such a conclusion about my specific post about the scientist; and, b) examples of my ‘continued’ attempt to belittle Barbadians in general.
    Further, I asked if the ‘belittling’ is my reference to Jamaicans being the most creative people in the English-speaking Caribbean. If that is incorrect, plse point out why.
    You have so far avoided my question by claiming you did not challenge my factual statements. But what are facts in my statement?


  22. This is @HA continued attempt to belittle Barbadians. He wrote he is not sour, yet why else would one do this continually? {Quote}

    @ NorthernObserver

    SPOT ON!!! YOU ARE CORRECT. IGNORE THE BACKGROUND NOISES.

    I have been saying for a long time now that Hal Austin is a very DISHONEST and DISINGENUOUS man.

    Nobody did not dispute the woman was born in Jamaica.

    But he cannot use a woman who, although she was born in Jamaica, she did not grow up there, having spent the majority of her life in England, as an example to say Jamaicans are the most creative English-speaking Caribbean people.

    It was a VERY POOR EXAMPLE and proves he was only trying to belittle Barbadians. But, the arrogant buffoon won’t ADMIT IT. To do so would mean admitting to BEING PROVEN WRONG by people he views as BENEATH him. And, using that very poor example, had the gall to ask you to point out his error.

    Hal Austin comes here to control the narrative, force people to talk about what he wants to talk about. Just look at how he changed the Pandemic and Prices blog into a discussion about education, Timothy Callender and Combermere. He even implied that a man who said he knew Callender and his family, did not know what he was talking about, because he (Austin) went to primary and secondary school with him. When the man insisted, he covered it up by talking some nonsense about people moving from north to Black Rock.

    I hoped you noticed that Combermere was only IMPORTANT DURING THE TIME HE ATTENDED the school and when a white man named Major Noott was the head-MASTER.

    He believes he is the most intelligent man here, while everybody else are stupid. He makes a lot of open ended comments so when people challenge him, he could say their interpretations of those comments are wrong.

    You realise the only body whose comments are always misinterpreted are his? Somebody always fabricating things against him or said something about him they can’t prove.

    He feels he has the God given right to determine whose opinions are right or wrong.

    People MUST ACCEPT his opinions without question. If they don’t agree with them, they are a silly, appallingly ignorant, buffoons that learn by rote, savages that should be in the jungle, a barking wild dog and suffering from something he calls the Bajan Condition.

    THE ARROGANT BUFFOON BELIEVES HE KNOWS EVERYTHING ABOUT EVERY DAMN THING.

    Then, he come to BU and INTERACT and carry on conversations with the SAME people he calls SAVAGES and DOGS and EXPECTS THEM TO BE COURTEOUS AND POLITE TO HIM.


  23. Hal has a right to speak his mind
    Yes i agree Jamaicans are head and shoulders above bajans when it comes to creativity
    Just take a look at bajans need to be copy cats even from the same Jamaicans they cuss out
    Bajan radio says a lot about bajan love for Jamaican creativity sounds and sights included
    Even at crop over one would be hard pressed to find some form of originality bajan style outside the usual wukup


  24. “On 15 March 2020, Barbados was one of the few countries in the world that had no COVID-19 cases. Rather than treasure that reputation, we illogically decided that since we had no cases, there was no need to do anything”

    Flogging a dead horse. This assumes that if they “did something’s we would have no cases. Is this true.

    The number of deaths and number of infections convinces me the government course of action is a close approximation to the best course of action. Not perfect, but successful.

  25. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @Robert
    you clearly follow his posts closer than I do. His derogatory comments are endless. Today we even saw “Welcome to the People’s Republic of Soviet Barbados”. He saw nothing worthy in the PM of Barbados being interviewed by a top UK journalist Christiane Amanpour (she was born there?) who has worked for numerous major networks, rather, he focuses on CNN (she also currently works for PBS). “There are hundreds such networks” the media mogul tells the blog, “a television interview to a US cable network. Crumbs.” Only thing is, Amanpour whose prior interviewees reads like a who’s who of international politics, film, monarchies, religion etc etc, works for CNNI or CNN International which broadcasts to 212 countries and by methods other than cable. Frequently Amanpour, anchors the show remotely (the wonders of technology!!) though the production location for the show “Amanpour” is London UK. Hence the “When was the interview done and where?” is his effort to continue his saga, the PM is unwell, and should be addressing the people of Barbados via the CBC or whatever. Meanwhile, none of the thousands of UK based journalists, can determine whether newly returned PM Johnson (or is he President?) will appear in House tomorrow. No 10 did not know? Why do they NOT know? It is less than 12 hours away? Something must be wrong? Johnson is clearly not well, and not telling the British people everything? How can he return to work if he is not fully recovered? What is this waffle reported in the Guardian about “keeping his options open?”, he has either returned to work or he is still recovering? He is a public figure, we need to know everything.

    I gone…..the wall needs a second coat of paint.

  26. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    @ac
    “How is it that when a question poised to one of seeking answers from govt the comment never sees light of day”
    I can commiserate with you. I never expect for govt to answer a question posed to the blog. But on THREE occasions, I wrote to two former Ministers, asking about Clearwater Bay. Since I didn’t even get an acknowledgement to my first two efforts, I sent the third by Registered Mail. Still waiting for a reply. Maybe they ended up in the same File #13 as your post? At least all your efforts are not disposed of, like my correspondence may have been. Many of your posts, or should I say, your posts are many, end up on BU daily; every cloud has a silver lining. Don’t fret, I have asked the same questions of a current Minister, no answer yet, but an acknowledgement. What was it FJS used to say….maybe in the fullness of time I shall receive a reply?


  27. My memory takes me back to ten years ago when the Unions were loud and outspoken
    Ten years later the Union voices are no longer heard as if they have become drawf like statues set in an era of forgotten time
    Ten years ago BU was a place where all voices and opinions could be heard
    Ten years later BU has compromised and has fallen short in its desire to be the voice of encouragement but rather places it decisions based on narratives that support ruling govt
    A fight for a right for freedom of speech seems to be cast aside and place against the right for govt to do as they dam please
    The day is fast approaching that BU like the Unions would be cast aside and all efforts to remain as a beacon of light for the people would become an uphill battle as well as an afterthought
    Saying all of the above as comments made by me yesterday in reference to a family member plight caught in govt incompetence because of govt failure test an individual who had arrived in barbados was removed
    Shame on David Shame
    For as day runs into night your time to fight for freedom of speech will be revoked


  28. Notice a video of a crew member or captain of one of the cruise liners docked in Carlisle Bay gave kudos to govt
    I also heard the gentleman stating that he is looking forward to returning to barbados along with the many visitors on their cruises
    What this gentleman might not have realised or come to an understanding since being docked and locked away from all of lifes new realities that until there is a vaccine cruises would be a staple of peoples memory as most would be hesistant to sailnon a vessel which can be host for many virus and find themselves caught in the epicentre of death sailing on a ghost ship


  29. @ Northern Observer,

    This is becoming ridiculous. You said about my post on the Jamaica-born scientist and my reference to Jamaica being the most creative country in the English-speaking Caribbean as ‘belittling’ Barbados.
    You also said you accepted the facts of my statement. But you have not said what those facts were and what were not. Still waiting for an answer. Who is now trying to shift the conversation?
    You have done this before. I said previously that Mark Carney was not the best person for the appointment of governor of the Bank of England, which was on the basis of his performance at the Bank of Canada. He was widely criticised for his performance at the BoE, including by his predecessor, Lord King. He failed in that post.
    I pointed out that it was like appointing a Championship manager to the Premiership and expect the same performance. Canada is not a first division economy, I said. It is not.
    I also pointed out on another occasion that Canada should not be a member of the G7, if by G7 we mean the top seven economies in the liberal world. The Canadian economy is number 11. I said it was a member simply because it was a white-majority country.
    And, on another occasion, one of our Bajan-Canadians said he had a Canadian passport and was now a Canadian. I pointed out that a passport does not make one Canadian, no more than it does a Bajan with a US passport or a UK passport. (note the consistency ie with David Thompson as a Brit and Boris Johnson as a Yank).
    You summed up all that as meaning I was anti-Canadian. I corrected you on that, but it still seems to be an issue. I will ignore your recent postings, let us go back to that of the scientist: tell me in that what was an attempt to belittle Barbados?
    As to the People’s Republic of Soviet Barbados, please re-read Caswell Franklyn’s post on the constitutionality of the president coming off her sick bed on April 11 to announce two names to a non-existent CoVid economic council then returning under her blanket. Remind me, what were your comments about that brief essay in BLP democracy by Senator Franklyn?

  30. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    Yes, totally ridiculous.
    1) I could give a flying flamingo about Carney. The BOE hired him. If he wasn’t the ‘best’ candidate that is their problem. If his performance was subpar, that again is their problem. Why they kept him on after his term ended, is also their problem. If you think he failed, go complain to the BOE.
    2) G7? This is your issue not mine. I have never claimed Canada was the economic power worthy of inclusion. They got in, for after the Big 5 added Italy, the US decided they would be a good appendage. Giscard and Trudeau Snr had a history. Giscard didn’t want Canada, because of that and because he felt if Canada was added, then the Benelux should be added and he didn’t want that. I am unaware that Canada in 1976 was any whiter than either of Italy or the Benelux. If you believe Canada was added because it was a white majority country, then keep believing. @SS claims it is why they call us the Great White North.
    3) whatever YOU believe about what a passport makes or doesn’t make a person is YOUR choice. This is 2020. For me, it is what a person chooses to identify as. If a person, who came to the island long after I left, but invested there and ran a business and employed Barbadians and paid taxes, and took out Barbadian citizenship, and identifies as Barbadian, my hat goes off to them. That person has contributed way more than I have. They have earned it.
    4) I have written to Dame McLean and asked her how she chooses to identify. When she replies, I’ll let you know.
    5) I quickly scanned CF postings and found no reference to “People’s Republic of Soviet Barbados”. Then again they were 1700+.
    6) I will ignore your recent postings…of course you do.


  31. @ Northern Observer

    Again, I do not want to bore people more than they have been bored, but you must be challenged on fabricating nonsense just for a cheap laugh.
    You are avoiding the substantive issue. You claim my post was a continuing attempt to belittle Barbados. Plse state why. You also said you accepted the facts of my brief post, but did not say what facts. That the woman was born in Jamaica? Her positions? That Jamaica is the most creative nation in the English-speaking Caribbean.
    The other references to Carney, the G7 and Bajan-Canadians were issues you also challenged me on previously as evidence of my being anti-Canadian, as I stated.
    Stick to the issue, in my post what was an attempt to belittle Barbados? I do not want to associate you with others, but it is a regular thing by some on BU. One even went as far as to suggest I said a highly respected businessman had forged his qualifications. That is potentially libellous.
    Again, nothing to do with you or BU, but on another Facebook blog one person accused me of robbing people in Canada and other financial crimes on the basis of my name. He had lots of likes. That, I suggest, is the problem with Googling.
    That is not your fault, but it shows how some anonymous people can say irresponsible things irrespective of their veracity. Let us make BU more responsible, a platform for ideas, and not just a flag-waving blog for abusers. That is the chairman’s responsibility.


  32. @ NorthernObserver

    He came here and said with authority that Rocklyn Transport and Elite Bus Company were among the private bus companies that the government took over in 1955 to form the Transport Board.

    Bloggers asked him a lot of times to prove it and up to now he has not. He IGNORED them, but push for a response from you. So, why can’t you ignore him too?

    Forget the stupid argument, you made your point and it is time to move on. Don’t let him make this all about him.

    Do just like what he told PLT on another blog:

    Once you know you are being honest, right or wrong, you do not have to explain yourself. It is for your critics to prove your lack of integrity, not for you to prove it. {Quote}


  33. IT IS ERRONEOUS TO SAY THAT Rocklyn Transport and Elite Bus Company were among the private bus companies that the government took over in 1955 to form the Transport Board.

    Rocklyn Transport WAS STILL GOING AFTER 1980 TO ST SIMON AND LAKES


  34. Essential Workers.
    We highly commend our Prime Minister. She has allowed many of us to resume earning, with some reasonable restrictions, on 4 May 2020. Solutions Barbados supports the Stage 2 opening of our economy.
    The PM shared an important concept during her speech last night (29 April 1020). She stated that we are all on the front line. We agree with that concept. Some are essential to all of us, while others are essential to those in need.
    Police officers may be essential to our general safety. However, if I need a computer part, then a computer store is essential to my productivity. With that understanding, we can put essential workers in context.
    If you are seriously sick, then doctors and nurses are essential to your care. If your house has a plumbing leak, then a plumber is your essential worker. If your tyre is flat, a tyre repair technician is your essential worker.
    If your house has electrical damage, then an electrician is your essential worker. If you have discovered a termite trail leading to your roof, then pest-control is an essential service to your household. The point is that all workers are essential, when their services are required.
    It is important that we learn from this experience. Stopping essential workers from providing their essential services, should never be a first action. It should be a last resort, when all other options have been exhausted. If essential workers must stop working temporarily, then that suspension should be as short as can be logically justified.
    It was reasonable to shut down the economy for 2-weeks, to get the COVID-19 growth in cases under control. Once the growth was under control, healthy essential workers should have been allowed to work, while protecting at-risk persons.
    We are heartened that good sense has prevailed. It is our sincere hope that any future plans that can harm us, will be properly discussed, before they are implemented – on us.

    Grenville Phillips II is a Chartered Structural Engineer and President of Solutions Barbados. He can be reached at NextParty246@gmail.com


  35. David; How does one delete a “Like” that was incorrectly inserted?


  36. @Lyall

    Tap on the like button to remove.

    >

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