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COVID 19 Probe – Is 6′ far Enough to Dodge Aerosols?

The following comment was posted by BU commenter yallsmall to the blog COVID 19 Challenges for SIDs – A Lack of Discipline Exposed. An interesting exchange which probes the urgent need to define a relevant strategy to effectively fight COVID 19 – David, Barbados Underground Those posts were an attempt to publicize what I think…

The following comment was posted by BU commenter yallsmall to the blog COVID 19 Challenges for SIDs – A Lack of Discipline Exposed. An interesting exchange which probes the urgent need to define a relevant strategy to effectively fight COVID 19

– David, Barbados Underground

Those posts were an attempt to publicize what I think might be the most important misconception by the Epidemiological community as well as the Politicians in this whole global Pandemic situation.

The most recent pandemics or near-pandemics in the world have been caused by coronaviruses. Reducing or eliminating the spread of these viruses require the use of very old techniques used with a mix of new ones. The science of Virology has modernized the tools that are used for designing protocols for control as well as make the visualization of the pathogens and their interaction with host cells whether human or non-human more apparent. The study of relevant aspects of the pathogen (e.g. Covid-19); the host (man); and how the pathogen spreads and infects the host (e.g. if vectors are important and how so) as well as the determination of the environmental factors that assist in or detracts from the rate of spread.

It has long been known that most Coronaviruses attacking humans are spread by droplets as well as aerosols. Droplets from coughs do not travel far under ordinary circumstances but aerosols produced by the rapid drying out of droplets could travel several times the 6 ft limit that has been determined for droplets.

If it is true that Covid-19 spreads by aerosols it would require a significant reworking of the 6ft distancing rule and suggest that that rule might have inadvertently contributed to a significant proportion of the horrendous carnage that Covid-19 has caused around the world so far.

The Czech authorities have had a relatively good outcome, so far, in their war against the spread of Covid-19. They appear to attribute this mainly to the universal use of Masks. The US has had to be dragged kicking and screaming to recommend the voluntary use of low quality masks. It is quite possible that the universal use of good quality masks by the total population might fill a large part of the void between the suppression of aerosols and the 6ft space.

There are many aspects of this area that could promote a good wide ranging BU discussion.

Relevant links:

178 responses to “COVID 19 Probe – Is 6′ far Enough to Dodge Aerosols?”

  1. John Avatar
    John

    Now, can we get back to work?

  2. John Avatar
    John

    Hal

    Here is what you can do when you have got over your fears and are thinking rationally again.

    Get the data on the total number of deaths in the UK for the first four months of this year and compare it with the total number of deaths for the first four months in previous years.

    My guess is you will become angry!!

    My guess is deaths that would be attributable to diabetes, heart disease etc will be lumped into a new category, COVID-19 and there will be little difference to discern.

  3. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    @ Quaker John

    You are ahead of me. I was here thinking that you are the only person on BU that could dig out the figures for the number of deaths from Feb 1 2 to April 21, 2020, and compare them with the same period for last year – ALL deaths.
    In the UK they are doctoring the death certificates and, as usual, it was a black family that exposed it. They are putting on death certificates ‘suspected CoVid-19’, whether the dead person had been tested or not.
    I sent the video to the chairman but, he claims, for technical reasons, it could not have been shown. A pity because it denies readers more information.
    I suggest you read a book called: Superior: The Return of Race Science, by Angela Saini. It is powerful. Remember Hitler was not a lone wolf, he had armies of scientists, business people and academics backing his theory of racial superiority.
    The UNESCO Statement on Race did not do away with this line of thought in science, it simply drove it underground, until it started to re-emerge in ideas of racial intelligence and as a result of the human genome project. Once you dehumanise a people, you in fact dehumanise everything about them.
    Three hundred years ago Christians used to say blacks had no soul; but modern day secular priests, scientists, now claim our differences are cultural/lifestyle/genetics. In other words, nature has made us the way we are.
    But have a look at the figures for previous days/weeks/months and compare them with now. Then we can extrapolate from that the causes of the increase or decrease or explain the similarity in numbers.

  4. John Avatar
    John

    Hal

    I repeat:

    Here is what you can do when you have got over your fears and are thinking rationally again.

    Get the data on the total number of deaths in the UK for the first four months of this year and compare it with the total number of deaths for the first four months in previous years.

    A death is a death, regardless of cause, regardless of what it says on the certificate.

    Just compare the number of deaths for the first 4 months of 2020 with the deaths for the first 4 months of 2019, 2018, 2017 etc.

    This is a simple rational suggestion.

  5. Miller Avatar
    Miller

    @ John April 21, 2020 7:21 AM
    “The realist in me says it was just like a normal flu and ran its course.”
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Why, then, do you allow the insanity in you to worship your god the Trumpeter of folly who is referring to the same “normal flu” as the “invisible enemy”?

    Are you seeing your hero in the WH as the modern-day Don Quixote of America and yourself, his sidekick, the Bajan Sancho Panza and mulatto Robin?

    The man with the false hair has been chomping at the bits for a war with an imaginary enemy.

    Like the ghost of Banquo paying a visit to Macbeth, the Trumpeter and king of braggadocio now has a real war on his hands with an invisible foe called the apparition of Gen. Covid Soleimani.

  6. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    @ Quaker John

    You have the Bajan habit of anticipating people’s mind. I said people in the UK were scared, you have somehow interpreted that as meaning I am scared. I am not.
    It is none of your business, but my funeral plan was a part of my retirement plan, including a medical power of attorney and instructions not to resuscitate if anything unfortunate happens to me.
    I have also planned my funeral, a Christian one, which is tweaked occasionally, with the changing of hymns and additional passages from the Bible. I have also asked a friend, a retired clergyman, to take the funeral if I die before him. He agreed to. I am fearless, prepared for the final day whenever it comes. In that, I am like my mother, who went to her grave with great dignity.
    My mother died in a Brooklyn hospital and I was at her bedside (ironically, her nurse was a Barbadian married to a young man from the Ivy) and the only thing she asked for occasionally were painkillers. It left a lasting impression on me.

  7. John Avatar
    John

    Hal Austin
    April 20, 2020 3:02 PM

    @Quaker John, the people in the UK are scared. They cannot afford to Google and play little mind games.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Every time they watch the Telly they are playing little mind games with experts who are yet to be right.

    No wonder they are petrified, I would be too … if I had a Telly … and actually watched it!!

  8. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    David, re. my 6:13 am post I forgot to mention a key fact. That is that it is possible that our perpetual summer condition of relatively high temperatures, reasonably long sunlight hours, etc. might be acting to somewhat ameliorate the virulence and severity of Covid-19. This simple possibility can be used to develop a strategy for getting our traditional tourists from Europe and the US back in a shorter time frame than most posters here deem likely.

  9. David Avatar
    David

    @Lyallsmall

    Have been reading of this opinion taking on a currency of late.

  10. John Avatar
    John

    Miracles do happen

    https://www.foxnews.com/health/massachusetts-man-coronavirus-recovery-lung-injuries

  11. John Avatar
    John

    Hal Austin
    April 21, 2020 8:49 AM

    I have also asked a friend, a retired clergyman, to take the funeral if I die before him.

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    The two of you aren’t Quakers by any chance?

  12. lyallsmall Avatar
    lyallsmall

    David;

    I’ve sent you a pdf file to update the graph. There are now six straight days with no additional cases

  13. David Avatar
    David

    https://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/covid6.png

  14. David Avatar
    David

    https://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/covid7.png

    David; Please update the graph with the attached version. There was 1 more positive case announced today as well as 1 death. A slight uptick of the daily cases line is indicated in the graph by the blue line. The total cumulative number of positive cases from the tests carried out yesterday is 76 – Lyallsmall

  15. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    A FAMILY MEMBER of the 66-year-old woman who tested positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) yesterday is charging that Ministry of Health officials mishandled her case, since this was over three weeks she suspected she had the virus.

    https://www.nationnews.com/nationnews/news/245152/family-ministry-dropped-ball-covid-19

  16. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    @ Lyall Small April 21, 2020 11:13 PM

    It is like I said “wait and see.” It all comes back to the time slot 15-22 March, when it was not mandatory to quarantine persons. There is obviously a person Z in the community. I must admit your graphs do look impressive.

  17. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    https://researchbriefings.files.parliament.uk/documents/CBP-8875/CBP-8875.pdf

    Policing the crisis

  18. David Avatar
    David

    @Dr. Lucas

    The circumstances how the last case came to the public should be of grave concern to us all. Barbadians are being asked to make a sacrifice to contain the virus and if the press report is true that the medical team was careless processing the last reported case then we have to ask the CMO and Minister Bostic to explain themselves.

  19. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    @ David April 23, 2020 5:58 AM

    I haven’t read the press report. Accidents will happen especially when one is dealing with over worked and inadequately protected workers. I doubt it was carelessness. In any event there is a P.A.H.O report purporting to say that the numbers of infected persons is being under reported in this part of the world. It was just reported by V.O.B 8.00AM news that testing is being ramped up from fifty to six-hundred today. This ramping up tends to support my stance, that the authorities are trying to track down the persons I have been referring to Z, who made up those who were allowed into the island and not held in quarantine between 15-22 March 2020. I really do not believe the part you alluded to about ‘careless processing.” I think that there is a search on for a fall-guy.

  20. David Avatar
    David

    @Dr. Lucas Read this report.

    https://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/covid_report.png

  21. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    @ David April 23, 2020 8:33 AM

    Some one seemed to have dropped the ball, but at that time there was a shortage of every thing. It does not however discard my point. First of all the government worker who infected this particular person, where was she exposed to the virus if she never left the island? It seems that every thing points toward the time slot of 15-22 March 2020. Apparently it is proposed to test six-hundred persons today according to 8.00AM V.O.B news and requests have made for retired Defense personnel to help in the tracking process. It is obviously hoped to nip things in the bud. Despite some errors a reasonable good job has been done considering the constraints.

  22. David Avatar
    David

    @Dr. Lucas

    The comment is not meant to be destructively critical, more about being transparency with discussion.

  23. robert lucas Avatar
    robert lucas

    @ David April 23, 2020 10:27 AM

    Point noted.

  24. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    ….. from other blog…

    @David, I see now that the article referred above was noted on [this] blog, […]

    I understand the ‘anger’ of the family but I come away with the same sense of hopelessness for the loss of commonsense as I did when I listened to the interview of the Bajan-Brit who has recovered from cov19 but whose mum, aunt and brother remain infected.

    I am not beating up on anyone… I look at these matters as ‘what would I have done in either of those instances – as a well informed, concerned Bajan – …. without being prolix, I surely would have been a bit more careful and doubly cautious with my elderly mum around…. I would have quarantined here in her room and cared for her with an expectation that she was infected (masked up, no contact with others unnecessarily, cleaning regularly etc etc) until Paragon came or I took her there.

    We can blame the govt all we want on their response tactics but good lord all this data presented DAILY is for us to act SENSIBLY when confronted by possible infections …in short ANY flu symptoms should be handled as cov19 until proven otherwise.

    In neither of the cases highlighted did the relatives display that level of blunt reasoning …it seems to me. That’s unfortunate and distressing and one wonders what are we actually INTERPRETING and UNDERSTANDING from all these warnings.

  25. David Avatar
    David

    @Dee Word

    It is a difficult time. For the world.

  26. David Avatar
    David

    Interesting information:

    https://www.telesurenglish.net/news/italian-scientists-find-covid-in-eye-fluids-20200423-0005.html

  27. David Avatar
    David

    https://barbadosunderground.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/covid9.png

  28. Hal Austin Avatar
    Hal Austin

    Here are some comments from the archives.

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