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Central Bank of Barbados Projects Economic Growth

Text – Analysis of Barbados’ Current Economic Performance

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Text – Analysis of Barbados’ Current Economic Performance

123 responses to “Central Bank of Barbados Projects Economic Growth”

  1. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Due Diligence | January 15, 2014 at 2:02 PM |
    “Engaging Dr. Bergsten to advise or consult Government, may be the most intelligent decision taken by a Barbados Government in 20 years, if it executes the recommendations.”

    So what’s wrong with Prof. Frank Alleyne? Isn’t he up to the job any more?

    Is this man being paid consultancy fees and his living expenses settled by the tax payers of Barbados?

    If only this blasted lying incompetent administration had heeded the sound advice of Ryan Straughn and Prof. Howard (for free) the shite street the country is up now would have been washed down long time ago. The blasted advice this Dr. Bergsten is going to give is the same advice that was given by the indigenous people whose only concern was the direction the country was heading.
    Even Mascoll showed his undying love for the DLP had tried his best to put them on the correct path to avoid the economic quagmire of financial poison the country is in.

    It has taken the white man to tell this stupid black administration what to do. We wonder what Negroman, ac, the ‘MIA’ man CCC and the other circus clowns like Fractured and Bajanfuhlife have to say about the ‘re-colonization’ of Bay Street. Next move a white, PM?

  2. David Avatar
    David

  3. David Avatar
    David

    The Governor says we have enough foreign currency reserves and therefore there is no need to enter an IMF program. However, the government has decided to engage technical assistance. The reason Barbados has adequate reserves is because we have been borrowing at usurious rates because of junk status credit rating. What we need to discuss is if the price is too high based on current strategy to defend the currency peg.

  4. are-we-there-yet? Avatar
    are-we-there-yet?

    Did any of the journalists ask him about what has been happening in the FX reserves in the few weeks that the Credit Suisse loan has been brought to book? or what was the lowest level the FX reserves shrunk to in November / December last year?

  5. Prodigal Son Avatar
    Prodigal Son

    @ DLP (formerly CBC) TV | January 15, 2014 at 5:48 PM

    Excellent post, we just cannot fathom the nonsense spewed from this man. Was it not in August that he and the ignorant MOF said that they dont need the IMF, not now, not in the forseeable future. Is this not what he said? They are brazen liars.

    They are playing games with people’s lives…..look at them in the advocate today laughing their heads off…..in the face of such dire circumstances…3000 people going on the bread line.

    All of this in light of comments from Tony Best’s interview with Aaron Freedman, a Moody”s analyst……here are some quotes………

    …the government recognised that if it didn’t start to reduce its fiscal deficit, debts levels would continue to rise which were already reaching dangerously high proportions and that some sort of action had to be taken immediately.

    …….there is a risk that they (the layoffs) are a little too late.Had government undertaken more aggressive fiscal consolidation it might not had needed to resort to these measures.

    ….still an open question if measures will be sufficient

    ….economy is between a rock and a hard place

    ….the trouble is that the government’s ability to borrow is limited. The devaluation is something that is an increasing risk

    ….there will be a significant impact on inflation after a devaluation. It would erase many of the competitiveness gains that devaluation might otherwise help achieve. That’s why devaluation would certainly not come about as a policy preference of the government. But the government could find itself in a situation where its hand is forced.

    Not that last point is telling and frightening.

  6. Observing Avatar
    Observing

    “Central Bank Governor Dr Delisle Worrell is reporting that investor confidence has returned to the local economy. And he says it’s a result of Government’s fiscal programmes announced in the August 2013 budget and reinforced by measures announced last December.”

    the December measures were announced, because the August measures were not working as expected. Yet, despite being unable to determine where 300M in forex disappeared in 3 months earlier in the year and despite being dead wrong with the 2 MTFS’s, we can say with certainty in January 2014 that that confidence has returned….only 3 weeks after the expanded strategy was announced to prop up the under performing strategy.

    I musse got “arse” write pun my forhead.

    Just Observing

  7. David Avatar
    David

    Agree with the point that to see the several actors laughing their asses off when employees are about to hit the breadline is the height of insensitivity. Then again they are likely dealing with the matter as a statistician would.

  8. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Prodigal Son | January 15, 2014 at 7:05 PM |
    “That’s why devaluation would certainly not come about as a policy preference of the government. But the government could find itself in a situation where its hand is forced.”

    This DLP administration knows full well Devaluation is an inevitable consequence of its unparalleled fiscal mismanagement. The credit Suisse loan is just a 3 months’ stay of execution.
    Meanwhile this DLP administration is preparing the wicket to blame the BLP for causing the devaluation of the dollar because of its non-cooperation with the government and its acts to undermine investor confidence in the country. The blame game will soon be back on, my friend.

    That is why the BLP need to stay back a bit and let the DLP fall on its own sword of bungling incompetence. Just read between the Governor’s lines and you would be able to see the real intention of this administration to put the Devaluation outcome strictly on the BLP. Listen out for the first class idiot Kellman to fire the first round in the Devaluation scapegoat battle.

  9. BAFBFP Avatar
    BAFBFP

    Obie … The man job is to inspire confidence .. He don’ have to mean wah he say .. he is there to inspire confidence. So you are saying that he ain’ even doing that either ..?

  10. Prodigal Son Avatar
    Prodigal Son

    @ millertheanunnaki | January 15, 2014 at 6:17 PM |

    Excellent post……I too am wondering what the DLP supporters who spout race every chance they get on BU are saying now that we know that a white man is going to be spending six months breathing down their necks……black people carrying to him every file he wants. Dems, deal with that!

    @ Observing | January 15, 2014 at 7:22 PM |

    Excellent post………I would like to know what has the MOF and the governor done to cause confidence to return to the economy so suddenly. The business community have no confidence nor does it trust this MOF or CBB governor, they are holding on to what is left of what they have after enduring six years of hardship. I can only conclude that the governor lives in la la land.

    But tell me, how does the governor feel having to deal with the IMF after he cuss Christine La Guarde?

  11. Waiting Avatar
    Waiting

    sith | January 15, 2014 at 3:35 PM |

    Look at it this way the island that was nearly washed away xmas eve the island Loveridge, David and the BLP pimps apart from onions (whats become of him?) promote over their homeland did not even make the fcuking list. Barbados the island that PM Stuart stated will not compromise on the adherence to law and order is in the mix and rightly so. Its only the already listed disloyalists and their allies who try to make Barbados look bad. Here’s the thing when the investors and tourists read the bullshite from those depraved Bajans they avoid Barbados and go to other islands often times to be disappointed or live in fear of violent attacks and rampant crime.

  12. Barnabas Collins Avatar
    Barnabas Collins

    I apologize to all those who I may offend now but I have little or no respect for anything the central bank governor has to say. In my estimation his credibility is zero. He has tried his best to always have an outlook that is favourable to the government while Rome burn. It is expected that the opposition is to say that everything is bad. It is expected that the government is to say everything is good. But the central Bank governor was to tell us the truth. But he didn’t. Instead of being a technocrat, he became a politician. And here we are unfortunately. As far as I am concern, he is the 17th member of parliament on the government side. Less anyone accuses me of being an operative from the other side, the other governors would couched their language as not to upset the governing politicians but never to the point where they compromise their professional integrity. I again apologize but he can say that the sky is blue and I aint believing him….

  13. Barnabas Collins Avatar
    Barnabas Collins

    @waiting…your argument is flawed. Are you saying that investors et al are stupid. If we say that everything is rosy do you think that investors will invest because everyone sings the same tune….That argument is flawed now. It will be flawed tomorrow and it will be flawed in the future. That is like telling me that our economy were so far ahead of the others that the only way for the other economies to go was up and they now catching up….another totally flawed argument. Haiti is projected to have growth in their economy. A place which was devastated by an earthquake…..stupse

  14. Vincent Haynes Avatar
    Vincent Haynes

    Well,the Barbados has come to its final denouement,the intelligent ones are starting to believe themselves……recipe for disaster….

  15. JUST ASKING Avatar
    JUST ASKING

    A WOMAN TAKES OVER AT BWU
    WOMEN TAKING CHARGE IN BARBADOS

    WHY CANT THERE BE A WOMENS POLITICAL PARTY OF BARBADOS ??

    JUST ASKING

  16. David Avatar
    David

    Gov’ts $300m Bond Issue Oversubscribed 20 Times’

    Still, Mr Smith told Tribune Business that the Bahamas’ successful placement stood in stark contrast to Barbados’s unsuccessful capital raising just weeks before, with investors now said to be demanding 10 per cent interest from its Caribbean rival.

    #“The Bahamas’ macroeconomic figures are still very good,” the former finance minister said. “They’re approaching these horrible benchmarks, but at this point they’re not there.

    http://www.tribune242.com/news/2014/jan/15/govts-300m-bond-issue-oversubscribed-20-times/

  17. Observing Avatar
    Observing

    @David
    You’re being wicked 🙂

  18. Back in Time Jack Avatar
    Back in Time Jack

    David

    The IMF website is projecting that there will be no growth in the Barbados economy in 2014 and at -1% this going be worst than 2013.

    We are screwed.

  19. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    The foreign reserves of the government of Barbados can only be the ACTUAL amount in foreign currencies that the government has available to it – at any given point in time – under the jurisdiction of the application of the relevant domestic laws.

    The net foreign reserves of the government of Barbados can only be the RECORDED ESTIMATED amount of total foreign currencies ( estimates of sheer numbers) at any given time, plus or minus the difference in the RECORDED ESTIMSTED amounts of total foreign currencies ( estimates of sheer numbers again) flowing into and out of the country at different times under analysis, and of course according to the RECORDS of those different times under analysis.

    Note therefore that the purported net foreign reserves position of the government for last year, as put forward by the Governor of the Central Barbados could NEVER give – for a start -a good enough picture of the foreign reserves position of the government of this country, mainly because the proposition falsely erroneously takes into consideration information about a ( net ) foreign reserves position that is no longer relevant to what is happening now (Thursday, 16 January, 2014) because the actual amount of the foreign reserves for the particular time passed (beginning last year and every day up until its ending) is no longer there.

    Anyhow, given the two definitions, it is clear when dealing with the external accounts of the government of Barbados, that not only must there be a proper distinction drawn by the PDC between those external accounts of the government of Barbados and those external accounts of other states and of private local and international entities doing business with the government of Barbados or private entities here in Barbados, but there must also be a clear distinction drawn by us between those types of external accounts and the amounts of nominal incomes, payments and transfers (estimates of sheer numbers) that are professed by whomsoever to be allocated into or out of them.

    Thus, it is entirely absurd and grotesque for the Governor of the Central Bank of Barbados to be seeking to explain – in his review Tuesday of this week of the 2013 statistical performance of the political economy and services industry sectors of this country – this really nonexistent slump that he said occurred in the first half of 2013 in the foreign reserves of the government of Barbados on the basis of a decline in foreign investment into the country.

    For not only does this foreign currency -which purports to be the nominal remunerations of mainly private foreigners/private or public foreign entities – not come to Barbados (it remains outside of Barbados – thus totally nullifying anything that purports to be part of the foreign reserves of the government of Barbados, but also that foreign currency purporting to be the foreign remunerations of foreign entities cannot be included in the net foreign reserves of the governments, primarily because they represent the assets of the foreigners – which when used up in productive or non-nonproductive commercial activities of this country – become in the records of whomsoever in this country the nominal income or payments – in most likely Barbados currency – for the locally based recipients.

    So what decline in foreign investment what, as some otherwise pathetic excuse for something – a Central Bank of Barbados manufactured decline in net foreign reserves of the government – that NEVER PLACE IN THE FIRST PLACE, and a Central Bank of Barbados manufactured increase in the net foreign

    PDC

  20. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    The abov

  21. The People's Democratic Congress Avatar
    The People’s Democratic Congress

    The above PDC post was inadvertently sent.

    Anyhow, plus a lack of review for some typos that actually were published in the post, there are some words that were to be published in the last paragraph but were not. These words are: “reserves of the government, and that NEVER TOOK PLACE IN THE FIRST PLACE”.

    Our apologies.

    PDC

  22. Tell me Why Avatar
    Tell me Why

    Duh mekkin fools of our people “ut stulti in populo”

    After following our growth, especially for the last five (5) years I have come to realise that we are stupid when so-called intellects in position wave a stupid wand telling us that our “Financial position is on the way up” How on earth we have been showing negative growth for years and when things were at its worst with two downgrades, private sector jobs being lost, businesses closing, tourism and manufacturing down. Our social services struggling due to non-availability of funds and a host of other direct problems affecting the running of our beloved country.

    OK, we are hoping that Sandals live up to pumping $500. million into our economy, but have we analyse the millions we will be losing due to these promised concession? Remember it is established that Almond employed over 600 employees with constant full rooms. Will Sandals employ more staff with 100% occupancy? Even if that is the case, don’t you feel that the cost of operations at this establishment will be far lower than the original Almond or other hotels around Barbados? Who will be the looser – Barbados and who will have to support that lost – WE THE TAXPAYERS.

    If the GoCB can’t get his quarterly review right – do you feel he can get 2016 projections right? How he can predict $2 billion in 2016. He said that Private Investments were the reason for the slump in FOREX. How come after a slump in FOREX up to the middle of last year he is now able to push FOREX over $1 billion. Who are the investors and where is the actual money. As a matter of fact were that influx came from? Will we see a stoppage of NIS withdrawals?

    With all these promised Government projects, who will be the investors since we were told that IMF financial support is not needed. Come on people, Owen can not extend his statement to the GoCB that it is all a GIMMICK.

  23. Tell me Why Avatar
    Tell me Why

    Owen can now extend his statement to the GoCB that it is all a GIMMICK.

  24. David Avatar
    David

    It is a credibility issue. Nothing the governor has forecast has come true.

    On 16 January 2014 15:09, Barbados Underground

  25. sith Avatar
    sith

    @THE PEOPLES DEMOCRATIC CONGRESS

    What is giving you hope that Sandals will pump $500 million into our economy. It looks like the bill for tourists to stay there is being collected in Florida and no VAT is being charged on that. Has employment increased over the number that were there with the previous operators? How many of the 160 work permits could have been filled locally? Why is there no Barbados rum offered at the property?.

    So $500 million is $10 million per week, There are 280 rooms there so they all gotta generate about $35 thousand dollars per week to get to “the hope number of $500 million” . Maybe my math is wrong but it sure looks to me as if there will be no new FX generated from this transaction.

  26. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ sith | January 16, 2014 at 2:08 PM |
    “What is giving you hope that Sandals will pump $500 million into our economy.”

    Sandals will not be investing one red cent into the construction of that hotel plant only management expertise, if indeed it materializes.

    The current administration is fooling the people the Chinese would be lending $500 million to the GoB to knock down and rebuild a new hotel. The only place in the Caribbean the Chinese would be looking to invest that kind of money in tourism projects is in Cuba (before the Americans go back in). Barbados has nothing the Chinese want.

    Let the GoB tell you more about the Cane Industry Revitalization project that was expected to start in December 2013 and pump US$270 million over 2 year period.
    Then you can start listening to them about some pie-in-the-sky Sandals $500 million imaginary white elephant.

  27. Due Diligence Avatar
    Due Diligence

    Miller

    DD agrees that “Sandals will not be investing one red cent into the construction of that hotel plant only management expertise, if indeed it materializes.”

    BUT, do not underestimate the the likelihood that China will lend Government the $500 million needed to build Beaches.

    The PM is constantly fawning over the Chinese ambassador to keep them on side.

    See the Barbados Today’s report of the latest tete a test at Ilaro Court at http://www.barbadostoday.bb/2014/01/15/bim-wants-more-chinese-visitors/

    Also these.

    http://www.barbadostoday.bb/2012/07/25/chinese-bond/

    http://www.barbadostoday.bb/2013/09/20/everlasting-friendship-pm-says-barbados-relationship-with-china-will-continue-to-deepen/

    http://www.barbadostoday.bb/2013/09/12/mcclean-china-an-invaluable-partner/

    If the PM gets his way, Chinese tourists will fill up the $500 million Beaches Resort without even depending on Butch’s marketing might

  28. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Due Diligence | January 16, 2014 at 3:23 PM |

    The Chinese have one ‘single’ interest in Barbados; that is to maintain a trading relationship enough to keep it as a small but very profitable market to offload cheaply made goods and trinkets for their factories back home.

    As a sweetener for this one-way open market arrangement a gift or two along the way or a long-term promise to build some nebulous performing arts centre is all Bim can expect in return.
    Chinese do not seriously invest in places unless there are natural resources to mine or commodities to harvest. Barbados has none with little geopolitical clout to be played with like a pawn against the Americans (not even the Taiwanese).

    There is no way China will invest that kind of money in a country on the verge of financial collapse under weight of crippling debt and junk bond status especially in a industry with very uncertain profitability in the long term to service the debt with no collateral other than the word of an incompetent politically polarized administration.

    Ask the “Negroman”, he knows a lot about the Chinese.

  29. sith Avatar
    sith

    @millertheanunnaki

    Maybe they have another interest in Barbados

    “The normal human birth ratio is 106 males for every 100 females. In China, that has risen to 118 boys. That means 30 to 50 million men will fail to find wives over the next two decades, according to Prof Li Shuzhuo of the institute for population and development studies at Xi’an Jiaotong University”.

  30. David Avatar
    David

    The Central Bank up until a couple months ago posted a video of the press conference which followed the Governor’s economic review. Why have they stopped it?

  31. David Avatar
    David

    ST. Lucia and The Bahamas ahead of Barbados….what does it mean?

  32. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ sith | January 16, 2014 at 4:18 PM |

    That’s a reasonable angle to look from and which has already been examined.

    The problem here, sith, is that most black women would not find Chinese men worthy of their sexual consideration. Many of them would much prefer to share their well-endowed black men with their sisters than to dip into the oriental pool of Lilliputian eels.

  33. Well Well Avatar
    Well Well

    Miller………..i gotta tell ya, one of my relatives is married to a Chinese and according to her what Lawson is saying about Chinese men and little dicks is absolutely not true….I am now wondering how Lawson knows that…lol

  34. The Fan Avatar
    The Fan

    Two pieces of news that have not received much attention and one wonders why? Is it because it brings the opposition’s agendas into question or what. First there is the withdrawal of the no confidence motion against the Speaker. What arrant nonsense, a gross waste of taxpayers money and the human resources of the parliament. Then there is the substantial reduction in VAT paid by the hotels and tourism services. Has the savings been passed on to the consumer/tourist? Not a word from the bombastic hotel association or the resident tourism guru on this. Or has the vat savings gone into individual pockets of already we’ll heeled hotel execs and owners. Will BU discuss these matters or are they too close to taking governments harshest opponents to task.

  35. ac Avatar
    ac

    Well fan any good news that effects this govts is no NEWS on BU…anyhow keep us uptodate..

  36. Back in Time Jack Avatar
    Back in Time Jack

    Miller

    The MOF and GOCB are currently at logger heads with Estwick because he would not agree to privatize the sugar industry to Sagicor. The MOF and GOCB want to access a loan they are prepared to make to the GOB but one of the conditions is that the GOB turn over all of their estates and sugar factories to Sagicor.

  37. Back in Time Jack Avatar
    Back in Time Jack

    How very patriotic of Sagicor, don’t you agree?

  38. David Avatar
    David

    First it was CLICO who gobbled up the plantations now Sagicor wants to follow? Good for Dr. Estwick.

    On 17 January 2014 00:12, Barbados Underground

  39. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Back in Time Jack | January 16, 2014 at 8:10 PM |

    That is pure poppycock you on about Jack!
    The decision to “privatize” the sugar industry is not one for Estwick to sign off on but the Cabinet. Who the fc**k is in charge of the Cabinet? What kind of leader is in place to allow the country to bleed to death like that?

    You are confusing the BU family with your monkey wrench being thrown into the upgraded sugar factory works. Wasn’t the funding of the sugar revitalization project to come from the Japanese? Is that the reason the MoF in his recent Press briefing dodged the issue and deflected the journalists’ probing to Estwick the MoA?

    The following is what the MoF said in August 2013 and now the liar is now passing the financing buck to poor Dr. D E. Why doesn’t he, Stinkliar, pass the Ministry of Finance?

    “And in the face of a failure by the authorities to do a serious restructuring of the industry it has now come to a juncture at which an ignominious collapse was awaiting. This administration has however designed, and successfully sought financing to advance, a major restructuring of the industry over the next three years, starting next year, in what is the Barbados Cane Industry Project.
    Funding for this exercise (which will see the re-engineering of an existing sugar factory so as to allow it to engage multiple applications, including the production of bio-mass for the co-generation of electricity) has been agreed with the Japanese Bank of International Corporation and Japanese commercial banks for up to US270 million dollars.

    Negotiations with all stakeholders including the workers’ representatives have already begun and the Ministry of Agriculture will be making a fuller pronouncement of the details of the project in the coming weeks.”

  40. Back in Time Jack Avatar
    Back in Time Jack

    Miller

    No poppycock.

    Ask your sources and see if Sinckler and Worrell didn’t call all involved in the Cane Industry project (except Estwick) to meeting at Bay Street to openly advise them to give the project and plantations to Sagicor.

    This is project approved by Cabinet and was included in the throne speech and feature in the GOCB first quarter reports as being vital for the economy.

  41. Back in Time Jack Avatar
    Back in Time Jack

    Another case of the private sector offloading an industry on the GOB once the losses rack up but as soon they smell profits they get in lock step and beg the Government to give them back the industry.

    If Sagicor threatening they won’t grow cane in an effort to under the nationally important project then I say juck a 10% tax on land value in the arse.

  42. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Back in Time Jack | January 16, 2014 at 8:52 PM |
    “If Sagicor threatening they won’t grow cane in an effort to under the nationally important project then I say juck a 10% tax on land value in the arse.”

    Be careful Jack with that “jucking arse tax talk”. You have to remember that whatever Sagicor does nothing can be achieved without the CLICO lands in the mix.

    Would you also support a tax on the idle CLICO sugar lands? Who would pay it, the bald pooch cat?

    Is Sagicor also trying to take over the CLICO plantations and therefore the entire sugar cane lands in Barbados after the GoB offloads (forced to sell to Sagicor) the BSIL and BADC bush fields?

  43. Back in Time Jack Avatar
    Back in Time Jack

    The BAMC is already managing the CLICO sugar plantations and they are growing cane, not optimally but canes are being grown so no need to tax them.

    Sagicor might want to buy the CLICO lands, that’s a ‘deal’ that can easily be ‘hooked’ up in Barbados but I can’t see the GOB giving the BAMC estates and the factories to Sagicor.

  44. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Back in Time Jack | January 16, 2014 at 9:22 PM |

    Where is the cane growing on CLICO plantations? In St. John?
    The reason why the government is dealing with Sagicor is that the government is broke and unable to access financing to support the sugar industry. Sagicor has cash to lend unlike the NIS but will not give in until the collateral in the form of the plantation lands is secured.
    CLICO did it with the Old Plantations Limited real estate. Sagicor is ensuring policyholders monies are secured by way of the only real assets in Bim.

  45. Back in Time Jack Avatar
    Back in Time Jack

    Miller

    Not exactly Ansa have offered the GOB all the money they want for the sugar industry and more. Sagicor won’t win against Estwick, don’t forget it’s only one seat people playing with.

  46. Back in Time Jack Avatar
    Back in Time Jack

    Pool, Wakefield, Todd’s and Henley

  47. ralph Avatar
    ralph

    Oh give me a break!! a couple years ago he said “bricks will do the trick!”

  48. CHAUCER Avatar
    CHAUCER

    @ Back in Time Jack
    Your Sagicor / sugar project lacks credence, Sagicor isn’t the NIS and will be more prudence in investing policy holders funds. Any meeting between Sagicor and the Govt , at this time, will be a request to bring home the proceeds from the recent sale of its UK corp to build up the foreign reserves

  49. Triangle Bangle Avatar
    Triangle Bangle

    CHAUCER

    Its a fact credence notwithstanding. The GOB is requesting that Sagicor bring the sale proceeds from the UK to Barbados to shore up the international reserves and Sagicor have agree providing they can buy the CLICO plantations and get the BAMC estates and factories thrown in for free.

  50. Triangle Bangle Avatar
    Triangle Bangle

    Don’t fool yourself CHAUCER, we in Barbados too love a monopoly, especially a Trini one.

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