The following comment was posted by local microbiologist Dr. Robert Lucas to another blog – Bajans Jettison Social Distancing for Cheek by Jowl. The blogmaster regards it as one of the most important points shared on Barbados Underground since the status of COVID 19 was elevated by Prime Minister Mia Mottley.

David, Barbados Underground

Let me repeat what I have stated elsewhere on the Blog.

The curfew has to rigorously enforced. Once this is done, there is no need for contact tracing. I will explain.

Those who manifest symptoms are easily managed. It is person Z who comes into contact with a person (asymptomatic or beginning to show signs) and is unaware of the fact, who poses the immediate threat. By having the curfew and rigidly enforcing it, means that person Z is localized to a fixed area.

There will be more than one person who qualifies for the nomenclature Z. Since the curfew is rigidly enforced when the Zs become ill and use the hotline, hot spots are known. There will be a number of these hot spots. There should be isolated and all persons in the vicinity of the Z’ screened and placed into mandatory quarantine. No crap about voluntary quarantine.

For this method to work, it means that very tough enforcement it needed. None of this crap about human rights and individual liberty. Human rights and so on can be dealt with after the situation is under control…


Elsewhere on the Blog, I said that a twenty-eight day curfew was needed. I explain my reasoning as follows: there would be different viral incubation times for different individuals. Twenty-eight days would appear to be time for all individuals to show manifestations of the infection.

 

688 responses to “Local Microbiologist Calls for Curfew to be Extended to 28 Days”

  1. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    “NOW IS THE TIME TO PLANT ALL AVAILABLE AGRICULTURE LAND WITH FOOD AND NOT MARIJUANA/WEED AS THESE NO VISION POLITICIANS HAS BEEN HELL BENT ON DOING TO BENEFIT A FEW AND NOT THE MASSES.”

    Told them from the get go that it is a spiritual plant and bad Enuff it was criminalized for decades and even when it was made legal without the people’s knowledge, they took over 2 decades before one of them let the “legal regime” slip thinking he was being slick..

    …however because yall are so cursed since you refuse to look after your own people WITH THEIR MONEY or allow them free enterprise to thrive and grow….yall burnt down the whole thing with ya bad intentions..


  2. WHAT GOVERNMENT SHOULD BE DOING IS WAIVING VAT ON ALL FOOD ITEMS FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TO ASSIST ALL WHICH INCLUDES THOSE WHOSE INCOME HAVE BEEN DRAMATICALLY CURTAILED.

    THEY NEED ALSO TO COME UP WITH A FINANCIAL PACKAGE FOR AFFECTED BUSINESSES AND UNEMPLOYED OR A LOT OF PEOPLE WILL REALLY SUFFER FROM STARVATION IN THE NEXT SEVERAL MONTHS.


  3. John A that is one possibility but the other side of this is that the customer might also get what they need as well.Why .uzt you always be so negative about everything ?You getting like Mariposa, Baje,Austin, Greene and a few others looking to score cbeap political points.Tbisis un chartered waters and some things will go well others not so well. The government is following the advice of the health officials as they are not doctors neither are you.Therefore chill out and seebow things play out.Austin seems impressed by Ms Bradshaw who although improved today was in my view not impressive before in my view and should not be placed in that position again in my view going forward.Austin like with Mr Thompson before seems impressed with style over substance as Ms Bradshaw like Mr Tho.pson is not in Ms Mottley,s league now or in the forzeeable future in my view.She has a long way to go but time is hopefully on her side.

    8


  4. You getting like Mariposa, Baje,Austin, Greene and a few others looking to score cbeap political points.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    SHOWING YOUR IDIOTIC THINKING AGAIN.


  5. Yeap Mia has practiced the art of deception
    Santia still is fresh but has a long way to go
    Santia style is refreshing rather than that mocking finger pointing gesture up in the peoples face which Mia has adopt as a way to communicate doubled by wanting to showboat Trump style
    So friggin annoying


  6. Why are a higher proportion of black Americans dying from coronavirus than any other ethnic group? Is this coincidence?

  7. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    First of all @Mari, no i didnt… i was not in mood to hear political posturing so i opted to get the details after the fact.

    You are STILL not making PRACTICAL sense… so I dun did you after this, too!

    The 1)baskets are options for ease of purchase. As wid any online or real basket of goods its a selection of choices. As I understand it they are simply using their comprehensive consumer purchase metrics to identify a basket of goods most ideally suited for use … this is not willy nilly but based on purchase histories!

    That’s STANDARD business algorithmic practice… the successful ones do it to focus ad spend, just in time stocking and other best practices! Is this that alien to you!

    Respectfully sir but “Now pray tell how easy would it be for me as a shopper when placing the order to accurately decided which basket is appropriate for my needs” is HOGWASH.

    As a shopper you pick the selected basket that meets your budget and most closely also meets your needs… if NONE do then prep your own basket.

    If you want *”As a shopper….up and close look of my purchases not a prescribed prepkg basket of what some cashier belive is best for me” then either wait until this is over to eat, go to a friend’s house orrrr simply create your own basket at purchase.

    When you shop in Pricesmart at Christmas and they have those prewrapped baskets of sweets and other goodies at a supposedly good price YOU choose to buy one if and only if it meets your needs…can you PLEASE explain what is the technical difference here. …Y ou are being obtuse for its sake to be critical.

    Yes the setup in NOT perfect but its not so ridiculous as you make it out to be either …we will get back to holding those juicy melons and squeezing them with a gleam in our eye and tweaking off a nip of grapes to test their sweetness… one day…. right now you have to trust another’s judgement that the fruits and vegs you get are perfectly good… or GROW YOUR OWN!

    I dun wid you and dat sir.


  8. @John A

    Let us agree there is no model to follow slavishly. Several of the large countries are making it up as they go along and while they are doing so the death toll is in the thousands.

    Let us agree the government perhaps in hindsight made an error here an there, is there a government dealing with this virus that can be said nailed it? As we debate the issue.

    Let us also agree that of the thousands trying to buy foodstuff last week it was was panic buying and not that there was a need. The challenge is to attend those who need.


  9. @ Mariposa
    It was refreshing watching Santia. He has the making of a great leader. Out must go the shouting, the unintelligent waffle, the repetition, the three-hour harangue. There is now a real alternative to the president.
    All Santia has to be careful of is surrounding herself with the wrong people. She will grow with experience.
    By the way, is the president recovering from her medical procedure? In the middle of war the general goes missing.


  10. Salemite WARU

    You’re truly an illiterrati! I don’t understand your comments about being ungrateful and the US. But that’s expected–confused, confusion and confusing are synonymous with you and your rants. becomes you. When BU gum bumpers ranted about the supermarket closures, I said the acting PM made clear a solution was coming. Once again Mottley and her government have silenced the agenda seekers. For those talking about incompetence, T’dad just further changed their strategy and we all know what’s happening (or not) in the great Amurka and Britain. The clown show continues!


  11. No i do not have to trust another judgement
    Trust of those who make everyday decisions for the world is what got the whole world in a mess and people suffering
    I dont want to order a basket and then when i received it the items are not of use then to be told “well that is what we have”
    When i pay for an item such as food i want to pay careful attention to quality
    Reason why i do not buy fast food


  12. “If I told you 1 major supermarket outlet sold roughly 1 million separate items on Friday….”

    @ John A

    Do you mean any given Friday before or within the curfew period?

  13. WURA-War-on-U Avatar

    Fowl…the supermarkets need to be opened, stagger the times and the hours, that is all people are asking. Yall creating more confusion…people have to be able to purchase their food without yall incompetents directing another cockup..

    Stop trying to act like yall are so different and end up coming up with total shit….everyone is going through the same thing so ya are not special…well not in intelligence anyway..

    ya trying to stand out but only succeeding in being a laughing stock….


  14. Barbados recorded its third death today and three more in critical condition


  15. The blogmaster sat on his bed and ordered groceries and vegetables that were delivered in 3 days. Covid will force behaviours that are required in a today’s world. The pandemic presents too many challenges to allow for entrenched behaviours to take over. What we have observed in other countries is not that supermarkets are open, it is that healthcare systems and front-line medical staff have been pressured to the point of compromise.


  16. A

    I have no desire or need to challenge you “hypothetical” math skills. Why when someone disagree with you you does have to pull the “political” card? are you insecured? are you disagreements with the government political?

    The world had changed! Barbados has changed! the supermarkets may never open back they door full again this year ….hopefully I am wrong and we get a hold on the virus soon.

    You can go back to my post and you will see I have been calling for a shut down of the island for couple of time before the government did it.

    I have a wife and kids in Barbados. if this don’t affect you all will be good but if someone go into one of the same supermarket and somehow the virus get back to you that way then you will be singing a different story and all you calculations = a big fat 0


  17. @ David.

    In my world you do the logistics and then work backwards. In other words what is needed to implement this plan successfully to X people. Then you say ok so to service 5 times X or 1000 times X would be. If this was viable you know I would support it but it is not.

    Secondly most supermarkets closed with half empty shelves so are you saying you are allowing the distributors 2 days to replenish everyone? Another impossibility.

    You and I know after Christmas it takes days for the shelves to look good again. The volume of business supermarkets dealt with on Friday was the heaviest sales per hour most have ever recorded. Thus you can imagine the stock that must be replenished.

    Either open them tomorrow of leave them closed till after Easter. If you were going to leave them till after Easter though, then let the distributors replenish them this week.

    Lord I tired of these half way approaches and daily change of plans. They you blame the poor consumers for panicking.

  18. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    @John A April 7, 2020 2:38 PM
    “The move by government to try and half open the supermarkets will prove a waste of time by tomorrow evening.”
    +++++++++++++++++
    It is quite simple to design a logistical system within the supermarkets to facilitate ordering for pickup or delivery. The key is simply to recognise that the supermarket needs to expand staffing levels because the consumers are not themselves doing the labour of taking the items off the shelf and placing them in the cart. There are thousands of out of work Bajans who are qualified to do this work. Hire them.


  19. Let me say that poltically anyone can like or dislike what I say it really doesn’t matter to me.

    XXXXXXX

    Does that mean that you are being political?
    OR
    Someone that disagree with you would have to be political?


  20. We have to assume the retailers discussed the logistics with government after last week to inform the move announced today. Let us continue to refine. It is better to err on the side of caution. We need to contain this virus. On Tue, Apr 7, 2020 at 8:25 PM Barbados Underground wrote:

    >


  21. @ Artax

    The Friday of the curfew is the Friday I meant. Sorry my apologies. I can also tell you the average spend per person was on average 2.5 times that of a normal Friday as well.


  22. @ Hal

    Why are a higher proportion of black Americans dying from coronavirus than any other ethnic group? Is this coincidence?

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    IS THIS FACT OR WHAT IS BEING PORTRAYED BY MEDIA?

    ALSO WHERE DEMOGRAPHICALLY ARE YOU SPEAKING OF?


  23. @ PLT

    I agree it would take much more trained man power. It will also take a major upgrade in equipment. From phone lines to printers, upgraded credit card facilities, an online inventory package to processing and on and on. Then you have the older crowd to think of too many of whom don’t even own a computer.

    The other side of the coin is that no supermarket is going to invest in this capital outlay for the short term, knowing full well once things settle down people will return to the supermarket.

    My contention is why is Barbados doing what no other country in the world has done with respect to supermarkets?


  24. LOL!!!!

    That’s a good wun. Float the talk bout how impressive Santia was. But so far nuhbody en tek de bait (or debate) and comment.

    So, wuh yuh do? Yuh pelt de bait at Mariposa, who will answer fuh 2 reasons. (1) because it ’bout Santia, and anything about de BLP she gine oppose, so she gine comment…. and (2) as long as the chairman of her fan club pose a comment at she, she gine feel obligated to respond.

    There is a belief that when Mariposa respond, some people gine find it hard not to respond to her waffle. When they do, it gine then give de chairman de opportunity to expand on his Santia thing some more.

    What Mariposa don’t realize is dat her chairman duz use her as a pawn. He knows that she does write a lot uh waffle yuh can’t understand. So, wuh he duz do is to pay her nuff compliments and swell she head, ONLY when it suit he purposes and den he duz set she up…… so he can talk bout what he really want to talk about.


  25. @ David.

    You got to understand any retailer would of said yes we can handle it. After all its an opportunity to sell! When they can’t handle it they will simply say ” we did not anticipate demand to be so heavy.”

  26. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    @Hal Austin April 7, 2020 4:04 PM
    “Why are a higher proportion of black Americans dying from coronavirus than any other ethnic group? Is this coincidence?”
    +++++++++++++++
    It’s no coincidence. It is a consequence of poorer health as well as poorer health care insurance.


  27. @Peter

    This is correct, a nobrainer. They also do the jobs that expose them to contact to add to your comment. The live in the projects etc.


  28. Let us agree there is no model to follow slavishly. Several of the large countries are making it up as they go along and while they are doing so the death toll is in the thousands.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    Experts say the true number of people infected is unknown and likely much higher than official tallies.

    SECONDLY YOU ARE COMPARING A SMALL ISLAND WITH COUNTRIES WITH MANY MANY MILLIONS OF PEOPLE WHO ALSO HAVE A BETTER/WIDER TESTING REGIME IN PLACE.

    GUYANA 600,000 POPULATION HAD ITS FIRST POSITIVE CASE CLOSE TO 2 WEEKS BEFORE BARBADOS HAD ITS FIRST, BARBADOS 1/2 THE POPULATION SIZE HAS SHOT WAY AHEAD OF GUYANA IN NUMBER OF POSITIVE CASES.

    GUYANA SUPERMARKETS AND PHARMACIES STILL REMAIN OPEN.

    THEY HAD CLOSED AIR AND LAND BORDERS AT LEAST A FEW WEEKS AGO.

    BU BLOG NOW SEEMS TO HAVE BECOME THE GOVERNMENT MOUTHPIECE.


  29. Rob

    SPOT ON!!

  30. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @Mr Blogamster and you forgot to add: and supermarket front line workers are DYING from covid too.

    What a thing eh!

    MAKE THE ONLINE WORK! I am at a complete loss at the level of criticism on this effort.

    You guys read the same news I do….. so you know that the maguffies like Wal-Mart in some states are employing some draconian methods for shoppers…only a few shoppers per time and other really crazy stuff and those are normally massive sq footage buildings …whats so wrong with this push (other than the mark of that chip of the beast)!


  31. Giving out specific pick up slots is staggering!! Minimising contact while getting food is sensible–curbside, home deliveries and pre-packaged bundles make sense. It is good to see that the supermarkets are using data i.e evidence to put together these bundles. We are so backward but pretending to be progressive. Shopping for groceries online is what many people do overseas in the “non-failed” states. As far back as 2007/2008 Super Centre was offering a quasi-online shopping service, by now it should have been fully implemented. Massey? Just like working from home is being proved to be a legitimate option in B’dos, online grocery shopping on a larger scale will. All yuh see how useful a facility like M-Money could be and why electronic payments rather than cheques is the way forward? Bdos post-COVID pandemic should hopefully be a more forward-thinking and acting society.
    Regarding the Nation and only interviewing a white man, that man had stories in the British press so the Nation could obviously contact him. Who on BU knows who are the other released patients? As far as I know their identity (rightfully so) was never revealed. So how would the Nation carry out interviews?🤣😋😋


  32. DPD

    SHOULD BE NO WORRY FOR MARI

    ASS EATS GRASS


  33. @enuff

    Use the crisis to force more efficient behaviour in the people. A behaviour like you stated we have been dragging our feet for years. People will adapt, especially for good.


  34. @ DPD

    nobody is saying that WAL-MART etc not using their online, what we are saying is no where in the developed world were supermarkets closed. Nor has Wal-Mart closed any of their retail stores either.

  35. peterlawrencethompson Avatar
    peterlawrencethompson

    John A April 7, 2020 4:37 PM
    “I agree it would take much more trained man power.”
    +++++++++++++++++++
    It is much more simple than that. Just apply the KISS principle. They are not going to invest in a real ecommerce platform in the short term; what is more you pointed out that a large fraction of their customers have no computer.

    The only hardware they should get is a dozen cheap mobile phones that can handle WhatsApp. That takes an hour at most. Then have people send their shopping lists with address (and a WhatsApp pin for delivery location if they are under 40) and the order clerk prints these lists and gives them to the order pickers (no need for trained man power). Simple, fast, cheap, and mostly foolproof (although someone will undoubtedly invent a more powerful fool).

    If the order is for pickup send them (by WhatsApp) the pickup appointment time. If they are late they have to go back home and wait until the store sets a replacement pickup appointment.


  36. @Baje,

    Michigan, for example, Chicago, Milwaukee.


  37. All this would of been unnecessary if a decision was made to Enforce the personal space requirement. That is all that was required.

  38. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    Crystal clear @PLT re *”It’s no coincidence. It is a consequence of poorer health as well as poorer health care insurance”… However, the incidence has the attention of main stream news so here we go.

    The other day when POTUS inexplicably (but politically) opted NOT to reopen the insurance market window to allow new signups that news made no news…

    Look for the conspiracies to expand that this is about culling populations … because the facts of this pandemic are more unbelievable that the worst fiction…

    …As I’m sure you guys heard the story of the author who wrote about a pandemic back 15 years ago and his publishers TOSSED the book into file13 because they said it was too ‘UNREALISTIC’ …

    …. the book ‘LockDown’ was released last week after the new editors said OMG…this is happening now!

    What exactly is going here must be a case of a bio test that got out of control…as this is just too unrealistically real!


  39. I THINK SOME OF you in here really want the supermarkets to remain open so that the number can go up and yhen you will beat up on the government.

    Not you A,. although you can be low class sometimes 🙂 I don’t think you that low.


  40. @Hal Austin April 7, 2020 4:04 PM
    “Why are a higher proportion of black Americans dying from coronavirus than any other ethnic group? Is this coincidence?”
    +++++++++++++++
    It’s no coincidence. It is a consequence of poorer health as well as poorer health care insurance.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    @Peter

    This is correct, a nobrainer. They also do the jobs that expose them to contact to add to your comment. The live in the projects etc.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    WHITES MAKE UP THE HIGHEST PERCENTAGE IN THE US FOR POVERTY AND NOT BLACKS.

    The average gross monthly income per food stamp household is $731; The average net income is $336. 37% of participants are White, 22% are African-American, 10% are Hispanic, 2% are Asian, 4% are Native American, and 19% are of unknown race or ethnicity.

    The distribution of residents living in Project-Based Section 8 (POOR) housing units is similar to the racial composition of ELI renters. About half (49%) of Project-Based Section 8 residents are white, about a third (33%) are black and 13% are Hispanic


  41. ptl

    The older generation that cant use a pc,.
    Just like the old days, write the list and give it to a younger person. that person can do the WhatsApp or whatever and also the pick up. the older person stay at home as much as possible.

    DPD

    I when to HD today. line outside was short so I decide to get inline. When I got inside ans saw the amount of people, although they were well spaced, I hightailed it out. will get my plants and items another time.


  42. @ John 2

    Thank you for the benefit of doubt. Lol

    All I saying is the logistics show this isn’t going to work based on the current situation. Anyhow we will wait to Thursday evening and see, as I have no problem with being proven wrong.


  43. @ Baje

    You must learn to ignore some ignorance sometimes. I saw that nonsense and chose to ignore it. I hope someday we will get serious discussions instead of just political shouting.


  44. @ @Baje,

    Michigan, for example, Chicago, Milwaukee.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    THESE ARE ALREADY KNOWN HOTSPOTS FOR BLACK ON BLACK MURDERS AND KILLINGS IN THE US.

    YOU WILL FIND UNFORTUNATELY MANY OF THE BLACK PEOPLE IN THOSE AREAS ARE IN SURVIVAL MODE WHERE HARD DRUGS USAGE AND SELLING IS THE CURRENCY OF THE DAY AND HEALTH CONCERNS ARE A LOW PRIORITY.


  45. @ Baje

    Add all those sociological pathologies to the mix and coronavirus is just another. That is the nature of the beast.


  46. @ John A

    Let’s assume the authorities decide to allow supermarkets to remain open and, as you suggested, deploy RBPF and BDF officers to enforce law, order and ‘social distancing.’

    I’m sure you’re aware not every customer owns a vehicle and many of them use public transportation or the supermarket’s shuttle.

    After observing all the precautionary measures instituted by the supermarkets, wearing masks and sanitizing everything, these people have to ‘catch’ a B, BM, Z, ZM, ZR or the shuttle to get home.

    What are your recommendations? For example, should PSVs be restricted to having one passenger in each row on both sides of the vehicle?

    Knowing that over the past few weeks, PSV operators have experienced a fall in revenue, under these circumstances, do you believe operators would be inclined to observe ‘social distancing,’ since, for example, it won’t be financially advantageous for a mini-bus to travel from Princess Alice terminal to Speightstown with 12 passengers and not being able to ‘pick up’ some along the way?

    Another thing. Are your numbers based on what transpired during last week’s ‘panic or bulk buying?’

    If so, have you taken into consideration that, at that time, consumers were essentially shopping for what they wanted as opposed to what they actually needed?


  47. GUYANA 31 CORONAVIRUS CASES AS OF TODAY. HAD ITS FIRST POSITIVE CASE 2 WEEKS BEFORE BARBADOS.

    600,000+ POPULATION.

    CLOSED AIR AND SEAPORTS, OPEN SUPER MARKETS AND PHARMACIES.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    BARBADOS 60 CORONAVIRUS CASES AS OF TODAY

    280,000+ POPULATION

    OPEN AIR AND SEAPORTS, CLOSED SUPERMARKETS AND PHARMACIES.

    xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    SO WHO IS REALLY TREATING THEIR POPULATIONS LIKE IDIOTS COULD ONLY BE DONE BY A DESPOT.

    BARBADOS CONTINUES TO BE THE LAUGHING STOCK AND CARRYING A LOT OF DEAD WEIGHT AND APOLOGISTS.

  48. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @John A, let’s agree to disagree on the practicalities of your remark “nobody is saying that WAL-MART etc not using their online, what we are saying is no where in the developed world were supermarkets closed. Nor has Wal-Mart closed any of their retail stores either.”

    Based on what I had read, heard from others etc the practical situation with some large food retailers is akin to closing as compared to Bim.

    *1)Target is some cities has announced they will only be selling essentials. Thus half of their store are closed.
    *2)Wal-Mart is some locations were reported to have very restrictive numbers in stores and at certain hours only have the self checkouts in use. And too certain parts of the stores are closed.
    *3)TraderJoes in one city closed for a few days after TWO workers from that store died.
    *4).Amazon warehouses also had a slew of positives in some locations and workers wanted to go on strike demanding better protection, cleaning etc

    Thus when I compare those PROBLEMS to Bim..then I say yes we are right to close…. So I cannot condemn the admin or this strong stance. It can be made to work and the PROBLEMS that can accrue to our frontline supermarket workers CANNOT be allowed to equate to any in the developed countries.

    We have to fit needs to purpose…Bim has seen its future and it looks bleak so she decided to close supermarkets and push online sales… when the developed countries have not closed… HOW can we criticize her for that over LOGISTICS…No sir, cannot follow your logic here. They will fix the logistics.

    We have the lives of retail staffer to lose if not… none of us are of course paid to risk our lives in non-security jobs but at their level in particular they are really not paid the bucks to take that risk.

    Just saying bro!


  49. Everything is ignorant if it is above your pay grade.

    steuspe

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