Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in 2019 and takes questions from the media and the live online audience. Central Bank of Barbados’ Review of the Barbados Economy in 2019.pdf (4.16 MB)
Governor Cleviston Haynes delivers the Central Bank of Barbados’ review of Barbados’ economic performance in 2019 and takes questions from the media and the live online audience.
Central Bank of Barbados’ Review of the Barbados Economy in 2019.pdf (4.16 MB)
@ David BU
What are we to think? Think for ourselves. Think outside the box. Who do you think is more “intimate ” with the information and data? The IMF does not collate data. The IMF does not understand, at an intimate level, how the Barbados economy works. Do they have a superior methodology? I doubt. The Governor and Deputy Governor have been exposed to the same methodologies. It comes down to persomal judgement.
@ Miller
Who do you think program and design those algorithms in AI ? Your SUN God ?
@Vincent
We have listened to Governor Worrell before he was forced out of office and ALL of his predictions fell short of the mark. He would have been familiar with the economy as you opined.
History has show that growth is well correlated with the adoption and implementation of new technologies.
Long term we need to address how new technologies are adopted and implemented. I have seen an attempt by the current administration but it wasn’t well thought out or planned (ASYCUDA). ASYCUDA isn’t even new tech.
Adopting new technologies requires the training and development of scientists, engineers and technicians. Unfortunately UWI seems more interested in churning out graduates in Management, Accounting and Political Science.
ASYCUDA was an upgrade.
@ David BU
Last attempt. Forecasts by their very nature are prone to fall short of outcomes. So get accustom to them.
@ David January 31, 2020 10:11 AM
Are the IMF’s tools of forecasting growth in the Bajan economy different from the model(s) employed by the CBB?
are they both using different data collection tools and data bases?
Can you remember any projections made by the guv for economic growth over the last 10 decades which have come close to the reality on the ground?
Even the unemployment figures are a set of bogus calculations with a ‘politically-determined’ standard deviation of over 75,000 dumped into the catch-all category of “Voluntary Idle”.
@Miller
As stated above given we have entered BERT and that Dr. Kevin Greenidge – a Barbadian – has been intimately involved in the technical discussions, one has to assume there is no reason why central bankers and the IMF should not be able to reconcile a forecast within touching distance of each other.
@ Vincent Codrington January 31, 2020 10:38 AM
“Who do you think program and design those algorithms in AI? Your SUN God ?”
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++=
People!
And mainly Jews; but certainly not economists?
Who would create a model to put themselves out of work and into the history book of irrelevance like the donkey-cart maker?
Certainly not you, VC, when you were king on the economist hill!
Where is my friend Bush Tea when he is needed most in a debate like this?
@ David Bu
Should you not be more concerned whether there will be any economic growth at all? Why are you straining out this gnat and swallowing a camel of likely further decline? The differences are not statistically significant. What data span did the IMF use? What data span was the CBB report based on? It is a moving target based on the latest information.
@Vincent
The reason for concern is for the reason you stated, we need to grow to support ourselves.
However, for ten years this blogmaster has listened to the flowery promises coming from the Central Bank until we crashed and had to enter BERT to bolster foreign reserves and get technical assistance from the IMF. All some of us are saying is that it is time for a more relevant narrative hat is aligned to a strategic pragmatic approach.
@ David BU
Agreed. Let us concentrate on areas that will lead to growth. We are the ones who determine growth not the algebraic equations that Hal warned us about earlier to day. People and the decisions of people make growth happen.
I only need him to help me understand how come the IMF say we may grow 0.5% and he saying 1.5%. I mean his prediction is 3 times greater than the IMF one. So what de Gov know that the IMF don’t know? Or he going come around October and “revise” his prediction downward like Worrell used to do?
Just explain the variance Gov and I done asking questions (for today at least)
@ David
The blame for any rights or wrongs within the economy falls on the cabinet and the minister of finance. The same way we went after Sinkler we need to go after Mottley. The governor of the central bank does not set economic policy. It’s amazing that your apologist stance does not allow you to even mention the current minister of finance but you and others set your target firmly on Sinkler.
Apparently Mottley’s name must only be mentioned when there is good news. It’s called intellectual dishonesty.
Mottley can fire Haynes today. Haynes cannot fire Mottley. Sinckler fired Worell. Worell could not fire Sinckler.
Furthermore nobody voted for Mascoll Persuad or Greenidge.
@Mariposa
As so often, you are right. The elimination of absolute poverty is a more immediate policy objective than the nonsense of unending economic growth. Leave the expert macroeconomists to discuss the more technical issues.
@Rdguard
Growth normally comes from an increase in output per capita, or improvements in technology. Government wants growth, but it has no clear plans. It is lost. Where is Prof Persaud, the government’s chief economic adviser?
@William
You have a way of compartmentalizing most discussions on BU. We are discussing the report by Governor Haynes vis a vis what has gone on before. The PM and Cabinet given their mandate will do as they please. We have to find creative ways to exert pressure on decision makers read the political class – the Governor is one such person. It does not mean that criticism will not be directed at government. How quickly you have forgotten that Stuart extended his stay at Llaro Court for three months despite the howls from the citizenry.
@ William
The more I get to know you on BU the more respect I have for your tolerance. You explain the basics with the art of a school teacher. Have you by any chance ever taught at St Giles?
@Hal
What I have heard from some civil servants is directives are being given, there is no opportunity for discussion, no channels for feedback. It is like the Prime Minister is issuing decrees.
There also seems to be a strict timeline to get things done, by hook or crook. The million trees initiative is an example; poorly conceptualised, no real plan, just an end date.
I mentioned on another blog, the contractor who had advanced knowledge of the demolition of the NIS in June last year.
NIS building
@ John A
Come on now! You know full well that the governor was basing his optimism on what he would have been told by the minister of finance regarding new investments.
These questions need to be directed at the administration. If the governor is misleading the public he needs to be fired. That’s the position the majority of BU had in relation to Worrell. The same should apply to both Haynes and Mottley.
Like I said Worell should be having a good laugh. He was the victim of Sinckler’s incompetence. We await Haynes’ fate.
@Resguard
Do you recall why Arthur recruited an army of consultants?
It was to circumvent the bureaucracy the public service.
We can criticize Mia all we want and some of it is deserving but getting things done in Barbados is stress.
@ Vincent Codrington January 31, 2020 11:04 AM
“The differences are not statistically significant…”
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“Confused by Bank’s forecast
I am concerned about the quality of forecasting analysis at the Central Bank of Barbados.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) gave a growth rate estimate of 0.6 per cent for 2020 in its economic outlook for Barbados, which seems quite reasonable to me in the context of our ongoing economic austerity programme.
The Governor of the Central Bank has now given a Central Bank forecast of between 1.25 and 1.75 per cent.”
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Are you going against the learned Pro. Howard’s contention?
How can you consider the difference between 0.6 % and 1.25% (being pessimistically conservative by not using the bigger number of 1.75%) ‘insignificant’ in terms of an economy which has been experiencing the economic growth pangs of anemia for a decade?
That’s more than double the IMF’s projected figure?
There is clearly too much light between them not to consider a possible massaging done with politically-distilled oil called statistical gerrymandering.
@ Redguard
They are decrees issued by a despot. The only ‘advice’ the PRESIDENT accepts is from her childhood cronies. She has no respect for her civil servants nor her ministers. Just look at the chaos with the economy and the mess at CBC.
She believes she is entitled and bright, much brighter than those around her and she treats them as minions. Just look at her press conferences and the way she behaves. It is too late for her to change her behaviour.
I have been saying this since the since 2018. It is a lost opportunity.
I can tell there is no discussion around the Cabinet table, nor final decisions reached. Just look at the nonsense of a hotel corridor, of Hyatt, of the fantastic development plan and now the demolition of the NIS building.
Meanwhile, look at the slum that is Broad Street. If Cabinet was in charge, those clever people in the government would not willingly accept flawed policies; they ought to be ashamed of themselves.
@ Hal
I did teach there donkey years ago. More and more I am appalled by the intellectual dishonesty on this blog. The hard truth here is that the economy is not performing as we were told it would. I vividly recall the PM saying that “ Barbados was back”. It’s obvious that a picture was painted that had no connection to economic reality.
Sinckler and company did the same thing . The Duopoly are expert traders in untruths and deception. We are getting the exact nonsense now but suddenly there must be no criticism of this administration.
As you have correctly stated within a few months this administration would have been in office for two full years. That is more than enough honeymoon for anybody.
If the projections are off Mark they need to be addressed by the minister of finance. It’s called transparency. If there is a huge gap in projections between the Central bank and the IMF, the minister of finance needs to tell the nation why there is such an obvious disparity as explained by Dr.Howard.
@David
Arthur’s approach was savvy and the consultants were not childhood friends, the country was on autopilot and the consultants were there for operational efficiency.
This no feedback, no discussion approach will stunt the development of ideas from within. The ideas forum is smoke and mirrors
Yes the sanitation levy/contribution on water bills was an example of action by decree that was necessary and has paid off. But there was the opportunity to kill two birds with one stone if discussion and feedback were allowed.
We are water scarce country; residential water usage can be shown to be proportional to garbage generated. Instead of a flat levy, it would have been more prudent to link the sanitation levy to water usage. This approach would have been fair, it would encourage adoption of water saving tech and would not require poor persons having to apply to a Relief board.
Agree on the water issue. This is another problem we have to fix. So many issues.
@ Miller at 11:48 AM
Nice try.
I will not engage in the exercise that you and David BU are aiming for. It serves no useful purpose. And I am sticking to my guns: ” there is no significant statistical difference between 0.6 % and 1.25 %. As John A pointed out. they are, in real terms, negative growth. I have no intentions of going into the minutiae of the computation. If you cannot comprehend what John A has demonstrated arithmetically, you are more likely to be confused further.
@ William
Question: why can’t the Nation, the Advocate or Barbados Today offer Prof Howard a weekly, fortnightly or monthly column to comment on economic issues, instead of going to young immature and inexperience people to repeat the same thing every time no matter what the topic?
@ Vincent Codrington January 31, 2020 1:00 PM
Then the ‘fresh-face’ guv- applying the guidelines of a true technocrat- should have veered on the side of cautious optimism and kept within the ‘parameters’ of the IMF projection, (given the poor forecasting track record set by his predecessor).
And we are not talking about minutiae but sound ‘professional ‘reasoning!
BTW, don’t you think it would supremely professional if the Guv revises his ‘optimistic’ forecast in light of what is unfolding in the travel market about to be affected by the new virus on the world scene (and not just China)?
Don’t you think jitters generated by the virus about traveling especially to countries with already overburdened health services could affect the highly forex-dependent one-cylinder economy of Barbados?
We would settle for a 0.75% projection; just taken out of the miller’s magician hat.
Why have you assumed they have not offered and he refused? He is retired like you.
@Vincent
Nothing of the sort.
The Governors optimistic forecast if compared to the IMF has sparked created an unnecessary distraction.
Real growth is a stretch by anyone’s imagination
And an approach by govt to appease the sleeping masses
Any economist would take note and into consideration any or some of those economic factors that are necessary drivers helping to create growth
Most noticeably is a favourable employment level which can help to stabilize any economic fall from other negative factors which can erode investment confidence
Govt can send out messages driven with an intent to swoon investment but the long and short remains govt measures which are not derived to support household confidence which has been aggravated by high taxation
Along such measures govt has all but closed any doors whereby growth can be created/ generated
@ William
So you telling me the GOV formula got an allowance for “good will” built in it then?
Wunna too bad for true. Anyhow let we ease up on the Gov, he presented his report. If we have concerns on the variance in growth, maybe we should ask the MOF to explain the factors that lead to the gov saying growth will be nearly 3 times higher than what the IMF stated.
Maybe the MOF has furnished the gov with recent developments the IMF were not prive to. I mean when you talking a prediction for growth that is 3 times the other one, there must be an explanation that we need to be told about. Or should we?
I
@ .Johnny A
Time for the PM and MOF to speak up on these glaring contradictions as outlined by Professor Howard.
It is time for the Governor to speak to defend what he reported. He is the Governor, not a mockstick. There was a time the central bank was seen as independent and respected. Now we asking the politicos to defend the Governor. You all cannot be serious:
@ William
Don’t look at me I still waiting to here the true cost of the debt restructuring last year! LOL
@ David.
No we not asking for the MOF to defend the governor. The GOV would of made his predictions based on the data he has AND THE ADDITIONAL INFO THE MOF WOULD HAVE GIVEN FOR FUTURE ACTIVITY.
What we are asking the MOF is to please share with us the value of the projects that are guaranteed to start and their confirmed start dates. This is the ONLY thing that could amount for such a massive variance between the 2 reports. In other words what confirmed developments has the MOF confirmed to the GOV that have come about since the IMF growth prediction of 0.6%?
You all are asking the wrong man to answer wunna questions as he would be working for future projections based on numbers the MOF would have supplied.
So the GOV takes what he has from his records and request from the MOF ” so what happening boss over the next 10 months” marries his data to hers and makes his prediction on growth for calendar year 2020.
@William
@John A
Am I right in thinking that Prof Persaud is on the board of the central bank? If so, is there an official direct line from the bank to the minister of finance – and is that minister the prime minister?
A simple Google will list who are directors of the Central Bank.
http://www.centralbank.org.bb/about-us/governance/board-of-directors
@John A
One has to be realistic, the prime minister cannot speak to specific timelines, these are private sector projects. She can give a high level timeline. This is why the Governor must be able to distill and realistically process information. We do not want the Governor to hand us information he has received from the politicians.
@ Hal
As was the case with the true cost of the restructuring which was apparently a state secret, I also do not expect any explanation for the massive variance between the IMF forecast and the GOVs.
I mean what is a variance of (x3) between friends anyhow? Lol
@ david.
But to be fair to the GOV he has to get the data for future project starts etc from the MOF. He is not part of the negotiation team at the table when projects like Hyatt are being discussed. He does not know concessions given, start times or project valuation. If he does not get it from the MOF where will it come from then?
No GOV could produce a report without future data. Why do you think in the fine print he stated “growth will depend on project start up dates?”
He made his report and now we want an explanation from him and the MOF where this massive variance to the IMFs came from.
As the bajans say ” em is dat simple”.
What difference does it make if the near term forecasts for growth between the IMF and CBB are marginally off? As in previous similar issues, make YOUR OWN determination and govern YOURSELF accordingly.
There are several items which could vary, to produce such a relatively small variance. ‘We Gatherin’ being one, another maybe advanced knowledge BERT will not be followed to a T. Memory says 2020 contains some significant ‘economic reforms’.
The largest intangible remains, confeedense. This bell weather, tends to move slowly, and is based more on results than bravado.
@John A
The Governor has his team of research professionals who can access that true status of the projects in the pipeline. He does not have to take positions from the politicians.
Wasnt it told to the populace that the lowering of taxes to the business sector would have helped create confidence and economic growth for the country
A policy taken from the hand book of the 80’s trickle down economics
The treasury loss millions while Govt gave having an high expectation that the business sector would have pulled their fair share of the economic weight
@ Northern
You consider a variance of x3 a small variance?
If it was 0.6 to 0.8 well sure that is acceptable, but not one that has nearly a factor of 3 as a variance.
If we have a 4 billion dollar economy calculate the difference between growth of 0.6% and 1.5 % and tell me if the figure small
Piece the jackass poor fella you are now the headmaster of the blog. I did not realize your new role but i forgot you ststed you finished school at 14. Therefore you would not understand me because unlike you i deal in facts not shite conspiracy theories like how someone fire bombed your house or trying to fraudalently collect funds. I do not do such things.Tell me what happen to the 6 MP;s crossing the floor? I notice you stating an election will be called in 2021 let us see how that pans out.I hope you have bought the 20 toilet seats already because those are tbe only seats Atherley or Franklyn will be winning.All the advice you giviing Mr Franklyn and i have not seen him acknowledge any of it since like most of us he knows you are a madman trying to sound important and failing miserably. Go take your meds.
@ Northern.
Let me ask you of all people about what happens up north by you.
When a Dow 30 stock valued at say $100 misses its earnings by a penny what happens the next day when trading opens?
Well it loses value. So if investors will sell a share that misses earnings by a penny which is 0.0002% of the share value, you want me to accept a variance of 0.9 % and say oh well tomorrow is another day?
We get this type of crap reporting because we accept it. If the GOV comes back in November and revises growth down to 0.5% we will accept that too. We get treated like sheep because we behave like sheep.
This a govt that crticised concessions given to Sandals
Yet without thought or worry having not a single bird in the hand as proof gave the business sector a treasure trough of taxpayers dollars
The governor of the central bank would become the scapegoat after taking orders from the MOF to present a growth plan that would be hard to come by if private sector play their usual world of hands off
@ John A
I hope you realize that the premise of your arguments here today is that the IMF guesstimate is the correct guesstimate and the official CBB projection is the incorrect one. Tell me though, how can a projection be either right or wrong?
@ Hal
I don’t where Persuad sits but the Duopoly has made sure he eats.
@ John A
David is an apologist for the Duopoly. It’s the same crap he expected Worrel to do.
When the central bank was built Tom Adams literally oversee the construction and he was both PM and MOF. Sinckler was no PM but he fired Worrel. The buck stops at Mottley’s desk. Forget David’s stupid talk. I don’t know where a governor of a central bank go around asking potential investors when their projects will start.
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