The first month of the new year saw at least three murders taking place. The victims were David Bedford (44), Marlon Holder (38) and Jason Hobbs (35). Bedford and Holder died in St. Michael and St. James respectively. In the case of Hobbs, his body was found at the bottom of a cliff in St.…
The first month of the new year saw at least three murders taking place. The victims were David Bedford (44), Marlon Holder (38) and Jason Hobbs (35). Bedford and Holder died in St. Michael and St. James respectively. In the case of Hobbs, his body was found at the bottom of a cliff in St. Philip. During the same period last year, i.e. January 2019, (at least) 9 murders took place.
The dysfunctional social landscape which saw 49 murders has not been addressed in any structured and systematic way. Any abatement is luck and chance affair.
Does the silence of the ‘political you know who”
Mean that the government measures are working?
So far so good, but don’t let us shout too soon. I agree with David (BU),since the mentalities of individuals in possession of firearms in the region, and indeed the world, means we may never be more than moments away from an upsurge. The soldier in Thailand who killed 29 and wounded over 50 tell us what were are up against with armed individuals.
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John2
Hamicb65
I totally agree
I was hitting at those he politicize the murders
If the other shooting had taken lives we would probably in par or above last year total
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fortyacresandamule
@David. Fair enough. However, despite the 62% increase in murder for 2019, that by itself doesn’t make a trend. Our ten year average (2008-2018) is about 28.9 murders per year.
You should look beyond the murder numbers. What about the trending of gun crime that will create opportunity for a disruption of the trend if you throwaway 2019 as an outlier.
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chris
This just the calm before the storm.I Agree this David none of social issues have been solved and about have all of last years murders remain unsolved.last year in the parish of ST Philip there were 10 murders countless number shootings and robberies and not a single arrest even this year they shootings in ST PHILIP its only a matter of time till revenge killings start back up
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fortyacresandamule
In peace time, huge flare up in violent crimes in any given year, doesn’t automatically translate to a new norm, unless their is a war going on.
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fortyacresandamule
@David . Predicting violent crime trend is no easy matter.The variables are too dynamic and fluid. You are correct, the raw aggregate data isn’t much to go by. You alluded to the issue of a social structural problem, if that is the case, then we should use all means necessary to nip it in the bud.
This is true fortyacres but arresting social rot that has set in will take some time for countermeasures when f they are implemented.
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fortyacresandamule
@David. So true. That’s why vigilancy is essential. We cannot become numb and lose out outrage, else it becomes normalised. Bu higlighting this matter constantly on its platform is part of the solution. Kudos to you.
2006 we had 35 murders, the Murder rate 12.73
What is the best population estimate for 2019 290,000?
That gives a murder rate of 16.9 per 100,000
2018 to 2019 was an increase of 75%
The next highest annual increase was 2009 to 2010 – 62.5%
The historical data supports 2019 being an anomaly, also 2006 and 2010
The knee jerk reactions are not helping. When using statistics one has to be very careful not to cherry pick and insert bias. From what I see, there is no crime wave in Barbados and no need to panic.
If we look at the average over a decade
Average murder rate for the 2000s 9.35 and 10.16 for the 2010s
(If we throw out the anomaly of 2019, the average is 9.41)
There is no data available for the 90s other than 98 and 99. Average for those two years is 8.07
Let’s assume then that by decade the murder rate is increasing. What then are the factors influencing this.
I always say the best way to interpret statistics especially when complex variables are the subject is to look at statistics of less complex variables that are related.
So in this case for example the number of Policemen or the number of graduates from the Police academy. It has been reported that the academy struggles to attract the required number of recruits and there are concerns about the quality of the recruits.
Policemen are not paid very well and inflation in Barbados has only made the job less attractive.
We are only scratching the surface here, this deserves way more analysis than just reporting.
For 2018 the murder count was at least 32 by my numbers, not 28.
For 2017, the count was at least 31 by my numbers, not 30.
Full details are available via my blog. Details can be tallied to show the 32 (2018) and 31 (2017) values respectively. Note also my use of the words “at least.”
Thanks, appreciate the feedback (good and bad). This is a complex topic in Barbados and throughout the Region. The causes are wide and varied: economic, social, drugs, et cetera.
However, I hope that by collecting, compiling and, more importantly, publicly disseminating the data in an easy to access format, that conversations will take place, and that solutions will eventually be found and implemented that reduce the count.
There is no gainsaying the fact that “The causes are wide and varied : economic,social,drugs,et cetera” These elements ( causes if you will) have always and will always be present in the Region.”While, by collecting,compiling and …publicly disseminating the data in an easy to access format,… conversations will take place “, all will be to little avail or of no value so long as the NRA and the gun manufacturers are able to oppose even a minimum of change in their modus operandi ……specifically with respect to ‘the’right to bear arms’ and the incorporation and use of new,available technology.The problem is truly multifaceted ! Any hope for any semblance of even limited resolution must also consider ‘credible deterrence’.Perhaps the it may be helpful if Caricom states would unite and present their case to the appropriate USA authorities. Again, in this regard,we should also consider the Singapore example wherein :
(1) Unlawful possession/carrying of arms is punishable by imprisonment and caning.
(2) Attempting to use arms while committing a schedule offence is punishable by death.
(3) Accomplices present at the scene are subject to punishment by death
(4) Unlawful possession of more than one firearm is punishable by death or life imprisonment with caning.
SERIOUS VIOLENT CRIME……PARTICULARLY MURDER…..IS DEFINITELY ON THE INCREASE IN FORMERLY PEACEFUL (EVEN IF POOR) BARBADOS!
There is truth in that good ole dictum,”A burnt child dreads the fire!”Let there be a referendum on the ‘laws governing corruption and violent crime’.specifically as it relates to deterrence !
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