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Choice Of An Elections Date

Submitted by Old Onions Bag How does a Prime Minister go about choosing the right day to have General Elections? What must be the essential ingredients that will weigh to his party’s advantage to secure another term? Constitutionally that nominal day is set as five years from the date of the last elections date with…

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Submitted by Old Onions Bag
Prime Minister Fruendel Stuart has the responsibility to fix the general election date

How does a Prime Minister go about choosing the right day to have General Elections? What must be the essential ingredients that will weigh to his party’s advantage to secure another term? Constitutionally that nominal day is set as five years from the date of the last elections date with a ninety day grace in the eventuality of an unforeseen emergency. Given this criteria, the latest this election date should be set is April 30th, 2013. It would take some fortitude to postpone the upcoming elections until that date, as such might be seen as desperate and lack of confidence.

So what is left to be considered using most likely decision trees and PERT (project evaluation and research techniques) analysis  as necessary inputs to these models? Using today’s date as the start or current date, what other factors of interest would be of interest to the Hon. Prime Minister, should he, if being a scientific mind, consider as relevant and most crucial to aid in his decision making? Here is our rack, what we considered as most relevant :

  • Crop Over
  • Rihanna show
  • End of most businesses financial year
  • Month of October..deadest month of the year
  • St. John’s polyclinic completion
  • Independence celebrations
  • Start of the 2013 tourist season
  • Christmas season

We consider these to be our red letter days as input to our models. These are times of worthy note and could play a crucial part in decision making. Prioritizing and repositioning events with probabilities responsive…. dates of most likeliness, with margins of error, place that day as..XXXX…(Much guarded secret)…..Do your own calculations. Have fun !

161 responses to “Choice Of An Elections Date”

  1. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    WHY ARE YOU HELL BENT TO STOP THIS THREAD ?
    Is it that …maybe something important is about to be REVEALED ?
    Why not let others see where we going with this ?

  2. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    I am your friend, I am just trying to stop you from making a fool of yout self.

    Do not walk in the foot steps of millertheanunnaki. He predicted May2012, then he predicted June2012. I am awaiting with bated breath his next prediction.

    However you are my boy, I dont want people making “laughing sport” at you that is all there is to it.

  3. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Getting back on thread….before we were so rudely interrupted AGAIN..

    Most retail businesses in Barbados have 31st October as their fiscal year end. The significant of this date to our model is to allow business houses to maximise political contributions paid.. before close of company year. The year 2012 being a most terrible year for obvious reasons, the would be able to use contributions given as a tax relief nxt year. A company’s cash made availability to contributions , may act as a negative here as well as companies will need all cash to restock for the christmas season..
    Attach a medium low outcome to this fellow in October Prob.(0.45)

  4. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    PERT, WERT, FERT all is foolishness.

    When ever elections are called the BLP will be defeated once again, that is all you have to worry about.

  5. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    TO BE CONTINUED…. will resume…when fly flies….

  6. john C Chapman Avatar
    john C Chapman

    Yes Owen with his big month half or stale drunk in 2003 aay Wayvell ave said that there were two government officials being investigated by the FBI. It is a fact that at the time a man with a Sir Name Walcott was a government officer making if an officer of the government……….after he left government this same Walcott was hold by the FBI in NYC for things that happen in BIM.Owen needs to tell the truth

  7. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    From Feb. 2008 you BLP people were calling elections dates. Every single month was supposed to be elections up until June 2012.

    Now you are with PERF or PERT to try to find out which date from Aug. 2012 until close of play when the General elections will be held.

    You people really need a life.

    The same thing with the economy of Barbados. The economy according to you BLP people was going to collapse from Feb. 2008 up until the last Budget day 26 June 2012, so says Seethru.

  8. Prodigal Son Avatar
    Prodigal Son

    onions,
    Dont get sidetracked by the arseon on this thread. A big DLP hack in CBC told someone that the date is in September. They must have gotten that info from arseon. Well now we know September, it will now change. This is the kind of games this incompetent administration, Fumble in particular is playing with us. They need all the time to grab whatever is left of the fatted calf.

  9. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Here we go again.

    Sept. 2012 it is this time. Prodigal Son, God forbid, is now the Prime Minister.

    Let me see which of you BLP jokers will come up with Oct. 2012 and who else will come up Nov. 2012 and so on and so on.

    I am waiting.

  10. islandgal246 Avatar
    islandgal246

    Carson waaaait you got nuff time on yuh hands today… The recession ketch up wid yuh? yuh get laid off?

  11. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ Prodigal
    Nah I was not taken back by Balem’s beast…..I just could not understand his tenaciousness…..it was like a bald head bull frog attack from hell…At one point Onions thought he had finally joined ac in aslynm land. Like he is having his tit bit now….lunch flies I mean. I shall now recap our probability rack so far and associated weighs of probability and importance :
    Prob. Weights Month
    – Crop Ova 0.45 70 Aug

    – Rhianna 0.70 90 Sept

    – Co. Fin. Yr 0.40 60 Oct

    Weights are but cardinal ranking of peoples emotional response as a political goodwill assoc.

  12. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Islandgal246
    I do have a little free time on my hands every now and then.

  13. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Event………..Prob………….Wgt………….Month….RK

    Crop Ov………0.45…………0.70…………Aug…….31.5
    Rhanna………0.70…………0.90………….Sept……63.0
    Fin.Y…………..0.40…………0.60………….Oct……..24.0
    Indep…………0.65………….0.85………….Nov…….55.0

  14. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Where is Balaams beast ? Aarsonnnnnnn

  15. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ Carboard….your mega six…..

    At any rate, the next morning, Balaam saddled up his ass and rode with the messengers to see Balac. En route, the ass grew distressed and swerved off the path. Balaam beat her.
    Then the ass crushed Balaam’s leg against a wall and Balaam beat her again.
    Then the ass sank to the ground, refusing to budge. Balaam beat her once more — and then “the Lord opened the mouth of the ass, and she said: ‘What have I done to thee? Why strikest thou me, lo, now this third time?’”
    Balaam answered, “Because thou hast deserved it, and hast served me ill: I would I had a sword that I might kill thee.”
    The ass said, “Am not I thy beast, on which thou hast been always accustomed to ride until this present day? tell me if I ever did the like thing to thee.”

  16. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    After Independence day celebrations… has great possibilities and as such a High Probability of occurrence Prob.(0.65) and also a High emotional response weighing of 85….out done only by Rhianna’s event positions well on the decision tree variable rack. Nov-Dec…very, very likely ..

    St. John’s Polyclinic….very important Capita Asset (there are few)…..completion of this clinic places a time constraint to the event Prob (0.45) weight given 90…..do the maths !

  17. Observing (and inquiring) Avatar
    Observing (and inquiring)

    Onions, I hope you are factoring in that you are dealing with the Honourable Freundel J. Stuart MP QC, Prime Minister of Barbados. that variable alone would catspraddle any permutations you have worked out.

    Just observing.

  18. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Dat is so true man….nuttin can’t predict E…..Will have to input a variable Q to all those already computed…..let’s see, latin, QC,EZ boy, Ketchup…whalosss

  19. Enuff Avatar
    Enuff

    Whatever the date, the Dems gine get murderrrrrrrrrr!

  20. NationBLPnewspaper Avatar
    NationBLPnewspaper

    Is it a coincidence that the same claims about the economy which are made by Clyde Mascoll always seem to be repeated by Albert Brandford, Sanka Price and Pat Hoyos?
    Either these men always share the same perspective on issues or they are in frequent conversation and collaboration.
    One thing is for certain, if you criticise Owen Arthur or The BLP, you will not be allowed to write in the Nation newspaper . Party First, Country second but then again do the Trinidadian owners really give a damn about Barbados except to repatriate the profits.

  21. Enuff Avatar
    Enuff

    @ Nation
    “One thing is for certain, if you criticise Owen Arthur or The BLP, you will not be allowed to write in the Nation newspaper .”

    If you were a known or perceived supporter of the BLP you were sent home in 2008 and 2009. What is worse? Stupse.

  22. 2dbone Avatar
    2dbone

    One must wonder if Freundel’s FBI report reference is the smoke to a much bigger fire he is about to unleash of Owen. If it isnt, he deserves to be beaten by Barny because there was nothing significant about the FBI report in the Budget debate.

  23. David (not BU) Avatar
    David (not BU)

    if i was a BLP member, I would be happy to see that the DEMS want to talk about corruption in this up coming election.

  24. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    BARBADOS

    The economy that just wont collapse!

    Much to the chagrin of the corrupt Barbados Labour Party.

    From Feb. 2008 to this year’s Budget debate,” de country at de brink, de country at de brink” by next week all will be lost.

    Yet to the great annoyance and disappointment of the Barbados Labour Party the ship of state continues along. The Barbados Labour Party were hoping that by now the country would be in complete chaos and confusion.

    What the BLP fails to realise is that the ship is in the hands of the Glorious Democratic Labour Party. The Party of VISION. The party which has brought the country to the high level it has attained since Independence. The Barbados Labour Party has always had to play catch up to the Democratic Labour Party. Every initiative started by the DLP has been criticised by the visionless BLP. From Independence to free education to membership of the UN to the introduction of tv into Barbados to memebership of the OAS to the introduction of the University of the West Indies to Summer camps for the Nation’s children and the list goes on and on.

    Grantley Adams said that if you introduce free education to the masses who will cut the white people canes. That is the Barbados Labour Party for you.

    And it has not changed. The Barbados Labour Party fought against the recent Employment rights bill. This is the same party which will go knocking at the homes of workers begging for a vote.

    They will get votes too, enough to keep them on the opposition benches for the next five years.

  25. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    David (not BU)

    We are still trying to find the $5million. transferred from the The Min. of Finance to the Vat office to pay Vat returns which has disappeared. That was during your BLP administration.

    To this day the $5miliion. is still on the books of the Vat department.

    Can you help us find it

  26. David (not BU) Avatar
    David (not BU)

    i can’t but you need to worried about your party’s ass which is expose when it comes to the same corruption you and others talking about

  27. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Five more years on the opposition benches get familiar with the thought BLP.

  28. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    David
    How does one rid themselves from a political humbug? Is there anything I can do to get this Balaam’s beast of my case ? From since this morning D cornwall been rubbing me like a panty then….Aarson you does have anything to contribute to one of the other threads ? man ya gettin ova bearing now..

  29. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    onions

    I gone.

  30. David Avatar
    David

    If anyone is in doubt of whether Arthur is in charge of the BLP the news is that Kerri Symmonds was to open Sandra Husbands meeting last weekend but he turned up late. When he finally arrived Arthur told him not to bother to sit on the podium. Hmmm

  31. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    To close the rack of variables consider the on coming tourist season 2013 and Christmas season both times of economic and commercial activity .Both most unsuited times for such as minds distracted from politics
    We have by calculation associated low med. low probabilities and political goodwill weights as follows.
    Tour Prob ( 0.65) ………………60………………39
    Chris ………(0.50)……………….50………………25
    From here one will use CPA critical path and sensitivity analysis…..to come up with the most desirable point.

  32. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Critical Path Analysis and PERT are powerful tools that help you to schedule and manage complex projects. They were developed in the 1950s to control large defense projects, and have been used routinely since then.

    Competent Decider of importance here>>
    How Good Is Your Decision-Making?

    We’ve probably all made a decision that later turned out to be wrong. But the question is this: did we make the best possible decisions with the information available at that time? Did we trust to luck or “instinct”; or did we weigh up information and options carefully, and use our very best judgment?

    In business and in our personal lives, we use decision-making skills every day. Some of these decisions will be right, and some will be wrong – however, what matters is that we make decisions when they need to be made, and that we make the best decision that we can with the information available.

    Whether you’re making a routine decision, or a major choice with far reaching consequences, MindTools.com is a great place to find the tools and techniques you’ll need. With the right decision-making toolkit, you can make the best possible decision, and so make the right decision more of the time!

    Here enters Observring… Q Factor…..the variable ..we are unable easily quantity with any assurance….the FUNDY Factor….erratic but known…important and difficult to inject…..we call in the psychologist at this point for their input….

  33. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ David
    Kerri Symmonds was to open Sandra Husbands meeting last weekend but he turned up late. When he finally arrived Arthur told him not to bother to sit on the podium.
    ****************************
    “Sometimes when we not sure …we should snore”…
    F. G.Hoyos.
    David I was present at the function. The function was billed as an “opening and blessing” of the building function. Not a spot meeting, as was incorrectly suggested. Closed in terms of time, with a clergy element who was to bless the building. As a result the speeches were short and slotted. Mr. Kerri Symmonds was to speak at 4.00 pm before Mr. Arthur. He arrived at 5.13 Pm . When he arrived the leader of the opposition ( main speaker before moving on into the building) was already speaking on the podium and informed Kerri of the situation.No theatrics as a DLP yardbird ( who probably informed you ).. may want to suggest.

  34. To the point Avatar
    To the point

    Poor onions

    just read something on critical path thinking and now pontificating on it. Decision making is situational, among other things.

  35. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Given the above, ….the most likely scientific time is assessed as Sept-Oct……obviously not accounting for the Q Factor…..(no psychologist report coming)..and as such based on this decision tree analysis, critical points being the Rhianna concert and Independence.

    No Critical Path measure implemented either, for obvious reasons..(Q Factor again).

    Thank you Aarson for the lil breathing space this morning ! This could have been completed since yesterday.

  36. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    Onions

    Just give a moment of your time.

    “The Mottley family linked to Mia Mottley brought the Arch Cot Scrub land that couldn’t be built and withinsix months got planning permission when the previous owner couldn’t because it was caved. The Codrington family totaling five ALL died at Arch Cot, Brittons Hill. Their home fell into a cave beneath it. Someone was responsible. Someone has to be accountable. Yes, of course, those BLP clowns. Those deaths could have been avoided. No building on that land should have been allowed. The VECO Corporation (Alaska) was awarded a government contract via Owen Arthur, Mia Mottley and Dale Marshall WITHOUT TENDER. The VECO Corporation built the prison at Dodds in St. Phillip. Surprise, VECO had no track record of building prisons. Owen Arthur, Mia Mottley and Dale Marshall associated themselves with a corrupt company to build the prison at Dodds and the Barbados oil terminal. Give those clowns a hand clap, Arthur, Mottley and Marshall. Owen Arthur in 2006 invested 2.4 million in a Nigerian water heater project. No water heaters were produced and the 2.4 million dollars was lost and or unaccounted for. Give that clown a hand clap, Owen Arthur.”
    http://realandreality.wordpress.com/

  37. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    onions

    Thanks a lot, I gone again!

  38. Observing (and polling) Avatar
    Observing (and polling)

    @david
    With great power comes great responsibility. The largest responsibility is to use the power given to achieve results and move forward the team or the organisation. There are a myriad of ways of doing this, some more effective than others depending on circumstance and personality. Like it (him) or not, Arthur has honed his to a tee.

  39. Sargeant Avatar
    Sargeant

    @Onions

    David I was present at the function. The function was billed as an “opening and blessing” of the building function. Not a spot meeting, as was incorrectly suggested. Closed in terms of time, with a clergy element who was to bless the building. As a result the speeches were short and slotted. Mr. Kerri Symmonds was to speak at 4.00 pm before Mr. Arthur. He arrived at 5.13 Pm . When he arrived the leader of the opposition ( main speaker before moving on into the building) was already speaking on the podium and informed Kerri of the situation.No theatrics as a DLP yardbird ( who probably informed you ).. may want to suggest
    ***********

    I used to think that you were just a cheerleader ( complete with tutu and pom poms) but your being privy to that info tells me that you are much higher up the food chain in the BLP.

  40. Enuff Avatar
    Enuff

    @ Carson

    “The VECO Corporation (Alaska) was awarded a government contract via Owen Arthur, Mia Mottley and Dale Marshall WITHOUT TENDER. The VECO Corporation built the prison at Dodds in St. Phillip. Surprise, VECO had no track record of building prisons.”

    Hmmmm and SMI built which marina and submitted what tender? Desperate much?

  41. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ Sarge
    Do you really believe that ? Why you have me blushing now. Next thing some other yard bird will be telling me they are willing to vote Onions….although that would be a safe vote.
    Look Sarge you are so wrong…..Why I would be out canvassing, all like now , if I were…or strategising in some office..no my “no proper souse” friend….Onions is but a barn owl ..looking for stray mice to pick off.

  42. Sargeant Avatar
    Sargeant

    @Onions

    Yuh mean Arthur didn’t even admonish Kerrie for being tardy? If you are supposed to be there @ 4.00 pm and you get there @ 5.13 pm that is operating on CP ( coloured people) time. Bet yuh Kerrie had an excuse “ Skippa de car brek down”

    Onions yuh mean yuh aint canvassing all like now? What do you call this haranguing on de blogs? Yuh can’t fool those who are observant we know that you close to the decision makers.

  43. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    @ Sarge
    Think what you like den……but wait you very exacting for a Canadian Ex pat…man like you job pun D clothes line….anyway I hear to talk to Carson

    @ Carson
    What foolishness you talkin doa ? Mia own a cave now….Boy why you doa go n apologize to Balaam…before he put some more lashes in the ass.
    Aarson..you hear me doa ?

  44. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Both Aarson and Sarge…….like dey gone Paris all a sudden..wonder why ?

  45. Crusoe Avatar
    Crusoe

    Heard MIA on the radio a short while ago on culture and cultural industry.

    Nice to hear the next PM;s views in a calm setting.

  46. Prodigal Son Avatar
    Prodigal Son

    This nay nay PM we have just used the word “propitious” which simply means favourable. You dont think he could just use favourable and his message would not be lost.

    I heard a lady who is called Miss Simple on Brasstacks telling David Ellis…. “we is cant understand what he does be saying, you have to go and find a dictionary to look up the words. The PM should talk so that people like us can understand what he does be saying”.

    Dont you think he can speak more simply so that his message is not lost. Tell me how many people understood what he meant……using words just appear intelligent is not showing intelligence at all!

  47. Prodigal Son Avatar
    Prodigal Son

    The PM said tonight that he has asked the Foreign Ministry to look at how the country is being represented overseas and if its resources are deployed in the right areas. I hope they have a close look at China. That is a waste of money at this time. The dead king sent Sandi over there to get him off his back!

    This is a way the government can cut expenditure instead of cutting back on the NIS benefits for the unemployed. Something is not right with what the minister of finance is saying. If the funds has 10 million dollars surplus per month, why are they reverting to 26 weeks of benefits but is using the people’s money for paying their monthly bills,lending the credit union, Four Seasons and UWI.

    Using up the NIS money, “arseon” is the only reason this economy has not gone south. In a recent interview, Olga Kallinski expressed concern over the misuse of NIS funds.

  48. Crusoe Avatar
    Crusoe

    @Prodigal Son,

    Well Sir, maybe the gentleman has empirical cause and believes that being parsimonious with language is not propitious and further maybe such use may be iodisyncratic to the gentleman rather than gasconading.

    Indeed, anomalistic tendencies in communication may not be of significance, but there may be cases where such tendencies may indeed be perspicacious.

    Fuh true.

  49. old onion bags Avatar
    old onion bags

    Boys..like FUNDY ain’t the only language diplodocus…lol
    But Crusoe…answer me this come elections…..who gine vote for the romanticist ? Professor Bimblechuckle……or George from D Bayland ?

  50. Crusoe Avatar
    Crusoe

    @Onions,

    Very insightful. A smart one would try to get the majority. Nowadays people are not so impressed with such verbosity, especaily lwith all the internat and cable they watch.

    Methinks at least some players are coming to the match in cricket whites, and it raining cats and dogs. More suitable for rugby.

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