Submitted by Old Onions Bag
How does a Prime Minister go about choosing the right day to have General Elections? What must be the essential ingredients that will weigh to his party’s advantage to secure another term? Constitutionally that nominal day is set as five years from the date of the last elections date with a ninety day grace in the eventuality of an unforeseen emergency. Given this criteria, the latest this election date should be set is April 30th, 2013. It would take some fortitude to postpone the upcoming elections until that date, as such might be seen as desperate and lack of confidence.
So what is left to be considered using most likely decision trees and PERT (project evaluation and research techniques) analysis as necessary inputs to these models? Using today’s date as the start or current date, what other factors of interest would be of interest to the Hon. Prime Minister, should he, if being a scientific mind, consider as relevant and most crucial to aid in his decision making? Here is our rack, what we considered as most relevant :
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Crop Over
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Rihanna show
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End of most businesses financial year
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Month of October..deadest month of the year
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St. John’s polyclinic completion
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Independence celebrations
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Start of the 2013 tourist season
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Christmas season
We consider these to be our red letter days as input to our models. These are times of worthy note and could play a crucial part in decision making. Prioritizing and repositioning events with probabilities responsive…. dates of most likeliness, with margins of error, place that day as..XXXX…(Much guarded secret)…..Do your own calculations. Have fun !
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