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IMF Projects Low Growth for the Caribbean

The following report was extracted from the website caribbeansignal.com: “The IMF released its World Economic Outlook Update for January 2017 earlier today. The organization is projecting growth of between 3.4 and 3.6% in global output between 2017 and 2018, especially in emerging markets and developing economies. For Latin America and the Caribbean, projections range between…

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The following report was extracted from the website caribbeansignal.comlow-growth: “The IMF released its World Economic Outlook Update for January 2017 earlier today. The organization is projecting growth of between 3.4 and 3.6% in global output between 2017 and 2018, especially in emerging markets and developing economies. For Latin America and the Caribbean, projections range between 1.2 and 2.1% during the same period. However, outcomes may vary due to the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the incoming Trump administration.”

Click here for full article.

49 responses to “IMF Projects Low Growth for the Caribbean”

  1. David Avatar
    David

    It is interesting to observe what transpired in the House of Assembly today with Mia being shut down by the disgraced Speaker Michael Carington. Given the comatose state of the local economy one cannot but agree with the Opposition that it is a topic we should be debating every chance we get. ESPECIALLY with talk of the threat of a devaluation. The uncertainty means it will continue to be a bearish investment climate. There is no confidence.

  2. Violet C Beckles CUP Avatar
    Violet C Beckles CUP

    The Numbers will be even lower when dealing with A Massive Land fraud as investors look the other way,
    Nothing can help Barbados but Truth , More Down Grades to come,
    We have not been wrong Yet, for we hold ” Clear Title Power ” for investors,

  3. David Avatar
    David

    Has the moment of truth arrived?

  4. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    ECONOMY ABOUT TO BOOM !!!!!

    “After a few years of little growth we are going to see improvement in the sector this year and over the next coming years . . . . Personally I am confident and I put my money where my mouth is by undertaking this project,” Edghill told Barbados TODAY on the sidelines of the official launch of construction of a $30 million One Republic Place building in Warrens, St Michael.

    https://www.barbadostoday.bb/2017/01/17/edghill-comfortable-hyatt-project-will-get-the-nod/

  5. Hants Avatar
    Hants

    Sorry David…should have put that in the Diaspora corner.

  6. David Avatar
    David

    Is it not ironic the man building Republic Bank 30 million dollar building would utter his prediction and the managing director of the same bank has backtracked from his glowing prediction for 2016 to saying he now has ‘managed optimism’. The BS they feed us every day.

    #JA

  7. David Avatar
    David

    Barbados reserves perilously low

  8. Bernard Codrington. Avatar
    Bernard Codrington.

    @ David 8:47 PM

    I keep telling you that no man has the gift of prophesy. The best that man can do is to make a geometric projection based on the assumption that what happened in the immediate past will continue into the immediate future. In addition we all have personal biases, influenced sometimes on whether we just had a glass too much of ESA Fields 20 year old rum.

  9. Bernard Codrington. Avatar
    Bernard Codrington.

    The building contractor just started a 39 million dollar project so he is optimistic. Hence the future is bright.. Republic Bank MD , recently read the recent down- grade for GOB Debentures and he is pessimistic. Never ignore the psychological effect of new information on man’s outlook.

  10. Violet C Beckles CUP Avatar
    Violet C Beckles CUP

    https://nakeddeparture.com/2017/01/17/st-lucia-is-broke-says-chastanet/

    Dont feel bad ,Barbados broke also with the help of the Crowns Help by way of Lawyers and Ministers

  11. Violet C Beckles CUP Avatar
    Violet C Beckles CUP

    https://barbadosfreepress.wordpress.com/2009/12/13/barbados-mafia-waits-for-violet-beckles-to-die/

  12. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    I posted the following contribution to BU’s article: “GOVERNOR DELISLE WORRELL WARNS FOREIGN RESERVES CONTINUE TO FALL:”

    Artaxerxes January 12, 2017 at 9:38 AM #

    “As I mentioned in a previous contribution, Barbados has to pursue economic policies compatible with the economic model under which the island operates. And this includes monetary (exchange rate) policies that afford us the capability of MAINTAINING the exchange rate peg.”

    “You are aware that, and against the background of RAPIDLY DEPLETING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, Barbados has been RUNNING PERSISTENT BALANCE OF PAYMENTS and FISCAL DEFICITS while pursuing exchange rate/monetary policies to maintain the fixed exchange rate.”

    “Under the prevailing economic environment, a continuance of these policies will ultimately lead to a currency crisis, whereby investors, after losing confidence in the country’s ability to meet its debt and other international obligations, will sell their domestic assets in favour of foreign assets, (i.e. CAPITAL FLIGHT), which may have 3 results:

    1) A devaluation of the dollar
    2) Moving to a floating exchange rate
    3) Borrowing from organisations such as the IMF or entering an IMF program”

    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Interestingly, four (4) days after, I read the article entitled: “Has the moment of truth arrived?” in the Monday, January 16, 2017 edition of Barbados Today, in which the Governor of CBB Dr. Worrell made similar comments:

    “Dr. Worrell spoke specifically of an imbalance in the balance of payments where outflows of foreign exchange to pay for imports, etc. since 2013 have outstripped inflows from exports and investments, etc. He pointed to the pressure being placed on the foreign reserves which are critical to maintaining the two to one exchange rate.”

    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

    Dr. Worrell is an economist who has been “bound and gagged” by his political bosses and has to sing from their hymn book. We pay more attention to what Dr. Worrell says than what he actually says and means.

    A few years ago the Governor PUBLICLY ADMITTED that the much touted Medium Term Fiscal Strategy 2010-2014 and Medium Term Development Strategy 2010-2014, FAILED to ACHIEVE the DESIRED OBJECTIVES.

    And this came at the heels of Sinckler, while addressing the 185th anniversary luncheon of the Barbados Chamber of Commerce and Industry in May 2011, saying Government’s programme for the recovery of the Barbados economy is working.

    However, on June 13, 2011, Moody’s downgraded Barbados’ domestic currency rating to Baa3 from Baa2, with the outlook on both ratings being revised to negative.

    Moody’ took this action because of:

    1) Increasing concerns about the capacity of the domestic market to continue to absorb the elevated levels of government debt issuance at the same time that the country’s already large current account deficit is expected to increase further due to the recent rise in oil prices;

    2) 2. Our view that the government’s debt ratios are likely to deteriorate further over the next 12 to 18 months to levels that are no longer consistent with an investment grade rating given the small size and limited diversification of Barbados’ economy.
    Moody’s also downgraded Barbados’ long and short-term foreign currency bond ceilings to Baa1 and P-2 respectively, its short term foreign currency deposit ceiling to P-3, and its local currency bond and deposit ceilings to A1.

    On November 1, 2014, during the Ministry of Economic Affairs’ eighth annual lecture series, chairman of Government’s Economic Policy Advisors Committee Sir Frank Alleyne, ALSO admitted, in innuendo, the Medium Term Development Strategy 2010–2014 (MTDS) was a failure, describing it as “almost a replay of 1994.”

    The question is: how many people actually read and understand these reports or dismiss them because they interpret them as not being in favour of their political party.

    The yard-fowls can dismiss Moody’s, Dr. Worrell, Sir Frank or S&P………. but they CAN’T DISMISS THE TRUTH.

  13. David Avatar
    David

    Didn’t BU indicate last week that the government would rubbish CariCRISS’ credit rating.

    https://www.barbadostoday.bb/2017/01/17/not-in-danger/

  14. chad99999 Avatar
    chad99999

    The reaction of the BU crowd to a fall in foreign exchange reserves or a disappointing economic growth forecast should be to discuss economic policy adjustments that might reduce imports, or stimulate increases in growth, etc

    Instead, the focus is on politics and ol’ talk. Rubbishing Sinckler and Worrell — as if every government since independence has not had the same problems. As if currency devaluation has not been a recurring rumour for the last 30 years. As if Mia the aging lawyer has any answers to economic policy problems.

    Very disappointing.

  15. David Avatar
    David

    So why don’t you discuss policy then. Are you not a member of the gang? You are obviously not reading all the comments to post such a generalisation.

  16. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    https://www.barbadostoday.bb/2017/01/18/banks-under-fire-from-credit-unions/

    Credit Unions need to upgrade their services to accomodate these events so that bajans have the option to remove their money from banks and place it all in credit unions, leave the banks to twist in the wind as punishment.

    You do not allow greedy institutions that are guests in your country to gouge and rob you….without fighting back….dont just say how unfair they are, punish them and keep the money on the island, circulating on the island….going forward. ….people are looking for interest on their money, the credit unions can fill that gap…..let the foreign banks go back home….Barbados will lose nothing as a result….and they will not be able to sell your money to anyone.

  17. David Avatar
    David

    @Artax

    Perhaps you should explain the difference between 13 million in debt and what is a deficiet.

    @Caswell and Bushie

    Can you explain that the credit unions are limited under legislation how much money they can lend to an individual? Also they are not part of the clearing banking system. Credit unioms can only deliver full banking services in Barbados if there is changes to the laws governing them.

  18. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    “Credit Unions need to upgrade their services to accomodate these events so that bajans have the option to remove their money from banks and place it all in credit unions, leave the banks to twist in the wind as punishment.”

    I think we have had this same conversation before about 3 years ago…on this same very blog…when the credit unions on the island were talking about transitioning, it was suggested then as it is now that they consider taking on some of the appearances of banks.., to prevent government getting their greedy hands on their customer’s money…..among several other reasons, some if which have now manifested.

    “A current account deficit means the value of imports of goods / services / investment incomes is greater than the value of exports. It is sometimes referred to as a trade deficit.”

    “Deficit spending is the amount by which spending exceeds revenue over a particular period of time, also called simply deficit, or budget deficit; the opposite of budget surplus. The term may be applied to the budget of a government, private company, or individual.”

  19. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    chad99999 January 18, 2017 at 1:40 AM #

    “The reaction of the BU crowd to a fall in foreign exchange reserves or a disappointing economic growth forecast should be to discuss economic policy adjustments that might reduce imports, or stimulate increases in growth, etc…”

    @ chad99999

    For an individual who seems to believe you own the PATENT for intelligence, all your contributions ever contain are CRITICISMS. You never present any feasible alternative solutions or anything that could raise the level of the discussion.

    You missed the opportunity to “raise the ante” by “discussing economic policy adjustments that might reduce imports, or stimulate increases in growth, etc.”

    “Instead, (your) focus is on politics and ol’ talk” presented by the “BU crowd,”

    “Very disappointing.”

    Perhaps you are a “pseudo intellectual.”

  20. lawson Avatar
    lawson

    Trump is great for barbados especially if he backtracks on obamas cuba, keeps the dollar strong along with his commitment to a post brexit britain keeping their pound sound. China will pour more money into barbados etc wanting their votes at the UN to gain more control. things are looking up on the island. The only problem I see on the horizon in barbados is the same one we have in canada how can we attract more guyanese immigrants.

  21. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    Lawson…ya blinked and missed where ya golden boy Trump, sent out one of his stupid tweets yesterday and plunged his own dollar…lol, hahaha, lol…and he ain’t even inaugurated yet,..haha

    Ah told ya Canada is just living on a wing and prayer because of that shaved, orange orangutan.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/donald-trump-us-dolllar-comment-buck-too-strong-two-month-low-japan-yen-president-elect-a7532616.html

    Can Trump be a bigger idiot…to plunge his own dollar during a transition of power.

  22. Artax Avatar
    Artax

    The fiscal deficit is simply the difference between government’s expenditure and revenue earned through taxation, duties, fees, etc, (EXCLUDING loans).

    Debt is basically an accumulation of annual deficits.

  23. lawson Avatar
    lawson

    LOL WW this is how he is going to get everyone in line, one bad tweet and your stock may drop why do you think people are rushing to buy into his make america great again because one good tweet can send them the other way. Look a jacjie evanchos sales since she signed on. Rhiana better sign up soon or she will be back to singing in her birthday suit.

  24. Gregory Vizslawo Avatar
    Gregory Vizslawo

    Chad9999

    The DLP is a slightly peeved that Mia and BLP will not give them sufficient room and time to acclimatise and sensitise the Bajan public to ‘benefits’ of entering into a formal structural adjustment program with the IMF, that’s all. All of a sudden the IMF is the salvation and the DLP is it’s support-in-chief, give me a F’ing break guys.

    By any measure the DLP has been a dismal failure in governing the affairs of the country and the economy. It is only in Barbados, no where else, that a shameless vagabond like the MOF could be such a destructive and debilitating failure while refusing to resign on his honour as Minister of Finance.

    Ask anyone who has a friend in Cabinet if Barbados has not been reduced to the stage where on a regular basis the Prime Minister is cursed and abused by his Cabinet colleagues on a regular basis. He sits and smiles and says ‘Donville don’t be like that’ or ‘David come on man, I am going to look into that’ or ‘Chris, we should discuss this some more before reacting’.

  25. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    @ David
    Can you explain that the credit unions are limited under legislation how much money they can lend to an individual?
    ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    The problem with local credit unions is the lack of visionary leadership. During the period 1985-1995 there was a complete revolution in credit unions, with the movement growing from a ‘meeting-turn’ type operation into multi-million dollar business. Since then, new leadership – moulded of the typical brass bowlery we see in politics, have taken hold – where they milk the movement of perks and privileges, while contributing NOTHING…

    How long now since they have been trying to create a bank? …a supermarket?
    All they managed was to pay ‘consultancy fees’ to big-name jokers – in the same vein as Stinkliar is now doing with sugar.

    Even as it is now, with visionary leadership, they could exploit this situation with interest rates to the benefits of Bajans….. simply by offering better interest rates on shares and deposits and lower loan rates than the banks….. to move large blocks of financing from the banks’ control…. while growing membership (and political/business clout).

    Steupssss….
    But then…we cannot make a silk purses of a sow’s ear….

  26. David Avatar
    David

    @lawson

    Are there not enough US blogs onthe front page to avoid polluting the other blogs? Please desist.

  27. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    My point exactly…, within 5 years foreign banks would be a thing of the past, and bajans would be in control of their financial futures…if ya had any type of leadership, with vision.

    “Even as it is now, with visionary leadership, they could exploit this situation with interest rates to the benefits of Bajans….. simply by offering better interest rates on shares and deposits and lower loan rates than the banks….. to move large blocks of financing from the banks’ control…. while growing membership (and political/business clout).”

    Lawson…let’s take this discussion to the Obama/Trump blog.

  28. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    It’s been months now people I know been thinking of shifting their funds from foreign banks inside and outside of Barbados to credit unions, even those who hold accounts outside because of weakening dollars are divvying up their accounts between countries to prevent a blowback……..but the need incentives to make the move…..the credit unions should make it their business to capture these accounts…dont wait for foreign banks to sell your money to a competing fireign bank when they are sold oe gobbled up.

  29. Pachamama Avatar
    Pachamama

    Bushie

    Your analysis is spot on.

    We happened to be there or thereabouts during that epoch

    We could never understand why Bajans like to think that the older they get the more conservative they must be. We would think the reverse must be true.

    Events afterwards, circa 1995, have been painful for this writer.

    And all of this could have been different if stinking Erskine Sandiford had the courage to divest some or all state assets, during the 1991 period, to the cooperatives. The trajectory would have been different.

    But he alone cannot take all the blame. In the final analysis it is the low-mindedness of the Bajan which insists on mediocrity, submission to authority, which is at fault. People like this are worthy of death.

  30. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    @ Pacha

    It is a curse that we seem to have…
    Even our only real world-class athlete (Oba) recently called for government to take over control of sports administration….
    He means well, because someone SURELY needs to investigate where the $20m dollars provided by the lottery each year goes…. in a country without a stadium or any other basic sports facilities….
    But to revert to government oversight – rather than suggesting that the sportspeople THEMSELVES take control and ask questions and TAKE ACTION…….is typical of bajan brass bowlery.

    $200M invested in ‘sports’ in the last 10 years and not a shiite to show….
    $ ??? Billions invested in the Treasury in the last ten years …and not a shiite to show….
    What has the credit unions got to show in the last 10 years…?

    What did they say about a fool and his money….?

  31. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    Interesting discussion in Davos today, as Legarde et al, tried to define the “middle class”.

  32. NorthernObserver Avatar
    NorthernObserver

    From the Minister in charge of the NIS….”However, while Dr Byer-Suckoo said a detailed update on the state of the NIS and its ability to meet its obligations was yet to come.”

    Like my doctor telling me “the cancer is gone but I cannot show you the medical imaging which conforms that. Trust me.”

  33. Violet C Beckles CUP Avatar
    Violet C Beckles CUP

    no worries Fraud is up and some are living very well on that,

    Just check the the DLP and BLP Parties ,

  34. enuff Avatar
    enuff

    @ Hants

    Isn’t James Edghill associated with the Hyatt project?

  35. chad99999 Avatar
    chad99999

    Who can provide a link (or a reference) to a definitive, granular account of the reasons for, and resolution of, the CLICO meltdown in Trinidad?

    Does anyone have a book out on this?

  36. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    Check the archives at Trinidad Express online newspaper, it gives a play by play of the massive theft at CL Financial, CLICO’s parent company, owned by Lawrence Duprey, all the information can also be googled.

  37. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @Bush Tea January 18, 2017 at 8:12 AM Your writings and reasoning are in a word or two confounding and contradictory. In this piece you give voice to a screaming criticism leveled recently by @Chad45 but also by others who question your acclaim that the credit union ethos is the saving grace for governance.

    Yet here you assert “The problem with local credit unions is the lack of visionary leadership”.

    As far as I know that period circa 1985 was the beginning basically of the evolution of the local CU movement. I recall well the nascent COB…I was either member # six or seven.

    Jesting actually but I was an early adopter.

    By 1995, as I recall, the various unions increased the numbers of their highly educated management talent and moved into swanky new edifices so that suggests that you are calling them out as laggards who started to cream off the top after those early years of meteoric growth and focus.

    So which exactly is it?

    Is the ethos and leadership of the CU a worthy example or is it no more than EXACTLY what prevails in current local government

  38. Anonymouse - The Gazer Avatar
    Anonymouse – The Gazer

    @Bushie
    @Pacha
    Good analysis above.

    Any suggestions on how they will acquire this visionary leadership?
    Where do you place the blame for this deficit –
    The society?
    The education system?
    The structure of the organizations?
    Promotion of the wrong people?
    Where?
    We know the problems. What are the solutions.

  39. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    Let me correct myself…

    IN A PERIOD AROUND 1995 AND THEREAFTER….. the various unions increased the numbers of their highly educated management talent and moved into swanky new edifices

  40. Anonymouse - The Gazer Avatar
    Anonymouse – The Gazer

    AfraRaymond also deals with Trinidadian issues in a very clear and detailed manner. I am certain some of his articles would deal exhaustively with the CLICO matter.

  41. de pedantic Dribbler Avatar
    de pedantic Dribbler

    @chad99999 January 18, 2017 at 5:46 PM …”Who can provide a link (or a reference) to a definitive, granular account of the reasons for, and resolution of, the CLICO meltdown in Trinidad?”

    Can you google Greed and Ponzi? Or ‘DuPrey lavish property purchases in Miami’.

    Couple that with the other suggestions above and you should have lift-off.

    Oh and google Afra Raymond too.

  42. Bush Tea Avatar
    Bush Tea

    @ Dribbler
    …..your acclaim that the credit union ethos is the saving grace for governance.
    Yet here you assert “The problem with local credit unions is the lack of visionary leadership”.
    +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
    ….Sigh !!!
    How are these two positions mutually exclusive?
    How difficult is it to grasp that the a particular PHILOSOPHICAL approach to governance can be relevant, desirable and applicable, while at the same time identifying that in a specific application it is being under-utilised due to lack of vision?

    Wuh Harrison College provided an ideal forum for the development of education…. Pornville and John Boyce both went there – and look how they turned out…

    @ TheGazer
    The talent of ‘Visionary leadership’ tends to reside in a limited number of special persons within each society. Whether we have the wisdom to seek out and use those persons, ….or we instead choose popular, shiite-talkers, who make elaborate promises and offer petty bribes – to fill leadership positions, is a direct measure of the level of brass bowlery in the society.

    A good governance system is vital for the long-term success of a society, but without utilising its best talents, in the right positions, it is unlikely that such success will be realised by any society…even with a good system.
    We need a meritocracy. One that will seek to actively put round pegs in round holes, and square ones in square holes….

    Right now, any shiite goes…..

  43. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    Dupreyy has hotels in Miami, at one time they said he owned a skyscraper, lots of properties, Caribbean policyholders money stolen to give him an extravagant lifestyle….

    …….Leroy Parris was small time compared to Duprey, that was his boss, him and David Thompson stole what they could from bajan policyholders because they knew they could get away with it, they thought it would have been a clean getaway, but it did not quite wprk out as planned.

  44. Well Well & Consequences Avatar
    Well Well & Consequences

    “Wuh Harrison College provided an ideal forum for the development of education…. Pornville and John Boyce both went there – and look how they turned out…”

    Adriel Nitwit also…a real disgrace.

  45. David Avatar
    David

    Many Barbadians are looking forward to the 2016 economic review. The noise in Barbados about devaluation, deficits, debt is not healthy to infuse confidence in the market. The current foreign exchange level will be of interest. Customers still have to go on a list and Guyana has slammed the door on redemption of Barbados dollars.

    Importantly we want an update on the projects in the pipeline. We were told months ago that a sub-committee of Cabinet would have overseen roll out to ensure the kickstart of the economy.

  46. David Avatar
    David


    https://youtu.be/-rnZ6dTT5BY

  47. Violet C Beckles CUP Avatar
    Violet C Beckles CUP

    There is a CREDIT UNION in Barbados alone that have more than 1 Billion in assets, How?
    Land Fraud, they have been taking over old buildings and renting them out, with the FUNDS of the memebers,
    The DBLP can put pressure on the Unions for Help , for the government, Sagicor, CLICO all using the same play-book as Sir Cheltenham and Sir COWilliams

    Every lawyer’s office is a real-estate office for fraud, Banks and other money launders soon will have to do a full internal Audit to see where they really Stand.Even light and Power have a few Problems on the Bay Plantation,

  48. Violet C Beckles CUP Avatar
    Violet C Beckles CUP

    David January 18, 2017 at 7:30 PM #@

    You can never be right when taking the word or talk of crooks, liars and scumbags,Deal with what you see and know , Hearing lies from them and then posting will never work.

    devaluation, deficits, debt are all part and the main causes of all this talking you are doing,
    No Nation can fool other Nations for long with coverup and FRAUD, FRAUD IS A WHITE GAME THE BLACKS IN GOVERNMENT CAN NEVER MASTER.

    WESTERNUNION rate of over 1.99$BDS to one$ USD, When you see that number drop then you and others can talk,
    Devaluation has already happened INSIDE of Barbados for the People inside are getting less for their money.
    They removed the CENT,all things rounded up to the 5CENTS.FUEL, FOOD,GAS,WATER,LIGHTS ALL THINGS WITH CHANGE,

    TALKING OF Devalue is brain-washing, for its to make the people to shut up ,and to be happy for the fraud they are all living,

    Each and every Government in the World have knows that PONZI and Fraud is running Barbados , Its when the people wake up is what they are more worried about.

    The timeline seems to be in time for Elections and they are now looking to sell and spend money to keep themselves in office,
    The more they will spend on elections the more it will cost the People after Elections, If you think this can not get any worse check with Venezslua

  49. Vincent Haynes Avatar
    Vincent Haynes

    Looks like interest exists throughout the Caribbean.

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/350046498526111/permalink/574422679421824/?sale_post_id=574422679421824&rt=11

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