Chris Sinckler, Minister of Finance (l), Owen Arthur, Opposition Leader (2l), Clyde Mascoll, BLP spokesman of economic matters (3l) and Delisle Worrell, Governor of the Central Bank (4l)

BU has defended the need for the Central Bank of Barbados to zealously guard its reputation.  The Governor of the Central Bank has suffered from the tongues of fellow economists Owen Arthur and Clyde Mascoll over his method of communicating on the economy. In light of the recent decision by the Central Bank of Barbados to depart from the trusted approach of using statistics produced by the Barbados Statistical Service (BSS) – in this instance the unemployment number – it has inflicted serious harm to its reputation.

In the current climate the decision has provided political fodder for the struggling Barbados Opposition Party to raise it’s voice. What we have in Barbados these days is smoke and mirrors politics. On the government side we are witnessing the distasteful promotion of the late David Thompson’s memory to deflect focus on its economic performance to date. On the side of the Opposition every opportunity to gain political mileage is being seized. The political scientists explain that this is Westminster politics at its brilliant best, others suggests the counter view that extraordinary times call for extraordinary action by our leaders; a no show to date.

The decision by the Central Bank of Barbados to report a lower unemployment figure to that of the BSS was mischievous to be generous in description. Whether the number is 11% as reported by the Central Bank after completing its additional research or the BSS’s 12.1 %,  the statistical methodology used by the  BSS number is a margin of error +/- 1.9%. The conclusion therefore is that the revised number by the Central Bank falls within the range of 12.1% +/- 1.9%. More and more very simple issues are becoming highly politicised at the expense of the national interest. The Governor using a modicum of commonsense should have anticipated how his decision to depart from the BSS reported number would confuse an already fickle political climate in Barbados. What value has the Central Bank’s decision lend to the economic performance of Barbados?

In the same way our import cover has taken a one week dip so too the reputation and integrity of the Central Bank. It must be said that an error in judgement by the Governor of the Central Bank in this instance could have been ameliorated if our media practitioners and  political animals would have taken the responsibility of apprising the public of the statistical possibility both numbers could be correct given the margin of error. Instead what we have witnessed since the economic 9-month review is smoke and mirrors stuff. The people like sheep assume party positions and in the midst of it all the truth of the matter is sacrificed at the altar of political expediency.

Could it be the Governor felt some political pressure to intervene given the political stakes?

127 responses to “The Politics Of Smoke And Mirrors Fuelled By 1.9% Margin Of Error”


  1. @millertheanunnaki

    I not privy to their book. What i do know is bl&p send a request to bntcl for quantities of fuel for future months. Bntcl then order these fuel thru petrotrin or Staatsolie. petrotrin or Staatsolie would set the price of fuels and hire oil tanker to transport. the ftc would then determine fca based on that shipment what the fca for the month will be. bl&p collect fca and pay to bntcl. the quarrel was never wit Bl&p as they don’t set the fca. It would be with bntcl and ftc as they provide the figure and work out the fca,


  2. Trained Economist
    Isn’t this the period just after the winter season and the christmas period, where most people find some work that runs into the easrly part of the year. Years ago, we used to call it the “hard time” Also June is the month many school leavers come on the job market or the unemployment list.


  3. @anthony: “the quarrel was never wit Bl&p as they don’t set the fca. It would be with bntcl and ftc as they provide the figure and work out the fca,

    Thank you.

    Now, how many really understand what that means?


  4. @The Scout: “Also June is the month many school leavers come on the job market or the unemployment list.

    Ummmm… Scout… It’s now past mid October….


  5. @christopher

    the argument is with central bank for reporting bogus figures.

    as for scout post it bout Q2 unemployment figures. technically may is normally degree completion time for bcc, uwi and sjpp certificates.


  6. @anthony…

    Thank for your clarification.

    I now understand why we’re talking six or nine months in the past.


  7. indeed. there is very little current reports that done in under a month of the data finish collection date, other than fx reserves. even that sometime lags 2-3 months


  8. @anthony…

    So then, can you tell us. What reports are available “real time”?

    Are we not always told we have to pay attention? 24/7/52?

    Or is that a lie? (This is a trick question.)


  9. @ david
    The truth = political mileage no?


  10. @enuff: “The truth = political mileage no?

    The truth does not equal political mileage.

    Are you actually making that claim?


  11. I think we all know that answer to that


  12. @anthony: “I think we all know that answer to that.

    Then answer the question.

  13. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ anthony:
    What we are able to conclude from your walk through of the process of acquisition and delivery of fuels for electricity generation is that that the FTC is immediately responsible for the calculation and approval of the monthly fuel adjustment figure seen on consumers’ bills and that the BL&P is just a conduit for the collection of this fuel charge. Is that what we can deduce from your descriptive analysis? If so, any quarrel with the high cost of electricity must lie with the BNTCL & the FTC. Then it is incumbent upon the PR gurus o fthe BL&P to make this abundantly clear to the consuming public. They should put out an ad in the various mass media to the following effect:
    “IT’S THE FAIR TRADING COMMISSION & THE GOVERNMENT WHO ARE TO BLAME FOR THE HIGH COST OF ELECTRICITY IN BARBADOS, YOU GET IT BAJANS!! LEAVE EMERA ALONE AND FIND ALTERNATIVE MEANS OF GENERATING ELECTRICITY OTHER THAN HEAVY RELIANCE ON IMPORTED FOSSIL-BASED FUELS!!”.
    But before you leave us, given your in-depth and well oiled commercial knowledge and understanding of the finished petroleum products business please drill down a bit and fill us in on the process involved in the importation and distribution of gasoline, diesel and aviation fuels (jet A1). You are aware that the BL&P uses a mix of fuels in their generating capacity to supply electricity. But our main concern is with the business relationships between the refinery and the marketing companies. Are there intermediaries between the refineries and BNTCL? It is understood that BNTCL will store and supply the local marketing companies (for a throughput fee). But what about the players at the export and import nodes of the supply chain? Who else is involved? Is it not the same marketers making a large profit further upstream at the acquisition point and oligopolistic control of the freighting and discharge ends of the transaction? YES or NO?


  14. @millertheanunnaki

    Then it is incumbent upon the PR gurus of the BL&P to make this abundantly clear to the consuming public. They should put out an ad in the various mass media to the following effect:

    They have but it is often ignored. http://www.blpc.com.bb/que_.cfm?cat_=Fuel%20Clause%20Adjustment they come under attack from politicians because they believe bl&p is an easy and it is but at least that part they innocent. Its easy for government to say it bl&p when it actual bntcl that raking in the money. lime used to make 2-3 times the profit bl&p did and they have way less revenue. now down to like 1.5 to 2 times the profit of bl&p but they get away with it and bl&p get drag thru the ground.

    all imports of gas, diesel, jet a1 go thru bntcl. They can then be distributed to major player in each market. when their tanker roll thru they fill up with gas , diesel, jeta1 etc. they then get the additives which make each brands blend different. normally to give a better burn and less corrosion on engine components. they then head of to gas station , crane, plane or anything else that may use it.

    the refinery and bntcl talk thru bntcl marketing department there are suppose to be no middle men but as with all thing government rules may be bypassed. bntcl then sells teaxco , sol and esso the gas/diesel/jet a1 they imported. at the export node bnoc leases a ship thru pj tanker in to transport the crude oil to petrotrin. on the import side it would be petrotrin or Staatsolie who decide on the ship to transport gas, diesel, jet a1, heavy fuel oil etc. this would be include in the price quote fro bntcl for the products. the major oil companies don’t normally control the freighting cost as it is petrotin and Staatsolie who deal with it. at the consumer point actually oil companies gross revenue is like under 10%. fuel cost is near 40-50% . 30-40% is taxes. dealer make 6% freighting take the rest. government take the most money here,

    @Christopher none


  15. @ TRAINED ECONOMIST & SCOUT

    Scout thanks for drawing to Trained economist attention, the answer to the riddle he tried to creae. As a trained economist it boggles the mind that someone using this sobriquet to suggest that he knows what he is talking about, could fail to work that out. I came on and went to put the same reasons, as it occurred to me as a lay person, but Scout you had it done. Yes employment is higher during the winter Dec – Mar in tourism industry, masking the impact of the unemployed school leavers, joined by a fresh batch in June.


  16. HOW long are we going to have to put up with the Dangerous Leaders Party ???


  17. When the dust is settled will the BSS still be regarded as the primary source?


  18. BSS is still the only source by law at least for unemployment.

    unstats.un.org/unsd/dnss/docViewer.aspx?docID=1678

    http://unstats.un.org/unsd/dnss/docViewer.aspx?docID=534#start

    The “Central Bank Act, 1972” requires the Central Bank of Barbados to collect information on financial and economic conditions in Barbados and elsewhere. Data include:
    o Assets and liabilities of financial institutions
    o Loans by maturity and sectoral distribution
    o Deposits by maturity and depositor
    o Purchase and sales of foreign exchange
    o Central Bank statement of accounts and deposit liabilities
    o Annual report
    o Annual balance of payments

    Questioning unemployment stat it not part of central bank job. If bss is sure of their analysis which does change then their figure stand. Fact of the matter is CBB is using the previous result as base then adding to their reported figure. So i one hand their figure are right and next their figure are wrong. If BSS had reported unemployment at 8% cbb would have never gone to check on the figures. The fact of the matter is all BSS unemployment survey are done the same and the data can’t be change. CBB can do what it want in checking unemployment since their is no set scientific method


  19. @ DAVID

    It is remarkable this thread is still running on “FOSSIL FUEL” – (no pun intended) given the technology we have available to us today (as one commentator cited) in “WIND FARMS”; SOLAR TECH; GEOTHERMAL and other emerging renewables which would release us from the stranglehold of “TRINI” oil (which is controlled by a devilish “CARTEL”) dead-set on holding us over a barrel while they extort, pilfer and rape the average consumer with exorbitant and extravagant fuel bills…

    If we do not hold our elected officials to account is it any wonder that “MONOPOLY” organizations like the BARBADOS LIGHT & POWER will continue in their “Ménage à Trois” with the OIL CARTERL & GOVERNMENT???

    We can talk all day long but nothing will change until “CITIZEN POWER” awaken these “dossey bastards” to the reality that “ENOUGH IS ENOUGH”…

  20. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Anthony:

    One last follow up question to this whole fuel supply chain. Payments? It is known that the BNTCL is not involved in the LPG import trading cycle.

    But who pays the Trinidad refinery for the other imported finished products (including Jet A1)? Does the BNTCL apply to the Central bank for permission to buy US $ to pay the Trinidad and Suriname suppliers. A closer examination of the payment cycle might reveal greater involvement of the marketing players in the forex aspect than you might care to discuss.


  21. Here in Britain, research findings by imminent professor John Hill looking at this question of “BRITISH FAMILIES” who are either struggling to “EAT or HEAT” their homes has become a major cause of concern as it has been discovered that there are actually people “DYING” because they cannot heat their homes…

    In the research document (not yet published) “PERSPECTIVES ON FUEL POVERTY” shows that another almost 900, 000 people have been pushed into “FUEL POVERTY” and cannot pay for GAS* or ELECTRICITY* because they do not have the monies to do so…

    This number added to an existing 7 million households who are either in “ARREARS” on their bills for more than [6] months; cannot top up their pay as you go gas & electric meters; or simply do not have any monies at all to heat, or cook…

    JUST IMAGINE ALL THIS IN A PROSPEROUS 1ST WORLD COUNTRY!!!

    This FOLKS* is what being held over a barrel ultimately creates…

    It is easy to IGNORE* the problems others face especially when we are warm and “cushy” but as the PUBLIC NOTICE I posted earlier infers – “THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IS ABOUT TO BE TURNED OFF”…


  22. As they are always buying fuel i don’t think they need to go to central bank for permission every month. they may finance either thru buying thru cbb or banks or fx exchange player. retain fuel import are on H6 part2 import from trinidad are on h8 from cbb website. as you can see we get most of fuel from there,

  23. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ anthony:
    I think (I might be wrong!) that you are being a wee disingenuous in your response. From what I gather from your response the BNTCL pays for all fuel imports using forex available in the local banking system. The bulk of Jet A1 (the small balance is used by BL&P and as kerosine for local consumption) is used in the aviation business and sold to the int’l air carriers. How is the BNTCL able to pay the refinery for aviation fuel not consumed in Barbados? Do the marketing companies at the airport repatriate the US$ denominated sales proceeds to their Barbados bank accounts to cover the forex required to pay the refinery for the aviation fuels?


  24. @TMB: “It is remarkable this thread is still running on “FOSSIL FUEL” – (no pun intended) given the technology we have available to us today (as one commentator cited) in “WIND FARMS”; SOLAR TECH; GEOTHERMAL and other emerging renewables which would release us from the stranglehold of “TRINI” oil (which is controlled by a devilish “CARTEL”) dead-set on holding us over a barrel while they extort, pilfer and rape the average consumer with exorbitant and extravagant fuel bills…

    And please let us not forget… BL&P have been asking to be allowed to build (and pay for) a wind farm for something like five years.

    For some reason, Town and Country Planning (read: the GoB) have not given the required approval…

    It is claimed that the residents nearby don’t want a wind farm “in their back yard”, and yet I suspect they the next minute complain about the high cost of electricity.

    Personally, I find wind farms to be beautiful.

    Kinetic art….

  25. Carson C. Cadogan Avatar
    Carson C. Cadogan

    CHRIS

    “Personally, I find wind farms to be beautiful.”

    Why don’t ask BL&P to put one next to your house?


  26. @CCC: “Why don’t ask BL&P to put one next to your house?

    That’s interesting…

    It is on the record that one of the participants at the BL&P Rate Hearing offered to have a windmill in his own back yard.

    He was shouted back with laughter: “You would have to get approval from Town Planning!!!

    He answered: “OK. They are free to visit any time they like.

    It is on the official record.

    It never happened….


  27. @All… Sorry, additional clarity needed…

    The visit by Town [and Country] Planning never happened (to the best of my knowledge).

    The invitation by the individual to place the base of a windmill in his immediate backyard absolutely happened. It’s in the transcripts.


  28. @millertheanunnaki

    What you mean how they pay for it ? Esso,sol,texaco charge the airlines in. Us at sale price. They then pay bntcl in us from the airline payment. Bntcl imports all jeta1 fuel even the set for airlines.this is real fx they get also they may earn some from if cruise ships need fueling up. All other customer pay in bds. They will always be losing fx since we don’t produce enought oil to be self sufficent


  29. @ Carson Cadogan
    That response to Chris had me dying………lol
    @ Chris
    Carson said windFARM not windMILL.


  30. The bottomline is we have to take some decisions with respect to developing alternative energy to reduce fossil fuel dependence.

    This is a serious discussion which we need to have.

    President of the BCCI has come out recently to advise that if Barbados is to generate the 29% energy by 2025 then wind will have to play a heavy part, it cannot be done by solar alone.

    Scoff all we want the sustainability of Barbados rides on taking this matter seriously.


  31. @enuff: “Carson said windFARM not windMILL.

    And what is the aggregate of a many windmills?

    Well, duh… A wind farm…

    It is interesting to note that Barbados used to be covered by windmills. Many of the bases can still be seen today.

    So then I must ask: why do we not have any active windmills today?


  32. @ david
    I am not scoffing after all after all I am a proponent of alternative energy, but the way Carson said it was funny. Btw CSME aint full of oil and gas too?


  33. we still have 1 active sugar mill chris.

    @david

    actually if you wanted by next year we could have 29% it would be costly. easiest way to do it is all solar too.

  34. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ anthony:
    Your description of the trading cycle of the Jet A1for the airline business needs to be reviewed. What are you telling us, man! That the proceeds from the sale of aviation fuel to BA, Virgin Atlantic, AA, Air Canada, etc, find their way back into the local banking system in US$?
    Say that is the case, then?


  35. @anthony: “we still have 1 active sugar mill chris.

    Yes. I know this.

    Is it powered by wind is the current question.


  36. From last report it was still powered by the wind.


  37. @Anthony

    Are you saying Andy Armstrong and the BCCI is misleading the people?


  38. @anthony: “From last report it was still powered by the wind.

    I call bovine excrement.

    Please prove me wrong.

  39. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ anthony:
    Are you saying that Lowdown sugar mill gets it electricity generation from wind energy? If so, this will be great news. Lowdown can then hook up to the BL&P grid and sell it (like goat and cow milk) as a source of clean energy all year round, provided it is windy, of course. But the methane expelled by way of bovine excrement (CH’s phrase) might cancel out any gains to a clean environment produced by the windmill.


  40. Wind farms are cost effective producers of electricity but how do they stand up to tropical storms or hurricanes?


  41. @Hants: “Wind farms are cost effective producers of electricity but how do they stand up to tropical storms or hurricanes?

    They turn their blades into the wind and turn their brakes on.

    A counter question: How do engines just above sea level protect themselves when they suddenly find themselves under water?


  42. @christopher
    http://www.nationnews.com/articles/view/juicy-treat-at-morgan-lewis/ < last report i saw
    @millertheanunnaki
    the mill has no alternator so it cannot make electricity. it uses wind energy to drive the mill to crush the cane. purely mechanical operation only

    @david
    Yes. If we had the funds and massive solar outfitting project could be done in under a year to make the 29%. this would require logistical control the government has never show it could handle. would also drop unemployment to 2-3 % with all the personnel needed.


  43. @anthony: “the mill has no alternator so it cannot make electricity. it uses wind energy to drive the mill to crush the cane. purely mechanical operation only

    But the mill is doing work. By definition. Is it not?

    If the mill was attached to an alternator (or a generator) it could generate electricity.

    No?


  44. MillertheAnnunaki and Chris Halsall.
    I think you got it wrong. Lowdown is at Morgan Lewis next to the Bannister’s Morgan Lewis windmill. The windmill is a tourist attraction and produces electricity. I am not sure what they do with the electricity. Lowdown produces methane from a digester that is now fuelled with cow manure and previously with goat manure. Lowdown, on TV a few nights ago, maintained that there is no smell and he has not had to pay for cooking fuel for a few decades. Both Windmills and digesters have been proven to work in Barbados (some parts of barbados at least) and there are several Photovoltaic systems that are also reasonably efficient producers of electricity. No one has to tell the story of Solar Hot water systems. We are probably still the world leader in that.

    Tom Adams introduced the first large scale solar air conditioning systems in the region at two government buildings in Barbados, at great cost, over 3 decades ago. Unfortunately we were guinea pigs for the foreign produced systems which eventually both failed. If it were today’s world, we would be looking for infelicities there but as far as I am aware there was no hint of such at the time.

    Barbados can easily reach the target for alternative energy cover as anthony indicated. It will just take the will.


  45. I might be wrong about the electricity. I’ll have to check that out. The rest of the post above is correct.


  46. @Christopher Halsall

    Yes it does work :). If had a alternator/generator it could produce energy.

    @checkit out

    Far as i understand there is no alternator/generator at Morgan lewis. It is a purely mechanical operation. We are not currently the world leader in the technology of solar water heater.Maybe in the market penetration we are still leader but that about it. Real technological gain stop for about 10-20 year . Only recently have system move to vacuum tubes + more efficent collection material.


  47. @Checkit-Out: “Tom Adams introduced the first large scale solar air conditioning systems in the region at two government buildings in Barbados, at great cost, over 3 decades ago.

    Care to elaborate?

    Was it an absorptive AC system?

    Or a PV powered exportation system?


  48. Chris Halsall; re your above post and question about the type of AC system; I don’t have a clue and I don’t have the energy to try to find out. They both had huge underground water tanks and there were no PV panels as far as I am aware. The panels covering a very large roof were not PV types. There were therefore probably absorptive AC systems but I’m only guessing. They were both avant garde systems at the time. One worked for several years but eventually conked out. The other one only worked for a short time.

  49. millertheanunnaki Avatar
    millertheanunnaki

    @ Checkit-out:
    Tom Adams was way ahead of his time when it comes to alternative energy solutions. Tom realised the negative economic effects high oil prices can have on small, open, non-oil producing states like Barbados. Although his rise to power might have resulted from the economic set backs occasioned by the oil crisis in the early 1970’s, he still had the foresight to introduce strategies that could mitigate the economic negative effects from future sudden spikes in oil prices. In addition to the early move to exploit the hydrocarbon resources offshore of Barbados, he was a keen and avid supporter of alternative energy technologies involving solar (hence the massive push of solar water heating systems), wind and even wave energy systems on the East Coast. It’s a pity that those who followed did not continue with the blue prints. The solar system at the building housing the Ministry of Agriculture was allowed to go into disrepair because of ignorance from the political directorate and bureaucratic shortsightedness.


  50. Chris Halsall; Dr. Clarke, the Energy Specialist, would almost certainly be able to help you re. your questions about the old Solar Air conditioning systems. One was at the Government Laboratory at Culloden Road and one was at the Ministry of Agriculture Headquarters at Graeme Hall, Christ Church.

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