Press statement from an official at the Ministry of Finance

.

Chris Sinckler, Minister of Finance

The recent decision by Moody’s to adjust Barbados’ domestic Credit rating downward coming as it is just weeks after Standard and Poors using the same information issued a review holding the country’s rating, is both disappointing and surprising.

Disappointing from the perspective that while it recognises the country’s efforts at fiscal consolidation as evidence by the initiatives taken as late as the last budget and more recently in the expenditure restraints in the 2011-12 estimates, it does not sufficiently credit these efforts in the government’s quest to reduce its fiscal deficit and ease debt burden over the medium to long term.

Equally, it is surprising because while correctly holding the foreign debt rating, it curiously ignores the very strong and liquid domestic capital market situation to claim that the system might be unable to support government’s requirements over the short to medium term.

This is clearly a speculative and unnecessary rush to judgment. The evidence is in fact to the contrary. Indeed not only have Government Instruments been eagerly accessed, but consistently oversubscribed. More importantly, the amortization profile for Government’s domestic debt portfolio is relatively smooth, with maturities mostly at the longer end of the maturity spectrum, which aids in ensuring that the domestic debt-service burden is not too onerous.

With this in mind, our government remains focus and committed to working our way out of this tough recessionary period without unraveling the social fabric and economic stability of the country by instituting unnecessary and unreasonable measures that wipe out the social gains of the country and jeopardise the clear signs of recovering which have begun to emerge in the local economy over the last few quarters and that we expect over the course of the rest of 2011. All Barbados must remain focused.

121 responses to “All Barbados Must Remain Focused In The Face Of Moody's Downgrade”


  1. One of the factors feeding this debate, and rightly so, is the perceived and/or lack of talent in the economic and financial discipline. Is this something PM Stuart should seek to address?

  2. Trained Economist Avatar
    Trained Economist

    How easily we ignore the fact that any barbados government is well served by a competent set of technocrats.


  3. @Trained Economist: “How easily we ignore the fact that any barbados government is well served by a competent set of technocrats.

    Might we have their names and e-mail addresses?

    Or must we simply “trust” that this is true?


  4. @ Trained Economist

    It is also a fact that the Titanic was well served by a competent set of able seamen and bridge crew, that however did not stop the mighty ship from plunging to the depths of the ocean floor.


  5. Ah tole yuh so does not help. We in nothing but crap. Standard and Poors downgraded us just above junk ever since, so it was not positive, the only good thing is there ws no further downgrade. Moody only now join them. The problem is that the outlook is no longer stable it is at negative. You are where you are but the problem is where are yuh going. Sinckler now want to call the S&P and Moody’s liars. S + P look at all his ‘wonderful news’ and did not shift it from above junk, it was not upgraded, so stop getting on like S & P is a positive and Moody is a negative. Status just above junk is not a position of congratulation. It means neither buy the ‘glad tidings’ offered by the Minister or the governor. They have temporised stating that if those things are true then some improvement will occur and when they see it, then they will change the grade. Despite all the nice talk in the report it did not shift the rating to a positive one. Next question, what de hell we gine do especially with a negative outloook?


  6. What we have here in Barbados Ladies & Gentlemen is a pretend Government.


  7. pretend to know what to do
    pretend to be doing something
    pretend to be achieving something
    pretend to be a Prime Minister
    pretend to reshuffle the Cabinet
    pretend to make Kelly a Minister
    pretend to be a settled administration
    pretend to be getting a second term
    pretend all the balme belongs to the civil servants
    pretend to no to have to cut wages and lay-off civil servants


  8. What lack of talent BU. The same people who advised Owen are the same people who advising sinckler now.. Some of the world’s top economists who were advising Obama ran and left him after giving all of the “best” advice they could muster…….lol. The reality BU is that none of these so-called brilliant economist could read the duration, reach and full impact of this recession. They simply could not.; Some said do stimulus, others say don’t. So say cut taxes others say don’t; some say contract more debt others say cut borrowing.

    Confusion all round. The big stimulus packages ent work nor the little ones either. The heavy taxation ent work nor the heave expenditure cuts neither. In Barbados the opposition has been all over the plate in this recession. First Owen say do a massive stimulus package. then he yuh got to cut expenditure deep but dont send home nobody. Then last year in the budget he say stop minding the IMF and the ratings agencies and forget bout debt and deficit. Now he in the paper saying that he would have left the economy alone last year and let the growth which it was beginning to getting deal with the deficit. Of course he conveniently forgot that both he and his side kick Mascoll were spending all of the last six months trying to prove that the Barbados economy has not grown. So what growth it is now that he talking about that would have taken care of the deficit. Unbelievable.


  9. @BU.David… It might be worth a Blog on the impact of Barbados having to decouple the Bajan dollar from the US dollar.

    “Hyper-inflation” would be a horrible thing to see.

    But it is not out of the realm of possibilities based on how dependent we are on foreign interests for just about everything we produce and consume….

  10. Charles Knighton Avatar
    Charles Knighton

    Nickle Night | June 15, 2011 at 4:41 PM |

    Yuh talking bout de song “Oh what a great pretender?” LOLLLLL


  11. @ Christopher Halsall | June 15, 2011 at 4:15 PM |

    Jesus Chris’ Chris … Haha ha ha .. Wait you developing a sense of humor all of a sudden …!

    @ weary baje | June 15, 2011 at 8:43 AM |

    Shhhhhhhhhhh …. You talkin’ too loud!

    @ George

    But George, surely you understand that Ba’bados needs generators of foreign exchange not academic advisers …!


  12. @Little Angel et al…

    This might come across to you as a bit of a surprise, but most here don’t care about B or D, A or K, or even F or C.

    We want to get on with our lives, knowing that we have a reasonably good chance of dying with what we have honestly earned in our pockets in order to give it to our children and grandchildren in our wills.

    The fundamental questions we ask is: “Why can we not get straight answers to our honest questions from those we elected to protect our interests?


  13. @ Peter Pan | June 15, 2011 at 11:29 AM |

    Adrian Clarke for Calypso Monarch


  14. The PM recently in London stated that most Barbadian heads are above water, or words to that effect.
    What he failed to state is that our head are seen above water for the third time. We are sinking rapidly.
    Its time to call Time Out. Let the other lot throw us a life line…for 2013


  15. Imagine a Government approve a joint-venture project with Bjerkham at Coverley to build the future slums of Barbados and ain’t got water for the development. Hundreds of millions of dollars spent and them ain’t know where the hell them going to get water to service the houses.

    On the bright side for the project, the developers don’t need to get water for all 1,000 plus houses given them only get 20 houses sold and can’t get anyone to buy the rest.

    I want bajans to go up there en masse and have a look-see as we would say. The houses 10 feet apart and a homeowner gotta give his neighbour a right-of-way over his land to allow that neighbour to get into his driveway and garage.

    A social dissaster in the making, an idiotic and ill-conceived foreign development plan thrusted upon the lanscape of Barbados in the name of progress. I have never see something so horrible in all my life.


  16. This government was heading for big trouble long time, I was worried when early in the year I heard Min Suckoo say Barbados is going to experience negative growth this year, then suddenly Min Sinckler and the Central Bank Gov. Mr Worrel declares a positive growth, next came the news we’re out of the recession, to me these things happened too fast. While things might not be any worse than it was in 2010, this government have some massive financial issues to solve, namely. 3S, Al Barrack, and now Lagan.plus the Clico matter Coupled with this is the increase in the cabinet, that is already bursting at its seams, now negotiations with the Civil Service over increase in salaries, already overdue by a year. How can this government lay-off civil servants while they increase their cabinet? Will they use a last comew first go method? then many party supporters who were
    brought on after elections would be the first to go, plus any government who tinker with the civil service is signing their dooms book for elections in the next general. I’ve stated before, if this government was serious of reducing the countries deficit, in a show of good will, the government M.P’s could have accepted a cut in their salaries and invite the opposition to do likewise, what happened is they kept dividing a fatted calf that had to get small at some time. How can they now tell the NUPW/BWU their members not only wouldn’t get increases but some must go home, when only a few weeks ago Min Sinckler was boosting about positive growth and government increasing its cabinet? This reminds me of former P.M Sandiford increasing a few people’s salkaries and almost immediately afterwards, telling the nation civil servants will have to take a 8% cut or face devaluation. We are looking down the devaluation barrel again and things don’t look good; let me sate now ” if we slip, we’re now going to slid, we’re going to freefall,” God forbid. All the hard work our ancestors put in will go in vain because of bad governance


  17. @Nickle |NIght
    I had a look round Coverley and felt the same way. Really unbelivable the way we are expected to live – the houses inches from each other, like the City of God, or temporary Chinese Earthquake Relief housing.


  18. “at Coverley to build the future slums of Barbados” Nickle nightie an Jeffere\y eff wunna can see dis wha happen to de rest of Barbados? Dem really feel dat Black people stupid and we must live like sardines in a can. Dem really tekking we back to de middle passage.

  19. George C. Brathwaite Avatar
    George C. Brathwaite

    @BAFBFB

    I assure you my dear friend, that you have underestimated the role of academics and academia. Since 2008 and returning in 2012, I work with a group from another university that spend one month in Barbados. Can you imagine the $US they bring and spend from accommodation, travelling, food, entertainment. What about conferences hosted in Barbados? What about persons who travel this region and further abroad as consultants? What about the many other academic groups that come here either as part of programmes at UWI or any other of the academic institutions? Please, I beg of you not to be myopic, and please do not make the error of casting the academic input aside. It is one thing to be critical or to suggest that more can be done; but it is mischievous and reckless to even suggest that academics or the academic institutions do not earn foreign exchange. Stop looking at shadows and search for substance my friend.


  20. I got news for all of you, another 2000 of these same “zero-line” houses are earmaked to be constructed at Bushy Park, in St. Philip. From my driving around and seeing the many that have been constructed all over barbados, most are still unoccupied for over 18months to two years, yet this government is still building more. I understand it is a private/government project, somebody in government is getting fat off the construction of these houses. What will happen if/when there are no buyers? are we going to plough them up and plant food? I thought the Hardwood Project was a scandal but this Precast Concrete Project will be the scandal of all scandals.


  21. @ George

    I have given you an ear. If you can refute the following sentence I will give you my other ear. The sentence is :- it was academics who got us into this mess in the first place …!

    It is academics who are forcing the region down an unsustainable “services provider” path. I t is academics who after decades of fashioning the opinions of the general masses into one that will only accept the product of academia as being electable, will not admit that they have failed miserable in defending the interests of the same masses.

    Look George, if on your return you can attract millions of dollars/pounds in visitor spending, or at least more than the amount that your overseas trips are bound to cost our foreign reserves, well then I may very well support your cause, no matter what it is …!


  22. @Chris

    We discussed the issue of maintaining currency peg on an earlier blog:

    Maintaining Currency Stability In A Small Open Economy

    If it is one thing the macro-economists agree on is that currencies will depreciate, there is nothing a government through its agents the Central Banks can do about it. Countries respond to the challenge of managing the volatility of depreciating currencies in mainly two ways, a free floating exchange rate e.g. the USA and the dollar, and secondly share a common currency e.g. the EC and the Euro or the OECS and the EC dollar. A similar option to sharing currencies is to adopt a major currency e.g. Barbados adopting the US dollar. The Barbados dollar has been pegged to the US dollar since 1975.

    Full Blog


  23. George Brathwaite has shared this document a which he believes gives cause for sober reflection.


  24. Can you imagine Ba’bados sharing the same currency as the OECS …? WHAT … WUNNA MAD? An’ sen’ home all dem academics in the Central Bank?


  25. Not to mention give up the Ministry of Finance and Economic affairs, Minister and all to the likes of Gonsalves and Spencer …WUNNA MAD …? 🙂


  26. @BU.David: “We discussed the issue of maintaining currency peg on an earlier blog…

    Quoting from said blog: “Key things to watch for with a pegged currency: the fortune of the country will rise and fall based on the performance of the country to which its currency is pegged and the country will have to manage and dedicate its monetary policy policy to supporting the exchange rate.

    Hmmm…

    Please note that the US of A is currently “printing money” to support its economy.

    Please note that the US of A is having to go to Congress to increase its “debt ceiling” (currently $14.3 TRILLION (that’s a T, not a B) dollars).

    Hmmm…

    No wonder this graph looks like this…. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=CADUSD=X&t=2y


  27. @Chris

    What are you saying, Barbados should peg to the CAD?

    There is volatility in all currencies no?


  28. This may be the best opportunity yet for the PM to change the Minister of Finance, if he indeed wants to do so.


  29. @David: “What are you saying, Barbados should peg to the CAD?

    What I am saying, David, is that perhaps the BBD should no longer be pegged to any currency which constrains our ability to make our own fiscal decisions.

    Do please keep in mind that many believe that the “green back” will soon (read: within 10 to 15 years) no longer be the predominate world currency….

  30. smooth chocolate Avatar
    smooth chocolate

    @Nickle Night | June 15, 2011 at 5:16 PM |
    i know bajans are desperate for houses, i am too but when i see the stupidity of the layout at coverley, bow my head in shame to think that the NHC has let down those that really needed affordable housing. my application is over 12 yrs old. i go every once in a while and update etc. i was promised one at coverley. 7 mths later, i saw the properties being advertised under the auspices of NHC and Jada with the price starting at a 2-bedroom for $289,000. When i was offered the house, a 3-bedroom wall structure was being sold for $145,000. i had to forget it not only that when i saw that Jada was involved, i was convinced that i wanted nothing to do with the houses, i’ve heard of too many complaints about them.


  31. Man David you always talking to autistic people … You don’ talk to me at all!

    That full blog that you referred to pass by so fast … I remember the article as if it were written yesterday. I am more worried about the speed of time passing these past few years than any currency devaluation. It seems just yesterday that I was forty years old…!

  32. William Skinner Avatar
    William Skinner

    This government found $750,000,000 in over runs. For the entire recession no notable lay offs in the public sector. No major disruptions in the delivery of services to the poor and vulnerable. No hint of corruption. No Prime Minister insulting the citizens with distasteful/muscular language. Bold attempts to clean up immigration and health issues.Attempts to encourage competitive intra regional travel ,re: RedJet. A new and progressive social partnership and a housing minister who now tries to build houses instead of $500,000.00 beach toilets.Yet we are apparently seeing nothing but attempts to gain cheap political power and ruthless ambition to pull the country down. It certainly boggles the mind that we are listening to those who a short while ago was selling out Barbados lock stock and barrell.

  33. Trained Economist Avatar
    Trained Economist

    Standard and Poors has just released their review of the Barbados economy and they take a quite different view from Moody’s.


  34. I have been trying to digest the Moody’s opinion. There is absolutely no evidence of a tightening of domestic credit conditions. Government bond issues have been consistently oversubscribed. This opinion seems an irresponsible rush to judgement.


  35. “One of the key sticking points in both the Air Canada and Canada Post strikes is pensions, an issue that experts say is going to take on more prominence for Canadians in the near future.

    With more Canadians facing retirement age, many corporate pension plans are strained, and some have massive shortfalls because of the recession.

    Air Canada says it has a $2.1-billion pension shortfall, and the company “


  36. @The Scout & Islandgal246,

    I is a Bajan. Me an my family live in a townhouse with only a front yard and a shared driveway.
    What is good enough for me is good enough for the residents of Coverly.

    Wunna dat have de privilage of living in houses on half acre should not cry down de guvment effort to house Bajans.

    Wunna mauby pockets gine start leakun jus now.lol


  37. Standard and Poors report: Barbados is stable

    2011-06-15

    by Shawn Cumberbatch

    The frowns on the faces of Barbados’ economic stewards have been partly transformed into smiles within the space of a day.

    International rating agency Standard & Poors today affirmed its stable outlook for Barbados and maintained its BBB- rating for the island, two days after New York competitor Moody’s Investors Service downgraded the country’s domestic currency rating and accorded Barbados an overall negative outlook.

    S&P’s Primary Credit Analyst, Olga Kalinina, this afternoon confirmed to Barbados TODAY that her institution was maintaining its stance on Barbados and that the full report outlining why this was so had been released only today.

    “The short answer is we have a stable outlook on our BBB- rating,” she said.

    A copy of the report provided by Kalinina suggested there had been no significant change in Barbados economic performance and outlook to warrant a downgrade on its part.

    It, added, however that the island was not completely out of the woods, and a lot would hinge on its continued management of the fiscal deficit, debt, economic growth this year and beyond, and the performance of key markets for investments and tourists.

    “The stable outlook hinges on our expectations that the economic rebound will continue, which will help revenue collection, and that the external accounts will remain stable,” the 21-page report said.

    “Erosion of the external balance sheet, including that related to a deterioration in the fiscal trend, could lead to pressure on the currency peg. If this were to occur, we would consider lowering our ratings on Barbados.

    “Conversely, we would consider raising the ratings if the country’s economic prospects strengthen in a sustainable manner or if fiscal accounts show structural improvement,” it added.

    Moody’s said it had downgraded Barbados and given it a negative outlook mainly due to its concern about its high debt and management of the same.

    “Moody’s increasing concerns about the capacity of the domestic market to continue to absorb the elevated levels of government debt issuance at the same time that the country’s already large current account deficit is expected to increase further due to the recent rise in oil prices,” it said on Monday.

    “Our view that the government’s debt ratios are likely to deteriorate further over the next 12 to 18 months to levels that are no longer consistent with an investment grade rating given the small size and limited diversification of Barbados’ economy,” it added.

    But S&P, while also having debt concerns, was more positive, saying “assuming a gradual pick-up in economic activity and fiscal tightening” it expected current government debt of at least 56 per cent of GDP to “stabilise at this level until 2012 before subsiding in 2013 and on”.

    “On a positive note, the structure of the debt remains stable and favourable, with external debt accounting for about 30 per cent of gross central government debt, roughly the same level of the past eight years. Official debt constituted about 45 per cent of total external debt at year-end 2010. On the domestic side, 23 per cent of debt is short term, and the NIS and the Central Bank hold 34 per cent of total domestic debt. This ratio has also been relatively stable,” it stated.

    “The liquid NIS and financial institutions, lacking diversified investment options, create a favourable (for the Government) captive market for the Government papers.”

    On the negative side, however, S&P said “the servicing of the debt as measured by interest/revenues is becoming more expensive — not only because of the lower revenues in the past two years but also because of the expensive financial leases”, and it projected that “the general government interest cost will be 12 per cent of general government revenues in 2011, up from eight per cent in 2007”.

    “The Government plans to source its financing from predominantly domestic sources (NIS and local financial institutions). The relations with the official creditors are good. The IDB disbursed US$45 million to support alternative energy production last year,” it noted.

    “The CDB disbursed its US$25 million single-tranche policy-based loan to Barbados in 2010. The second policy-based loan is under review. Additional funds from multilateral institutions are also expected this year. The amortisation profile is smooth. The next external bond (US$80 million) amortises beginning in May 2011 and matures in 2014.” shawncumberbatch@barbadostoday.bb

    http://news.barbadostoday.bb/barticlenew.php?ptitle=Standard%20and%20Poors%20report:%20Barbados%20is%20stable&article=7101


  38. Comments on UWI’s Michael Howards’s position?

    http://www.nationnews.com/articles/view/give-us-the-facts/


  39. Per se we cannot fault those who think that Moody’s judgement has been rushed.

    However, to me the critical issue is not just the Barbados economy, as no economy operates in a vacuum.

    As I said already, Greece is a hair’s breath away from defaulting on its sovereign debt and Portugal not far behind

    This will put a shock into the markets and into the EU resources.

    Then, the US economy has not recovered as expected many, alebit there were those of us few skeptical. The US economy is showing signs of further trouble and as I said this is not temporary, it is systemic.

    Therefore, to mollify those who think that Moody’s was irresponsible, then Moddy’s statement should have included a caveat that their judgement was because Barbados is not alone and is dependent on international economcies which are themselves faltering and in deep trouble.

    No?

    On Professor Howard’s approach, I agree. To be sustainable one needs to procduce and export, after all, that is what already has the USA in deep trouble, it lost its industrial base, imported everything from China and Japan and is now facing the reality of having to rebuild its industrial base, at least to some extent.

    There is no way around it, that earning power, earning internaitonal currency, is what one needs for sustainability.

    Some attack Government’s fical measures e.g. VAT etc. But ultimately one needs to earn what one spends, as is now the huge issue in Greecem where the people are having trouble accepting that Government there needs to implement austerity programmes to control the fiscal balance.

    At a time of recession, ideally you needs some foreign reserves to bolster your economy and fill in the blanks where private business has faltered.

    A number of us on these blogs raised this a few years ago, before the recession actually hit, concerning the high level of borrowing then, but were ignored.

    So, Professor Howard is right.


  40. What we ideally need now is more foreign investment in hotel plant, it will not be easy to arrange, but it is necessary to bring more chains to Barbados.

    Even if some argue that the Four Seasons issue has been a debacle, this is not because Four Seasons the chain is an issue, it is because the financing aspect of that project had some issues.

    So, chains like Ramada Inn , etc need to be brought.

    Can we see the former Sam Lords sold lock stock and barrel to an international chain?

    I would like to think so.

    Give them what they need, duty free concessions on infrastructure imports, casino licenses, anything within reason.

    We need more chains!


  41. Hants ……….”I is a Bajan. Me an my family live in a townhouse with only a front yard and a shared driveway.
    What is good enough for me is good enough for the residents of Coverly.”

    Have you seen these houses? ‘ I want you to look at them and compare them with what you living in now. You know you pretending, because got your father’s 40 acres to come home to. So what shoite yuh talking hey? Why don’t you sell your land and buy one of those houses?


  42. to skins- you are living in a fool’s paradise. no govt in living memory inherited a greater economic disaster than when the blp took office in 1991 and rater than moan and groan set about to restore the credibilty of barbados as a nation of pride and industry and with great success too. these mythical overruns and corrupt practices you speak of cann no longer be used to excuse the incompetence of the present bunch masquerading under the dlp banner. oh, how they must wish for a richie haynes.


  43. @ islandgal246

    Besides the other obvious problems with Coverley, the house are precast concrete. In other words the house are made from solid concrete panels made in a factory and which that should assist in both quality control and erection time, it will also cause the houses to retain heat for a longer period and the temprature inside the house will be hotter than a typical block wall house.

    These are little ovens and in the summer the people who are unfortunate enough to either own one or live in one will feel like a rotiserrie chicken.

    In my opinion the project is a disaster and the tax payers of this country are going to get saddled with the unsold units because the developer has enough sense and money to see to it that the risk for unsold units, and they will be many, is transferred onto the back of taxpayers in Barbados.


  44. @Rose Art | June 16, 2011 at 6:22 AM |

    I have an idea..Why don’t the politicians go and live in these Hot houses for six months? If they like living there, let them buy into Coverley and then perhaps others will follow. You think after all this time from slavery to present day we would want better for our people. It is the middle passage all over again.


  45. Am I wrong in thinking that Moody was raising concerns about the GOB using the NIS as a slush fund, seeing that the NIS hold most of the government investment instruments?
    Was that the intended purpose of the NIS?
    Here is how I see it,.. Barbadians are over taxed so government cant squeeze no more out of them, the NIS is full of money deducted from people hard earned wages so why not dip into that too. So what happen if this behavior leads to a complete erosion of the workers pensions? What happen then?
    The Moody report is just raising the red flag about what every concerned right thinking Barbadian have been talking about……the dealing and handling of the NIS, the great slush fund of government.


  46. The NHC was broke and the government engaged in a PPP, the previous government engaged in BOLTS which were attacked by many because we assumed debt off balance sheet and away from the glare of parliament. Both parties, same old thing, politics in Barbados. If the houses are not marketable people won’t buy them and the DLP will have to pay the price, time will tell. Bear in mind also the market is depressed and a significant financial commitment such as a mortgage will be adversely affected.

    Agree with Crusoe 100%, the external markets which we rely on heavily continue to be severely affected, government’s commitment to keep public servants employed will be sternly put to the test,. It is ironic the private sector, including the very profitable banks, have started to send home people. What an irony.


  47. @ David

    Have you been up to Coverley to see the project?


  48. I for one will walking Broad Street with a placard if and when this Administration agrees to take over and pay for the unsold houses remaining at Coverley on completion.

    On an unrelated matter can any of the legal eagles of BU tell me what is meant when someone is accused of misfeasance in public office? Is misfeasance and malfeasance the same thing?


  49. Have seen the houses and the government/Lashley will have to suffer the consequences if it flops. Bear in mind several hundred are planned for Bushy Park. Bizzy indicated the Six Roads project has stalled because of lack of water supply, it therefore begs the question – Wither the Bushy Park project?


  50. The water problems expected for the pending Bushy Park project is exactly the problems Coverley is suffering from, they don’t have a supply of water sufficient to service the development.

    Can anyone name one housing project started under this administration which is complete and people have moved into?

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