@ David
Why you encouraging Wickham in foolishness nuh? What come out and face what music what? 🙂
If Wickham knew what was good for him he would follow Old Onions example and keep a low profile for the next 5 years or so…

@ Adrian L
The elections done. The only thing that will happen with tourism is continued decline. The source markets are suffering…..
We have enjoyed an extended period of operating WAY above our class and we would be fools to expect such levels of performance to continue when there is such intense competition from NEW, cheaper and more innovative destinations….and such idiots running our industry at ALL levels.

Time to look SERIOUSLY at alternatives….

@Bushie

It was a tongue and cheek remark.

@ Bush Tea ;In Grenada

@Doc GP

Good analysis, it is evident Wickham’s model of polling was challenged by closeness of the poll.

@all
Interesting tidbit. Peter Wickham is reported as saying that he is “convinced that the view of Barbadians have clearly changed”

Will anyone tell him and others that his polls have the impact of changing views and behaviour?

Just Observing

Wickham should really be saying that the voters have realized that “Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me” and he should be congratulating the electorate for their powers of perception.

David
Wickham’s model held true for ARTHUR, MIA KELLMAN, MARA PAYNE, DALE JONES etc. Except for Mia when the first boxes were counted their opponents were ahead, but predictions from historicity determined that these would still win- and they did. Similarly in St Philip the safe seats of Estwick and Lashley Certain traditional seats like Agard also followed the pattern.

Unexpected departure from the norm cause difficulty in prediction because of several factors that must be considered including poor choice of candidate, because in this election the party brand did not allow newer or weaker candidates to be swept home.

The last two polls caused the diehards of both parties to be energized, and it seems that both parties were successful in getting their folk out to vote.

@ BU/David
“…Wickham needs to determine his role in the Barbados space ie. political scientist, pollster, social commentator etc. He has been allowed to assume a ‘godlike’ spectre on all issues in Barbados”

I don’t think the different roles Peter plays have anything to do with him not hitting the nail directly in the head. I think that Peter wants to be all things to most people and that will not suffice. He probably felt like a sow in a sash after the tables turned late in the game. Yuh win sum, yuh lose sum.
Anyway, Peter may want to get in touch with Nate Silver in USA who is considered the master at predicting elections correctly to learn more–basically to see what he may have overlook in his assessment.

Congrats to all the elects and re-elects. I know this is very hard to do in your line of work but stop trying to fool some of the people some of the time and try to tell the truth all the time.

Don’t want to be beating up on Wickham, but he really underestimated the knowledge the voters have on the level of corruption that was practiced for decades by both parties. Technology has become very dangerous for politicians. Ask mitt romney (mutt robme). The younger generation can now see clear into the next decade, while the present crop of politicians can’t see past their fat stomachs.

@ David
Touché.

@ DJ
It is so easy to fall prey to the ruthless exploiters now out there, that the wonton promotion of tourism is, in itself a VERY DANGEROUS exercise in these difficult times.
Our experiences with kind-hearted Canadians and guilt-ridden British tourist DO NOT properly prepare us for any expansion into other markets…..even CARICOM markets……

This is compounded by the kind of incompetence among our tourism management that comes from years of easy success and lack of serious competition.

@ GP
What silly to scold what Wickham what??!?

Wickhams whole methodology is predicated on an unscientific reliance on what he calls a ‘national swing’. That concept is flawed because the ‘national swing’ is really an aggregate of domestic constitutional swings which CANNOT be correctly applied across the board.
Two or three DLP candidates may well lose popularity quite significantly AND MAY OR MAY NOT HOLD THEIR SEAT, while creating a “national swing” that is not applicable outside of their constituencies. (Eg St John, St George S)
In landslide situations, Wickham may get away with this flaw, but it should be obvious that it is a logical weakness.

A proper poll should sample EACH constituency and deal ONLY with individual constituency swings in making serious projections.

In other words…
National Swing is not a reliable dependent variable in a situation where local domestic realities are so divergent.

@ David:

Stuart can choose to solidify his tenure as leader, by keeping a united team, or demonstrate that he is the leader and exercise his authority. The latter would be fool-hardy and proves nothing.

as a team the DLP will achieve plenty; as the leader of the team he achieves as well. Ruthless leadership has no place in our modern world. People are more independent in their thinking and any effective leader must take this into account.

Congratulations to my DLP friends. Your party pulled a rabbit out of the hat.

I sincerely hope that the government can get it together, especially in light of the ominous signs on the horizon, especially the continuing massive current account deficits built up over the last five years and continuing every day. Borrowing to pay salaries and other current bills is unsustainable.

We can all brace ourselves for the onslaught of the $150 million cut in expenditure starting with this year’s estimates.

It’s not up to Stuart alone; Remember the eager 11 did not go through with whatever they were thinking -not out of any deference for Stuart- but out of concern for their own political careers. The DLP was elected as a Team; Stuart knows this, they all should know this — that they are all equals with Stuart merely the first is even more true today.

Leroy Parris for Senator?

@ac | February 22, 2013 at 10:29 AM |
“STUART has demonstrated that he is capable of walking through landmines without being blown to bits”

this is a silly statement, the win for the DLP shows that they got the majority of seats only, this is a perfect example of why the First Pass the Pole system does not work. i do not know which party has accumulated the most number of votes but if it shows that the BLP had the most number and the DLP the greater number of seats then it means that the majority of people will be governed but the unpopular vote. i think this system should be changed at some point in time

the only reason I think Todd did not win was the fact that he probably did not hand out money, like i am pretty sure Denis Lowe did. it boggles my mind that for the constituency that Lowe represented, would actually return him, when he was the worst of the DLP MPs who did not help the constituency they represented. I seriously his win, i question Wood’s defeat and i especially question George Payne’s victory. people have been witnessed to money giving out, a relative told me of the 1000s that was given out in St. Michael West Central yesterday in ‘broad day light’. I am relieve that it is over, that none were injured but time will tell, if this win will take Barbados steps closer to economic prosperity of recede into economic poverty

Just look at this thread, the same sorry bunch of knuckleheads.

Saying nothing important, no wonder you are back on the opposition benches just as I predicted!!!!

Stuart will gingerly deal with his colleagues, he can’t afford to rock the boat, less one or two jump ship to the other side, but i suspect he will try to assert himself now that he has faced the electorate and has been given a mandate. I expect interesting times within the five year period.

To bash Peter is totally unjustified. He did say there was a 5% margin of error, so if we look at the results we would see that he really wasn;t wrong.

@Adrian

Fran made the good point why Stuart will have to get it right.

@David
The more I muse upon this result,the more I disagree with the view that the Barbados electorate are the winners.Think of it.When the Hon Members choose a Speaker,I assume it will be a Dem and likely Carrington again.Stuart now has 15 including himself.The opposition 14.New blood on the opposing side will want to make their mark and we can look forward to drawn daggers from Prescod, Symmonds,Bradshaw and Bostic.Sorry Gooding-Edghill did’nt make it.His platform delivery was impressive.I posit the view that Stuart might be a lameduck Prime Minister this session.He will not achieve anything without looking over his shoulder and looking at the opposition benches too!

Baf
Again you are right, but this political culture does not permit a ‘third way’. As a result Stuart has no other option than to do an Arthur and pilfer some Bees to buttress his narrow ‘minority’. We must thank our slavish acceptance of the Westminster model for a near and possibly soon constitutional crisis.

Anyone that has interest in a wonderful bargain can go to ebay.com:
FOR SALE
A brand new set of DESIGNER DRAPES,brand new DESIGNER CURTAINS pre purchased for ILARO COURT,but no longer needed.
AC,TTP,CCC and CLONE need not attempt to buy.

If this victory was achieved in the right manner then it will last out the full term,because i cannot understand how a box can be found after one clock when a recount is called .

@New Era ”Despite all of the money that the BLP put in the St. Michael, St. Andrew, St. James and St. Joseph constitutences, them STILL LOSS.

The good LORD don’t sleep and there shall be no rest for the WICKET.”
—————————–

And how bout all that Chinee money? Who pelt that about deng??

Nuff ipods and ting.

Cadres poll was RIGHT cepting they did not factor in alla de spenning…

Chaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa