Understanding the National Insurance Scheme of Barbados (2) – Risks and issues
David September 13, 2015 at 5:07 AM # @Walter Do you want to comment on Minister Denis Kellman’s Facebook status? Where ever you go, in Barbados you will hear the bright classroom students saying “do not mind the MP for St Lucy, he is also talking foolishness.” […]When the BLP decided to increase the pensionable…
Do you want to comment on Minister Denis Kellman’s Facebook status?
Where ever you go, in Barbados you will hear the bright classroom students saying “do not mind the MP for St Lucy, he is also talking foolishness.” […]When the BLP decided to increase the pensionable age and the rates i spoke out against them, explaining what would have happened.
I warned them that it would have caused the young people not to receive work at their most productive age and also it would increase the cost to employers decreasing employment. Also what occurred is that while the NIS was building reserves the country and the businesses were recording losses and down grades. it occurred because of bad advice from the actuary, causing the NIS Boards to rape the economy using a policy of their own Government. NIS then turned around and told the Government, we did not beg you to give us the reserves and if you want to borrow you have to pay us higher than what we can receive on open market, depriving Government of its credit rating, and having cash. They had no better opportunity to invest, but they bled the Government without caring that they are all part of the Government.
David,
When it comes to the National Insurance Scheme (NIS) of Barbados, the actuary has to make assumptions about fertility rates, population growth rates, longevity rates, rates of return on investments, rates of inflation, and rates of increase in the NIS insurable earnings ceiling to determine the level of contributions needed to fund the benefits promised by the scheme, and to cover its administrative expenses.
Through the use of actuarial principles, and demographic and economic assumptions, the actuary is able to identify risks and issues emerging within the NIS. He communicates these risks and issues to the NIS Board, along with appropriate advice and recommended solutions.
Mr. Kellman has asserted that Barbadian businesses recorded losses, and the Barbados Government was deprived of its credit rating and cash “because of bad advice from the actuary.” Bluntly put, this assertion is a lie. A casual observer might dismiss the outpourings of Mr. Kellman as a meaningless, rambling political diatribe, but embedded in his tirade is a very poisonous kite-flying pill.
The Minister of Finance has been granted the power to decide how NIS funds are invested. The survival of the NIS therefore requires the presence of a Minister of Finance who is knowledgeable, prudent, and competent, and who appreciates the necessity to safeguard workers’ contributions from political abuse. Our Ministers of Finance have consistently raided, and still continue to raid, our NIS contributions. Right now, Government is feasting financially upon the NIS. Remember the millions of NIS money literally thrown away on restarting the Four Seasons Project? That money is gone. What do we have to show for it? Who do you think will repay it?
In about six years, the contributions to the NIS will not be enough to cover total expenditure, so investments would have to be liquidated. From that point on, the Government would have to start considering the idea of repaying the NIS fund. If, at that point, the Government has little or no money, it will angrily accuse the NIS of trying to bleed “the Government without caring that they are all part of the Government.” The wicket for this argument is now being rolled by Mr. Kellman.
To give readers an idea of the sort of discussion we should be having about the NIS, I will highlight what I believe to be three major “risks and issues” identified by the actuary over the past fifteen years.
1. At the end of the pension reform exercise, the Owen Arthur administration legislated NIS contribution rates that were higher than what was required to provide the benefits promised by the scheme, and to cover administrative expenses. By deliberately injecting some “extra reserves” into the NIS funding mechanism, the administration sent the signal that it expected the NIS to be adequately funded for a long time, and it did not want to go through another pension reform exercise again in the near future.
The actuary suggested that some of the “extra reserves” could be used to provide a survivor’s benefit in those situations where couples were each receiving an NIS benefit. This suggestion was aimed at solving an extremely difficult problem faced by many NIS pensioners when their spouse (also receiving an NIS pension) dies.
Let me explain this problem by way of example.
Beryl, age 72, receives a monthly cheque of $401 from the NIS. Her Husband, Dolphus (age 75) receives a monthly NIS cheque of $800. Their total household income is $1,201 per month.
Dolphus dies suddenly.
Half of Dolphus’ pension = $400. Beryl’s pension = $401. The NIS will now pay Beryl the higher amount of these two numbers as a monthly pension, which is $401.
As a result of Dolphus’ death, Beryl’s household income has plunged from $1,201 to $401. Two-thirds of her household income has been wiped out! This is a real and serious financial problem faced by elderly NIS pensioners.
Recognizing the importance of the suggestion made by the actuary, I booked a flight from Atlanta, Ga and traveled to Barbados in 2009. I met with Dr. David Estwick, the Minister responsible for NIS at the time, and Mr. Best, his Permanent Secretary. I also met with Dr. Justin Robinson, Deputy Chairman of the NIS. Finally, I met with Mr. Jepter Ince, the Chairman of the NIS, in 2010.
I explained the problem to each and every one of these gentlemen and recommended that the cost of an NIS 60% survivor’s benefit (similar to the 60% survivor benefit enshrined in our pension legislation) be looked at, calculated, and funded by the NIS.
Here is how the 60% survivor’s benefit would help Beryl, in our example.
Beryl has now lost only 26.6 % of her household income as a result of Dolphus’ death. This is a much more palatable situation, financially speaking.
Dr. Estwick showed some interest in the idea, but he was relieved of his responsibility for NIS soon after my visit. Dr. Robinson, and Mr. Ince, showed neither interest nor enthusiasm. Thus, a piece of good advice offered by the actuary, picked up by me and carried baton-like to the policymakers, remained unheeded, and untouched.
2. For the NIS to remain solvent and meet its obligations as they fall due, there must be an adequate amount of trust funds on hand at all times. To achieve this objective, contributions paid by employers and workers ought to be prudently invested. The Government of Barbados had a great opportunity to invest the NIS contributions paid by Barbadian Baby Boomers over the last 48 years in long term non-governmental investments. If these long term investments had yielded a rate of return of 4%, for example, the NIS pension trust fund would now have almost 3 times the amount of the total contributions that were put into it.
Alas, ignorance and political incompetence ensured that the NIS of Barbados suffered the worst possible fate that could befall the pension trust fund. Successive short-sighted Ministers of Finance have “borrowed” the NIS physical cash and have now left the NIS holding a “bag” of extremely risky treasury bills, notes, and Government bonds.
This reckless attitude towards the handling of NIS contributors’ money simply reflected what was taking place in the national economy where similar treatment was being meted out to taxpayers’ money. Over the past 35 years, Government spending soared, productivity plummeted as civil service offices became bloated with political cronies, government debt escalated out of control, taxation rates skyrocketed, government revenue fell, the fiscal deficit widened, the Central Bank printed money, bonds issued by the Government of Barbados became branded with “junk” status, and finally, the Government ended up unable to pay Barbadian taxpayers their refunds.
The great difficulty being experienced by the Government of Barbados, when it comes to payment of its debt, has now become painfully obvious to every citizen. The Government has now evolved into being a serious risk to the financial health of its creditors, and one of its biggest creditors is the NIS.
From as far back as the Owen Arthur administration, the actuary had identified this risk posed to the NIS fund by the high levels of contributions that were being borrowed by the Government. After the pension reform exercise, Owen Arthur raised the NIS contribution rates on one hand, and immediately started to eat into the increased cash flow on the other, by increasing government’s borrowings from the fund.
At the end of 2008, the actuary instructed the NIS Board to limit the level of government borrowing to the 57% of the total fund, which was already reached. The actuary further recommended that new avenues of investment should be pursued, in both local and foreign markets.
Rather than paying attention to the good advice offered to them by the actuary, the Owen Arthur, David Thompson, and Freundel Stuart administrations, as usual, made a worse situation worst through their relentless, ill-advised, misdirected use of NIS contributions.
3. In one of his reports, covering a period under the Owen Arthur administration, the actuary noted the unusually large sums of money that were spent on Information Technology (IT). He expressed the hope that this high level of IT expenditure would be justified in future years by creating a higher level of efficiency in the administration of the NIS.
Instead of seeing evidence of enhanced efficiency at the NIS, Barbadians are experiencing frustration and anger over the quality of service being delivered by the NIS. Every single major issue that has boiled over into the public domain, according to the management of the NIS, has been caused by “the computer.”
Has that large amount of money spent on IT, under the nose of Owen Arthur, delivered the desired results? Has the system worked? Has it been replaced? Blended with another one? Has the money been completely wasted?
Soon after assuming office, Dr. David Estwick informed Barbadians that the NIS was being used by the Arthur administration as an ATM.
Senator Andre Worrell, not having the foggiest idea as to what he was talking about, declared in the senate that the NIS “is being well-managed”.
Senator Reggie Hunte, forever looking at the world through parasitic eyes, boldly insinuated in the senate that the past administrations kicked around the NIS like a football so now it’s the current administration’s turn.
Senator Darcy Boyce evidently lacks the talent and ability needed to effectively communicate government’s energy and fiscal policy to the public. Astounded and perplexed onlookers are now shaking their heads in disbelief over the idea of Senator Boyce’s signature appearing on contractual documents related to the Cahill WTE project. In the face of a deafening cry from Barbadians for answers, Senator Boyce has chosen to remain steadfastly silent. Yet, Senator Boyce unashamedly appeared in the national media recently trying to convince Barbadians that the Government’s borrowing of NIS funds is a very good thing for the country, and ought to be encouraged. This argument by Senator Boyce directly opposes the recommendation made by the actuary.
The Minister responsible for NIS, Dr. Esther Byer-Suckoo, appeared in the press recently stressing that the NIS is being well-managed and that the NIS fund is strong. Pray tell me, how can a fund be possibly strong if the majority of its investments is made up of “weak”, “risky”, Government “junk” debt?
These utterances by politicians and political pretenders all serve to tell us one thing – the political class intends to raid the NIS until practically every cent is gone. To date, no objection over the treatment of our NIS contributions by the Government has come from the Barbados Employer’s Confederation, the NUPW, or the BWU. Mind you, all of these organizations have representatives on the NIS Board.
Mr. Joseph Goddard, a long standing representative of the NUPW on the NIS Board, ended up accepting a diplomatic posting from the government.
Mr. Tony Marshall, former Chairman of the NIS, ended up accepting a diplomatic posting from the government.
Sir Leroy Trotman, according to the poor-man’s news agency (better known as rumour), is anxiously waiting to receive his.
Minister Kellman, whose ministerial portfolio is housing by the way, seems to be hinting that the destruction of the NIS fund is now seriously underway, and the actuary, the NIS itself, and the BLP have already been identified as the scapegoats.
Here is Kellman’s response, he is prepared to debate only on his FBpage.
Comments
David King Here is Walter’s response to you if you are scared to venture into BU.
David,
As Bush Tea said, this is a case of a monkey playing with a gun.
The chart (from the CIA?) that Mr. Kellman posted shows clearly what everyone in Barbados already knows – the population of Barbados is ageing.
An ageing population creates complex problems that call for effective solutions from policymakers.
For example, health care costs in Barbados will escalate from here onwards. The real pressure has not been applied yet, and the QEH seems to be already broke.
NIS pensions will have to be paid to an increasing large number of pensioners but Government has used up most of the cash. How will the policymakers get back that cash in time to make sure these pensioners receive their promised benefits?
Civil servants will be retiring in droves every year. Where is their pension money coming from?
Barbadians are expected to live longer in retirement.
Therefore these problems are not only going to be severe, they are going to persist for a long time.
Mr. Kellman needs to get up off his pathetic backside and carry some ideas to the Cabinet of Barbados. The same way that he can brag on his facebook page that he offered expertise to Owen Arthur in the past, why can’t he post what expertise he has offered PM Freudel Stuart in the present?
Denis Kellman Somebody should tell you all , if i wanted to be wicked i would take this statement "Civil servants will be retiring in droves every year…" Is walter saying that the actuary is more interested in a too few than the country? What he has admitted that instead of National insurance paying pensions , that the Government increased its deficit.
Denis Kellman i am no actuary , but i know they are better o[ptions of financing NIS than bleeding the country in present to protect the future. You all are telling me not to feed myself , but to buy a coffin, by paying the undertaker instead of eating.
Denis Kellman Walter this one case fit all , cannot work in this age anymore. it is like applying the phillip’s curve to deal with modern day unemployment.
David King Suit yourself Minister, the world has moved on.
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Walter Blackman
David September 19, 2015 at 8:24 PM #
@Walter
“All the more reason we need Chairman Dr. Robinson to send us a signal on the status of the NIS financials AND the NIS website”
David,
There are much more problems at the NIS than what you are mentioning. Please allow me the opportunity to quote from the actuary (14th Actuarial Review). The emphasis highlighted by the use of CAPITALS is my doing:
” The LEVEL OF SERVICE and AVAILABILITY OF RELIABLE INFORMATION remain challenges” Page 14
“Given the significant investment made in an IT system several years ago, the National Insurance Office UNDERPERFORMS what would reasonably be expected in delivering timely benefit adjudication.” Page 35
“OBTAINING COMPLETE AND RELIABLE DATA from the National Insurance Office is also a concern.” Page 35
“The Board is encouraged to engage the Minister and other relevant government officials in discussions aimed at identifying ways of ensuring the National Insurance Office could be more effective in the delivery of its services and FULFILLING ITS STATUTORY OBLIGATIONS.” Page 35.
” INADEQUATE STAFFING of the National Insurance Office, ……EXTENSIVE DELAYS IN CONDUCTING FINANCIAL AUDITS, and DELAYS IN PUBLISHING ANNUAL REPORTS are issues with which the National Insurance Office has been plagued.” Page 50.
You and I have sought on BU to do some of the Board’s work by at least trying to engage “the Minister and other relevant government officials” in discussions about the NIS. Unfortunately our efforts attracted Mr. Kellman, who has wasted our precious time.
You are being harsh with the minister who expects a little loyalty from you because he said that he supported you in the Mutual Assurance affair.
Please make the actuarial review a document of the house.
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Simple Simon
@Denis Kellman i am no actuary , but i know they are better options of financing NIS than bleeding the country in present to protect the future. You all are telling me not to feed myself , but to buy a coffin, by paying the undertaker instead of eating.
But the old people used to say that “you should never eat the calf out of the cow’s belly.”
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Walter Blackman
David,
Actually, I am being kind and helpful to the minister. I have spent a lot of time trying to make sure he understands some of the NIS issues that he needs to take to Cabinet and the House of Assembly. He also needs to go out in his constituency and get some feedback on how NIS pensioners in St. Lucy feel about getting 50% or 60% of their spouse’s NIS benefit when death strikes, rather than scorning the idea out of hand. Given the results of the last election, I am sure that he could do with some extra votes coming from the elderly. If he doesn’t, his political opponent does.
Despite my efforts, I must admit that the minister still seems not to understand what the NIS is all about. There is always hope.
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Simple Simon
@Walter Blackman September 19, 2015 at 7:07 PM “Beryl’s friend Priscilla, age 52, has been “living with” Frank, age 68, for 4 years. Priscilla never worked, so she never contributed a cent to NIS. Frank’s NIS pension is $1200 per month. Beryl and Priscilla enjoy household income of roughly $1200 per month whilst their “spouses” are alive.
Frank dies. Priscilla, who never contributed to NIS, gets $600 per month from age 52. That is, she gets 50% of her deceased “spouse’s” benefit.”
Of course if I were running the NIS I would not give Priscilla a benefit at all starting at age 52. She would have to wait until she was at least 60 before claiming ANY benefit, since a worker who began working and contributing to NIS at age 16 must work until age 60 that is for 44 years before claiming a pension benefit. Even so if this worker claims her benefit this year when the retirement age is 66 1/2 she will have to take a 39% reduction in her benefits, since NIS pensions are reduced by 6% per year for every year before the full retirement age, currently 66 1/2.
I have always felt that marriage is too highly privileged by governments. There is no reason a widow and widower who have never contributed to NIS should receive an earlier benefit and a higher benefit than someone who has worked and contributed for 40+ years.
If I were managing NIS I would increase the privileges for those who are raising children [that is those who producing and raising the next generation of NIS contributors] and sharply reduce the privileges available to widows and widowers who have not and are not raising children.
On second thoughts to avoid immediate and excessive hardship I would maybe pay Priscilla a benefit for one year, so that she can get on her feet. At the end of that year Priscilla would have to find work or another man willing to support her.
Therefore under my NIS widows and widowers younger than 60 and without dependent children would get minimal assistance for a year or so then they would have to find paid work or another partner who is willing to support them.
But I agree this is a conversation we [Bajans] must have.
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Walter Blackman
Simple Simon September 20, 2015 at 1:39 AM #
“Of course if I were running the NIS I would not give Priscilla a benefit at all starting at age 52. She would have to wait until she was at least 60 before claiming ANY benefit….”
Of course, that is not the law. Once her “qualified” spouse died, Priscilla is eligible to get a monthly benefit as early as age 45. Once she starts receiving a benefit between ages 45 and 50, she would get 33 1/3%, rather than 50% of her spouse’s benefit.
“If I were managing NIS I would increase the privileges for those who are raising children [that is those who producing and raising the next generation of NIS contributors] and sharply reduce the privileges available to widows and widowers who have not and are not raising children.”
Priscilla’s children (up to a maximum of 3 at anytime) would receive 16 2/3% of her spouse’s benefit until they reach age 16, or age 25 (if in school full-time)
“On second thoughts to avoid immediate and excessive hardship I would maybe pay Priscilla a benefit for one year, so that she can get on her feet. At the end of that year Priscilla would have to find work or another man willing to support her.”
If Priscilla were under age 45, she would receive a benefit for one year.
NIS is a social insurance programme and places emphasis on social adequacy. Private pensions place emphasis on individual fairness.
It is clear there is a philosophical difference between Kellman and you about investment decisions being taken. The bottomline is that in a low yield environment bold decisions must be taken to protect the yield of the fund. With a significant percentage of the fund invested in government paper we have a problem as far as the viability of the fund. Since the actuarial review the economy has further contracted, this does not portend well for many of us anticipating to make pension calls in the future.
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Bush Tea
The very fact that a blusterous, long-serving MP should even think that the management of a National Insurance /pension fund is firstly a matter of ‘common sense’ should be enough to indicate our dire situation.
It is clear to Bushie that these second-rate jokers are making decisions based on ‘how much money in the bank’…. the concept of LIABILITIES clearly elude them…
…as in, “we have $1BILLION in foreign reserves …. let us buy a new sugar factory, a waste-to-energy plant, a new hospital, polyclinic, new police stations, Water works building …and some new BMWs… NEVER MIND WE OWE $3BILLION TO STRANGERS…
Remember, Bushie could lend Caswell a million today, which he could put in the bank and have a nice looking ‘account’….. If he then goes off and buys a big house, big car, and spend on some ‘young thing’… “because his bank balance ” looks good ….
..Wuh he must know that Bushie will shortly be at his door with a bull pistle….
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Bush Tea
@ David
“….With a significant percentage of the fund invested in government paper …”
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
It is terminologies such as these that confuse people like Kellman.
Investing NIS funds in ‘government paper’ is like withdrawing money from your savings account; to lend yourself; to buy shiite; with the promise to yourself that you are good for it.
To cover your tracks, you write IOUs for the amounts withdrawn and assign the value of these IOU (in this case I-O-‘Me’s) to your imaginary account. This allows your auditor to ‘balance the book’ and keeps your family members at bay…on the foolish premise that there is this ‘I-O-me’ asset on the books.
…family members don’t really complain too much anyway, since they enjoy the BMWs, bling and other shiite crumbs on which you are spending their savings…
Long term fund management is an area for specialists and actuarial experts who actually understand the intricacies of such schemes…. not for shiite talkers… or simple simons
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Walter Blackman
David September 20, 2015 at 7:39 AM #
@Walter
“It is clear there is a philosophical difference between Kellman and you about investment decisions being taken. The bottomline is that in a low yield environment bold decisions must be taken to protect the yield of the fund.”
David,
No new NIS investments have been made overseas since 2009 because of restrictions imposed by the Central Bank of Barbados. Yet the value of the foreign investments in the NIS fund increased by nearly 50%.
You need to explain, as if to a dunce, your last comment.
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Correct is Right
@ Walter
The below excerpt is from Standard & Poor’s recent assessment of the Barbados economy. You should note, with interest, the rating agency’s analysis of government’s continual reliance on NIS funds to finance the deficit.
Standard & Poor’s Rating Services:
Barbados ‘B/B’ Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative:
14-Sep-2015 17:28 EDT
OVERVIEW
Barbados’ fiscal deficits remain high, and its debt burden continues to rise, with limited financing options. We expect GDP growth of about 1% this year and 2% in 2016, still lower than that of peers at a similar stage of economic development. We are affirming our ‘B/B’ sovereign credit ratings on Barbados. The negative outlook reflects the potential for a downgrade pending additional signs of success in gradually stabilizing the debt burden, if tourism investment projects fail to support a turnaround in growth, or if external pressures mount.
RATING ACTION
On Sept. 14, 2015, Standard & Poor’s Ratings Services affirmed its ‘B’ long-term sovereign credit ratings on Barbados. The outlook remains negative. We also affirmed our ‘B’ short-term sovereign credit ratings. The transfer and convertibility (T&C) assessment is unchanged at ‘B’.
RATIONALE
Large fiscal deficits, a high debt burden that continues to rise, and narrower financing options constrain Standard & Poor’s ratings on Barbados. Financing the government deficit continues to rely on official and central bank funding given a reduced appetite in both local and external capital markets. The government did, however, issue a small amount of savings bonds in the local market in June 2015. THE NATIONAL INSURANCE SCHEME (NIS) IS LESS ABLE TO FINANCE THE GOVERNMENT THAN IN THE PAST BECAUSE OF ITS DECLINING SURPLUSES. Financing from local banks is increasingly based on shorter tenors and higher interest rates. The last government issuance in global capital markets was in 2013.
Perhaps Mr. Kellman would also care to share his views on S & P’s assessment. However, Kellman is not known for his modesty or to deny that he is an authority on EVERYTHING, will obviously dismiss the rating agency.
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Walter Blackman
David September 20, 2015 at 10:30 AM #
@Walter
“You need to explain, as if to a dunce, your last comment”
David,
My apologies. I left the reference to 50% hanging loosely.
At the end of 2008, the value of foreign investments held by the NIS amounted to $107.2 million. Not much more additional foreign investments were made because of Central Bank’s restrictions imposed in 2009.
At the end of 2011, the value of foreign investments held by the NIS amounted to $158.8 million. Between 2008 and 2011, therefore, the value of NIS foreign investments increased by 48%. The growth in value was generated primarily by investment returns.
Here we have an investment situation at the NIS that called for greater amounts of funds to be invested overseas, but no investments could be made because the country’s foreign exchange reserves were too low.
This shows the interplay of financial forces that exist between the needs of the NIS and the needs of the national economy. Ideally, we want these forces to be going in the same direction, not opposing each other. For example, creative and successful policies aimed at earning foreign exchange would increase our reserves, which in turn would allow the NIS to make more foreign investments, the investment income from which will boost our foreign exchange reserves even further.
There is a comfort level in Barbados to glorify growth in the retail/distributive sector. Examples are there in Cost-U-Less, Berger King, Ashley etc. There is a mindset change we need to undergo as a country. Look at the composition of Boards where you must have the lawyer, banker etc.
The government is in a ticklish position with one eye on the forex and the other on inherent risk investing in volatile markets overseas.
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Walter Blackman
Correct is Right September 20, 2015 at 10:37 AM #
@ Walter
The below excerpt is from Standard & Poor’s recent assessment of the Barbados economy. You should note, with interest, the rating agency’s analysis of government’s continual reliance on NIS funds to finance the deficit.
Standard & Poor’s Rating Services:
Barbados ‘B/B’ Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Negative:
14-Sep-2015 17:28 EDT
OVERVIEW
Barbados’ fiscal deficits remain high, and its debt burden continues to rise, with limited financing options.
Correct is Right,
“Limited financing options” means that the government has very little taxing, borrowing, or begging room left. They have gobbled up almost every cent available to them on the local and foreign capital markets. They have publicly begged and pleaded with the philanthropists to open up their wallets.They are currently going after the cash held by Barbadian individual investors now, and giving them bonds .
The mouthings of Ministers and political underlings have revealed that they have their eyes on the NIS funds. The NIS fund is $3.7 billion. Government has already borrowed $2.2 billion. My instincts tell me that they are going after the remaining $1.5 billion, KNOWING FULL WELL THAT THEY DON’T HAVE THE ABILITY TO REPAY NIS ITS MONEY!
Financially speaking, the government’s back is against the wall and they are seeing NIS funds as low hanging fruit.
Among the following words from Mr. Kellman, you can detect a strong sense of determination to raid the NIS fully:
“but i know they are better o[ptions of financing NIS than BLEEDING THE COUNTRY IN PRESENT TO PROTECT THE FUTURE. You all are telling me not to feed myself , but to buy a coffin, by paying the undertaker instead of eating.”
We have absolutely no one to defend the NIS and our pensions but ourselves. Can we do it?
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Walter Blackman
David September 20, 2015 at 11:36 AM #
“The government is in a ticklish position with one eye on the forex and the other on inherent risk investing in volatile markets overseas”
David,
The government wished its position was “ticklish”. In reality, its position is excruciatingly painful. Some of the pain was inherited, some was self-inflicted.
Within overseas markets, you can structure the NIS portfolio to reflect the desired level of risk tolerance, and the level of volatility of returns (e.g. volatility of returns would tend to be higher with stocks, lower with fixed income investments. You can blend these and use some hedging strategies to suit your investment objective).
I take your point, though. In the final analysis, you are investing, so there will always be an element of risk which the government can’t casually overlook.
The minister’s latest comment signals the NIS Fund is a big blip on the radar😳
Denis Kellman Your views on how a whole country should starve , while having reserves and downgrades are interesting . No wonder Singapore have done so well. We do not know how to create work through investments and how to grow the funds for NIS. The believe that NIS should not help with its success and that job creation and investments are not part of their mandate is why the rating agencies are having a field day on Barbados. While you keep young and bright people unemployed while discussing the reserves being held by NIS, I am thinking of how to create economic activity to help the fund to help in its maximization , along with building the economy , employing more persons for it to receive 21.35% of each new insurable dollar. NIS earns its money from working people and must appreciate that it is in its interest to protect and increase the workforce to enhance its self. NIS is the greatest beneficiary , plus half of the reserves are paid by the employers of Barbados.
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Walter Blackman
David September 20, 2015 at 11:36 AM #
“There is a comfort level in Barbados to glorify growth in the retail/distributive sector.”
David,
With the thrust towards global commerce, and the ability of the buyer to connect directly with the manufacturer of a product or the provider of a service, the middleman (retailer/distributor) is going to get squeezed hard.
That maybe so Walter but in Barbados we have the hegemonist in TnT’s Massy that leads to different challenge for Barbados.
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Walter Blackman
“The belief that NIS should not help with its success and that job creation and investments are not part of their mandate is why the rating agencies are having a field day on Barbados. While you keep young and bright people unemployed while discussing the reserves being held by NIS, I am thinking of how to create economic activity to help the fund to help in its maximization , along with building the economy………..”
Denis Kellman
Well, well, well. When politicians have their eyes on taxpayers’ money, they don’t care how stupid and flimsy their arguments are.
Just a moon or two ago, when the difficulties being faced by the economy were on Barbadians’ minds, we were chastised and reminded by the likes of Denis Kellman that the government was interested in building a society.
Now we have a situation where commonsense, not education, tells us that we must stand up and defend the NIS benefits that a society has already paid for – benefits that are very valuable to the same society – we are being chastised and reminded by the likes of Denis Kellman that the government is interested in building the economy.
Whatever gave politicians the right to believe that we, as a people, are as stupid as they are?
Will put up the document later, we need a national conversation started on the NIS Fund again. Let us see if we can persuade Roy, Kaymar et al to ask some question.
The issue you raised about inability to invest outside to dilute local concentration makes the decision to divest EMERA shares a bit of a idiotic decision. Yet Marshall was rewarded with a cushy NY post.
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Walter Blackman
David September 20, 2015 at 12:48 PM #
“That maybe so Walter but in Barbados we have the hegemonist in TnT’s Massy that leads to different challenge for Barbados.”
David,
You are worrying too much.
Let us assume we have a food import bill of $1 billion dollars that is eating into our FOREX.
Suppose we create, by government policy, a national objective aimed at protecting that FOREX.
To achieve this objective, we can decide to identify Barbadian shippers in the USA, Canada, Europe, and Africa. We would label them “preferred partners” and their role is to efficiently ship barrels and boxes of goods including clothing and foodstuff, already paid for by Barbadians living overseas, to Barbados. We can negotiate a shipping rate and channel overseas Barbadian towards their services.
We can set up a system to ensure that the barrels and boxes do not contain guns, drugs, dangerous chemicals, or explosives (is there technology to do this?). Anything else is fair game.
When the barrels and boxes arrive in Barbados, the focus is placed on moving these through the port as quickly and efficiently as possible. There is no tax involved, and no limit is placed on the amount of barrels earmarked for any individual.
We don’t care how many bottles of whiskey or brandy, microwave ovens, computers, ipads, shoes, dresses, pants, tins of salmon etc are in the barrels. Every Barbadian has the right to enjoy this privilege.
Those individuals who have enough goods that have been paid for already overseas who want to “set up shop” will be encouraged to do so. They will be specially licensed, and the license will cost, say $1000 per year. They and their workers, for NIS purposes, would be treated as earning, say $300 per week. That means that the employer will pay $46.50 each week to the NIS for each worker. There will be no income tax on this activity. Every Barbadian would have the right to enjoy this privilege.
A policy like this would definitely hurt retailers. However we don’t have much “skin” in the retail/distributive game. We can consult Bynoe, Goddards, Simpson, and a few others to see how they can share the reduced market , but considerations about Massy should not be uppermost in our minds. We never promised Massy that the exploitative, price gouging retail system that we currently have will last forever.
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Walter Blackman
David September 20, 2015 at 2:22 PM #
@Walter
“The issue you raised about inability to invest outside to dilute local concentration makes the decision to divest EMERA shares a bit of a idiotic decision. Yet Marshall was rewarded with a cushy NY post.”
David,
We don’t know for sure that Marshall got a cushy NY post because of a decision made to divest EMERA shares.
I am going to play the devil’s advocate here.
Suppose Mr. Marshall stubbornly defended the NIS fund and as a result constantly locked horns with the Minister every time a raid was attempted?
Suppose offering him a cushy job was one method of getting him out of the way, so that another individual – more submissive, malleable, and obedient- could be installed in the chairman’s chair?
@Walter Blackman September 20, 2015 at 3:01 AM “Of course, that is not the law. Once her “qualified” spouse died, Priscilla is eligible to get a monthly benefit as early as age 45. Once she starts receiving a benefit between ages 45 and 50, she would get 33 1/3%, rather than 50% of her spouse’s benefit.”
Then we should change the law.
My argument is that we should not be paying any pension at all to widows/widowers who are younger than 60 and who have no dependent children. People in that age group should reasonably to expected to work for their own living.
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Bush Tea
@ Simple Simon
My argument is that we should not be paying any pension at all to widows/widowers who are younger than 60
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Just because you never had a real man, …Bushie will forgive you for your ignorance… the lotta ‘EX-men’ yuh have don’t count here…
When two people get married, and form a partnership, in what is considered to be an ideally suited arrangement to produce well rounded children for future generations – such is considered to be a SOCIAL IDEAL by an enlightened society.
A partner who therefore performs the role of ‘home manager’ in such a relationship plays as important (if not more important) a role in its success as the one who goes out seeking FOREX.
If the breadwinner should unfortunately die early, it is absolutely reasonable that an insurance scheme to which THAT PARTNERSHIP has been subscribing, continues to support the remaining half of the partnership in a reasonable way.
…what ‘go out and look for what wuk’ what??!!! … lotta shiite!
The partnership was ‘insured’ precisely to ‘look after’ a surviving member.
PdP: Extend NIS benefits to one year
As Barbados wades through uncharted waters with an estimated 40 per cent unemployment due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the Opposition People’s Party for Democracy and Development (PdP) is calling on Government to increase unemployment benefits from six months to a year.
The party is also calling for Government to abandon pursuit of its recently renegotiated one per cent primary fiscal surplus in favour of a deficit, a move which runs counter to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) approved Barbados Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) programme.
In fact, the Opposition is calling for a complete rethink of the BERT programme, contending that it now goes against the grain of the base needs of Barbadians.
The PdP is also calling on the ruling administration to “reset” the economy by forgiving public debt owed by citizens and businesses.
Speaking at a press conference at the Opposition’s office at Parliament, at Worthing, Christ Church, Senator Crystal Drakes warned that unless measures were taken immediately to stem the social fallout, Barbados could quickly move from an “unemployment crisis” to a “poverty crisis.”
She argued that of 33 000 claims processed by the National Insurance Scheme, a significant portion was a result of hotel closures, from a sector not likely to return to its full capacity until well into 2021.
Drakes explained that with uncertainty looming over the pending $300 million severance debt to employees as well as the fact that unemployment benefits were on the verge of ending for many, Government could have a calamitous social fallout on its hands.
“Barbados is now faced with an unemployment crisis. Of the unemployment claims, 31 per cent came from the tourism related industries and this is critical because the tourism sector we know will not resume to full capacity within the next six to nine months as travel restrictions and health protocols restrict the capacity of restaurants and hotels.
Unemployment crisis
“What we are faced with is a significant reduction in people’s standard of living over an extended period of time once NIS unemployment benefits cease for many people in the coming weeks. Government has to make sure that the unemployment crisis does not mushroom into a poverty crisis. The most recent [Inter-American] Development Bank report on the impact of COVID-19 on Caribbean economies states that the Government of Barbados must expand its social protection programmes to curb the potential increase in poverty,” she added. To place the current situation into context, Drakes explained that after the financial crisis of 2008, unemployment increased from eight per cent to ten per cent and for 12 years, Barbados has not recovered from the fallout. She therefore argued that with a conservative estimate of 40 per cent unemployment, there was no telling how long things would take to return to pre-COVID-19 job numbers. In her analysis, Drakes noted that as households and firms come under further strain and pressure, the Mia Amor Mottley administration must find breathing room in its
macro-economic targets to allow people to survive. “Meeting a primary surplus while people cannot afford food and cannot meet their basic needs will be an exercise in futility. The purpose of going through an austerity programme such as the BERT and an IMF [Extended Fund Facility] is to allow Government to get its fiscal house in order to improve its citizens well-being. COVID 19 has completely changed the social and economic landscape and Government has to undertake significant economic adjustment to respond to the current needs of people,” she said, noting that currently many households were racking up credit card debt just to stay afloat.
The Opposition Senator added: “At a bare minimum, access to food, water and shelter must be the cornerstone of Government policies as we go through this crisis. Food vouchers and extended NIS benefits can be policy tools that could be used. Programmes that see a merger between the Ministry of Agriculture and Ministry of Social Care and People’s Empowerment can expand the services provided by departments such as the Welfare Department.”
(CLM)
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