Submitted by Pachamama

Over sixty years ago Eric Williams famously argued that one from 10 leaves naught. His arithmetic formulation has been pregnant with meanings for Caribbean peoples since. Words which continue to ring in the ears of regional peoples for these six decades hence. Now the echo of Williams’ words may to be felt in the centre of the ‘former’ colonial masters. The colonialists who were run out of the Caribbean after an abysmal performance during world war two and the emergence of America as the hyper-power with the CIA as its spearhead in this region.

Within a few days the people of England go to the polls to determine this accidental political issue. We say accidental because it was almost an afterthought by current prime minister David Cameron as a way of getting a wedge issue, an insurance policy, to pry an election from opposition forces.

This does not mean that healthy numbers of British peoples have not had longstanding misgivings about the European Union, NATO and the Eurozone. And not without just cause. From the beginning, ‘hidden government forces’, birthed these alliances to dis-empower the citizens of Britain and empower unelected EU and business interests, at all levels of government. They have been highly successful in concentrating political and economic power into the hands of unelected officials in Brussels. And there maybe more diverse views in Scotland and Wales as based on wider internal political calculations – Scotland more so than Wales, we suspect.

Both the ‘leave’ and the ‘remain’ forces have waged extensive campaigns. In recent days the leave campaign has opened up a 10-point lead in some polls. We will be surprised if the Council of Europe allows a mere public expression by peasants to derail 50 years of strategic supra-national nation building efforts. The orders of magnitude are beyond large. Just a few years ago the Caribbean itself was in a haste to establish an EU of the Caribbean. Now that dissatisfaction is rife all across Europe, from hindsight, our thought leaders would no doubt be having fourth thoughts. We are used to relying on the mis-leadership of Caribbean elites.
The Chancellor of the Exchequer has estimated that Britain will lose 1.5 to 4.5 percent of GDP should the ‘leave’ campaign prevail. London, is indeed, in a life or death struggle to be ‘the leading centre’ for global finance. Indeed, minus the net capital inflows into London, and particularly Canary Wharf, Britain may well be heading backwards. For it can no longer be seen as a fourth generation industrial centre.

His case is quite persuasive especially when one considers that about 45% of British exports go to EU countries. These goods and services will immediate be subject to increased tariffs as coming from a non-EU country. Banking interests particularly, on balance, will face a sleuth of ‘headquartering decision making.’ This decision alone could turn Britain into a third world country unless it goes again on a re-colonizing project.

And there are several other political forces at work. These include the influence of far-right elements, within and without, the conservative party that believes the EU delivers too many immigrants. ‘Commonwealth’ citizens are feeling that they are and are likely to continue to be collateral damage from a distinctively racist discourse which was underground from the 1950’s, but now is in the open.

The immediate efforts of ‘leave’ activists are to stymie the endless flow of people from eastern European countries. Certainly, the foreign policy of Cameron ‘s government in relation to the ‘Middle East’ continues to deliver a steady flow of migrants, of a hue, likely to put a tad too much coffee into the British milk.

The British hate the idea of handing over 15 billion pounds annually to European bureaucrats. They see themselves as having to carry the paupers of the EU – the eastern European countries, the southern Europeans – Greece, maybe Spain and Italy are to be added soon. They feel outmanoeuvred by the Germans, the high tech industrial base of Europe and thus its increasing relative power regionally, globally.

There are some who are forecasting a total collapse of the EU project starting with a ‘leave’ vote in Britain. This maybe be possible but unlikely. Surely the project has entered unchartered waters. Extreme pressures are getting to the point of unsustainability. Surely, when the defense arm of the alliance, NATO, as America’s boy scouts could be made to threaten Russia with the current war games of 30,000 troops, on Russia’s western borders and on the anniversary of Operation Barbarossa, suggests that those in Washington may yet have some ‘useful’ purpose/s for they ‘united’ colonial possessions in North-western Asia (EU). Military considerations point to unity to fight a perceived enemy, as primary consideration.

On June 23, 2016 the people of Britain have two choices – ‘yes’ or ‘no’. We would like to suggest a third option. We contend that if the people vote yes, their vote will be ignored for years as terms for a Brexit are negotiated. During this window the potency of that vote will weaken as the establishment and business interests seek to re-interpret the intent of the people. Of course a ‘no’ vote will re-impose the position ante, will be a vote for the bankers, the unelected officials and so on. We however, suggest that the ‘yes’ will prevail if a fair election could be had. So we judge that one from 28 will still be 28.

Again the Caribbean, in the person of Fruendel Stuart, would have benefited David Cameron as to how expressions of the people in ‘elections’ could be easily misinterpreted. In the same way Stuart did not give us a national unity government then, Cameron will never accede to popular demands to leave the EU, neither now nor never! In both cases we will witness the most sophisticated impositions of private interests ahead of popular demands.