est. 2007

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Who Will Win The Next General Election In Barbados? ~ Peter Wickham (CADRES POLLSTER) To Reveal The Answer…

  Caribbean political analyst Peter Wickham noted, however, that in a situation where the PNP is leading by a statistically insignificant five percentage points, a long campaign could come back to haunt Miller. “By calling an early election, by setting the date seven weeks away, she has effectively surrendered one of the most effective tools…

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Caribbean political analyst Peter Wickham noted, however, that in a situation where the PNP is leading by a statistically insignificant five percentage points, a long campaign could come back to haunt Miller. “By calling an early election, by setting the date seven weeks away, she has effectively surrendered one of the most effective tools in the arsenal of the Westminster PM,” he continued, referring to the fact that the British system, which many Caribbean countries have adopted, allows the prime minister alone to name the date for a general election.

Source: The BostonBanner

peter_wickham_small_potrait Many people agree that the next general election in Barbados will be hotly contested for a number of reasons. We have a fourth term government which has been embroiled in one controversy after the next. There is Prime Minister Owen Arthur whose popularity has been on the decline in recent years; this drop in Arthur’s popularity is not good news for the Barbados Labour Party (BLP). Many of the BLP candidates owe a deep debt of gratitude to Arthur for their elevation to the Lower House and on becoming vested after 10 years to qualify for a government pension.

Many political pundits agree that there is always a tiredness which will visit fourth term governments.

Recently, Peter Wickham, political scientist and the brains behind CADRES, has been under severe public scrutiny because of his controversial comments. Let BU add that we commend Peter for not being timid, like some of his colleagues, about making his views known. However, we do agree with those who have formed the impression that Peter’s perspectives often appear to have a DLP bias. Having said that, we have to congratulate Peter on the accuracy of his polls to date. We were particularly proud of the comment which we have quoted above which turned out to be true about the outcome of the recent Jamaican election. As far as we can recollect, his polls have always been on the bulls-eye with the exception of the St. Lucia poll which we are prepared to accept was done at a time which would have made it difficult to accurately predict the outcome. Even if BU accept CADRES got it wrong, one out of several is not a bad record.

What does the future hold for the DLP and BLP?

Tomorrow (14 October 2007) the CADRES POLL will be published by the Nation Newspaper, its sponsor. There will be a discussion on Voice of Barbados (VOB) Sunday call-in morning program on the hot issues which pervade the political scene in Barbados. Tomorrow may well prove to be the ‘tipping point’ which determines the party to take the upper hand in the minds of electorate of Barbados. On this point, we have always had a concern about the influence which a poll can have on a voting population on the eve of any election. We have time for the view that a poll which is strategically crafted can greatly influence public opinion. We want to make this point because of our earlier observation that Peter has espoused strong anti-government rhetoric when he has had occasion to host several call-in programs in recent years. His obvious disgust with Clyde Mascoll has been a topic thoroughly discussed in Barbados.

BU household will be at church

Unfortunately, the BU household will be at church tomorrow at the time the VOB call-in program will be broadcasting.  We will have to rely on feedback to ascertain what transpired.  We get the feeling that the Democratic Labour Party has been slowly creating momentum, and they have gathered some steam with the breaking of the Hardwood story.  We think that they should be doing the same concerning the mismanagement of the flyover project. We have published previous stories about the political savvy of Prime Minister Owen Arthur.  There is a saying that one should not be in close proximity to a wounded tiger. We sense that the Prime Minister and his cohorts have engaged in defensive maneuvers for too long. With the election constitutionally due in less than a year they MUST go on the offensive in the near future.

Previous BU Stories

Prime Minister Arthur The Master Of Spin~Does Anyone Feel Dizzy?

David Thompson~Are You Ready?

 

70 responses to “Who Will Win The Next General Election In Barbados? ~ Peter Wickham (CADRES POLLSTER) To Reveal The Answer…”

  1. No Name Avatar
    No Name

    First and foremost the BLP have placed taxes on the wrong things. They have increased taxes on almost everything that impacts food and everday living costs.

    Were the truth known and that is where the problem lies, you do not seem to be able to get the truth in Barbados about anything. Much of what is being imported is not as people being led to believe out of sight in price at the source. Wholesale prices are competitive they have to be and when importers are buying in bulk they get many lower prices on different items. The thing is they are not being passed on to the customer.

    Barbados like all other Nations do, have to learn to keep inflation in check by watching spending, increasing the National Debt and having in place proper tax policies. You cannot exempt people from taxes especially wealthy ones then increase VAT to make up the difference or increase other taxes that impacts cost of living. That is dumb! Especially when you have no or little industry that can or will pay wages that takes into consideration the inflationary pressures of the economy. It is impossible

    But here is what needs to be looked at because no other country I know has an economy that functions like this.

    We are told the Barbados population is approximately 285,000.

    The other evening I mistakenly got involved with what only could be described as a popett by the name of Linchh on the “Margin” who claimed the number of people living in poverty in Barbados is 13,000. That is less than a 1/2 of 1 % of the population. Let us therefore turn our attention to the other and let us round it off to 99% of the population.

    Let us say that 40 % are living the good life. Have businesses, jobs, good salaries, Investments and all of the amenities of life. Many of whom are not paying one damn red cent in taxes. And I am sure that 40 % are not living this lifestyle. I am being generous here with my numbers.

    We now turn our attention to the so called masses or as some call them “invisible” people who make up 59 % of the population. We are told that the island of Barbados has an unemployment rate as I type this of 4% or less of the employable masses. These facts combined would suggest to the people who are in economics that Barbados is in great Financial shape and everybody is prospering.

    But that is not reflected in the voices of the masses who are crying out about high food costs that they cannot afford, cannot buy a house etc etc etc. Why is this because it is not supported by the numbers. Who then is lying and why with a less than 4 % unemployment number is so many claiming they cannot afford the high cost of living.

    High oil prices, increases in raw materials etc is relative as these things are impacting every country in the world not just Barbados. Therefore why are other people in other countries though seeing prices modestly increase to reflect inflation etc are not finding the cost of living as unbearable as in Barbados?

    It just does not add up. Maybe Arthur should be looking as I said to making those who are getting a free lunch and who do not need it to pay their fair share and reduce the taxes that impact consumer products. He should also look at the role Commission Agencies are playing in inflating costs along with price fixing and gouging.

  2. Makaveli Avatar
    Makaveli

    I have to agree again with the Canadian Tire example, from personal experience. I try not to compare Barbados to Canada too often it can be depressing….still have a stash of old Canadian tire money 🙂 , I don’t think it expires….does it?

    Oh god I’m reminiscing about Canada again, getting nostalgic, not good.

    C: format brain: /s

  3. A WISHFULL THINKING VOTER WHO WANTS A CHANGE FOR HONESTY IN GOV"T IS THERE SUCH A THING WITHIN THE BLP Avatar
    A WISHFULL THINKING VOTER WHO WANTS A CHANGE FOR HONESTY IN GOV”T IS THERE SUCH A THING WITHIN THE BLP

    As was posted on the BLP website trust you will give me room to post on yours as well.
    WOW this site is almost as hot as BFP and BU.
    I never thought that I would have seen views that are so anti gov’t on this site as they are.
    Is this just me being silly or are these cries indicative of the real issues in our island?
    What about this talk about corruption and dishonesty in Gov’t it seems to have some grounds for discussion as there seems to be a massive amount of money being overspent in every project that this gov’t has undertaken in the last five years each one seems to have suffered the same fate money being thrown at it with simply no accounting for these mega funding.
    Is there any truth to this story making the rounds that you Mr Arthur , Nicholls and Bannister held the countries builders to ransom by requesting a 7 % commission to be paid to you all for the awarding of the contract? I have this on good authority of a lawyer that this is the case if so you should all be ashamed of yourselves.
    This Road works contract why have you chosen to award it to a proven and known crook in ythe form of DANOS it is not a doubt but rather a know fact that he is guilty of fraud in operations in Jamaica in something called the Jamaica Kickback Agreement do we have a BARBADOS KICKBACK AGREEMENT in place here as well for you three to benefit from Mr Arthur?
    Why in both these massively awarded contracts are two companies that are before the law courcts in the two countries of their birth for charges ranging from corruption, fraud and bribery things that are all to familiar to you Mr Arthur and your gang of goons.
    Wealso understand that the West Coast Sewage Treatment project is held up because of yet another request for yet another commission payment to You Mr Arthur , Bannister and Nicholls should this be the case it is a disgrace to the Barbadian people to have work being delayed while you all fight for commissions.
    On the subject of fighting mr Arthur please ease up on Mottley before you drive into another biting frenzy, you really already scorned her by saying that ASSCOLL is behind you in the pecking order, if Mottley had an ounce of sense or decency she would put you out to dry and let you see how much help ASSCOLL would be to you, once she put you out to dry I would sit out the next election and return as leader of the BLP in your absence and lead the party to victory single handed.
    On the subject of ASSCOLL funny things are obviously taking place at HARDWOOD HOLDINGS and you seem powerless to do anything about them does this have anything to do with your own involvement and your own level of corruption ?
    We shall await your statement of intent to arrest the corruption and dishonesty of this Gov’t and put those behind bars that have stolen from us even if that includes you Mr Arthur we need things done to save this country from falling further into the mire and hell than it already is in.

  4. Makaveli Avatar
    Makaveli

    The current government’s interest in Commission Agencies might be tempered… we don’t know the effect on VAT collection…most of the business is on the import side…PM might content to smile while the middleman-ism gets attached to the final sticker price. Notice that in Canada a Finance Minister and a Prime Minister can, and are often TWO different people…they can disagree, argue, discuss etc.

  5. No Name Avatar
    No Name

    Another good point re PM and Finance minister. But I do not ever recall that happening in Canada over the past 50 years. That is not to say it did not happen.

    A number of people suggest not me that Lord Arthur had ulterior motives. He certainly has people who now claim they are competent and qualified to be Finance Minister but I see no sign of him relinquishing his dual roles.

    The big thing is that unless you have legislation in place that dictates transparency of a Government or inquiries into scandals etc you are merely spinning your wheels.

    Look at the present situation we talk talk talk and go round in circles and the Government is ignore everbody including Thompy and business in Bim goes on as usual.

    But here is my beef nobody of consequence gets up and says dick because it doesen’t matter to them but that is not a healthy Democracy!

    How can you call Bim a Democracy when a Minister of Labour goes on the public record (Nation News) and says he is bringing in Legislation that will penalize employers who hire “illegal” workers. But it will only go inte effect if the Social Parnership approves of it. Tell me man? talk to muh!

    Did Bajans elect the BLP to pass Legislation that serves their and their Nations best intersts or did they elect the Social Partnership to approve Legislation? It is a joke! It is all smoke and mirrors!

  6. No Name Avatar
    No Name

    Mack I am not really sure about CT money but were I a betting man I would say it is still good. I do not use it because I like to get travel points on my VISA.

    I would say that if the money you have does not say it “expires” on a specific date then it is good! Personally the way business is done I would be surprised that they would hassle you about it. UNLESS they have a specific date. But I don’t think they do because some people is keep it for a year or so until they want a big ticket item. I could be wrong but look at the money and see what it says.

    I like buying their tools and other specials. Like I just picked up yesterday two jugs of 4.4 litres of
    Castrol Syntec 5W 40 oil for summer use for $22 each that was a $17 saving on each. And that is with rising oil prices. That is what I mean. Do you see that happening very often in Bim?

    They will tell you man you musee mad as sh—–te you ent see de price eh oil an you hey askin me why my Castrol Syntec oil cant be reduced.

    But my beef is not just with high food costs in Bim. I am sure mechanics are paid no more than mechanics in North America and overhead in North America is as high or higher than the Caribbean. But people can get an oil, lube and filter for $19 or if they want premium oil $29. A major tune up on a 6 cylinder car using NGK plugs, a new air filter and gas filter is $200. And these are DEALER prices not corner shops!

    How in Gods name the boys in Bim can get away with the nonsense they talk is beyond me.

    A turkey that weighs 12 pounds and comes fully stuffed that feed 6 -8 easy is $16 . All you do is put it in the oven and that is a Butterball. And it sweet as a–s——not quite. If you can buy it at the retail level at that price what are producers selling at? Chicken dirt!

    In Buffalo the stores there give em away as incentives after you spend a modest sum of money or charge you chicken dirt for a big one. It is a promotion.

    That is why people from the Caribbean come up North America even the Big Ups to fill barrels
    but still do not see the light! I gone!

  7. Makaveli Avatar
    Makaveli

    I’m no economist, but if you increase customs duties on imports, and most of the goods consumed are imported, how can you decrease the overall tax burden?

    Agreed the burden would go up, but I never intended such a crude approach. Hence the need for a study, including a wholesale vs retail comparison/analysis.

    Speaking for all the B- students, B- students are people too; everybody can’t get a 4.0.

    Come on gimme a break there is a grand canyon of a gap of performance between 5Fs and 3 Ds; and a B- average. I’m not begging for miracles here. We could tolerate C- average mediocrity, I’m not trying to be despotic but 7years is much to long to be at CaveHill fulltime. Ask other caricom nationals how they feel about the fact we are all paid for at UWI and some bajan children piss the opportunity away, blame everyone else but themselves for poor performance. Ooo it was the lecturer’s fault, take responsibility for your life, please say it isn’t so…

    As for the whole degree issue has there ever been a survey done to determine the skills, manpower requirements for ummm lets say a 10-20 year national development plan….they try in a thing with the scholarships, but what is the big picture.
    Deafening silence.

    Also, if you’re going to a softer peg doesn’t that require that the prospects for the Bajan economy be more robust that the US?

    Ah the illusion of U.S economic robustness…I
    don’t want to end up with a dissertation .
    U.S quit being the largest producer two decades ago…the economy is supported by the world holding on to greenbacks, use to be because of oil, but with euros and other options available for the purchasing of oil that rational is losing traction. Nations like China and Japan are kinda locked in to a deadly little dance with the U.S. We’ll see how long they can tolerate their dollar reserves being devalued, how low do treasury yields have to go before they both pull the plug. How much money will it take to continue in Afganistan, Iraq and possible jump into Iran??
    Oh and just throwing this one out there subprime mortgages anyone?

    Barbados has problems, but don’t least count the lil rock for the grand ole US of A.

    IT would increase efficiency within the civil service, but then 50% of the civil service would be made redundant.

    Same old argument from previous revolutions in production and economics, i.e industrial revolution …didn’t turn out that bad after all.

    Here’s a trick question.what’s better.

    4% unemployment, with 20% of the labour force working to be broke….(don’t forget that the disillusioned ones that quit looking for jobs don’t count)

    Or a vicious lil piranha of an economy, even if it means 10-20% on the dole….comfortably on the dole. Full employment = great economy is a ridiculous assumption. Of course you can cram your civil service, and trust that the jobs produced there will offset the jobs lost in the private sector from diminished business due to bureaucracy and inefficiencies….good luck with that. Of course job number one is jobs…which is kinda like saying job number one is votes…don’t you think?

    Of course the above two examples are only to demonstrate a point, challenge a popular perspective. It is not intended to set up a false dichotomy…there are other options.

  8. No Name Avatar
    No Name

    Let us re-visit the subject of the CADRES Poll indicating a 5.5% swing AWAY from the BLP though showing that the people still favour PM Owen Arthur over Mr. David Thompson, leader of the Opposition.

    I want to re-visit the subject because in to-days Nation News the political writers and the editorial are again examining what the poll means.

    From my perspective this poll finding a 5.5 % swing away from the BLP means very little if anything that favours any of the three parties.

    When one reads the press and blogs of Barbados the only hot issues and these are in the Blogs more so, than in the mainstream press is the many allegations suggesting the BLP are corrupt. But to date the BLP Government has given little in the way of information nor has any concrete information been obtained to support the allegations. The people have only a “smoking” gun!

    As far as knowing the platforms of either party which is really the “meat” of any election and the main single component influencing how people will vote, I am still waiting. I get tired of reading every week Mr. Reudon Eversley’s column for the DLP and BORED at the nonsense Ezzra Alleyne writes about. These people cannot speak for either their leaders or party’s platform as none have been made public. The two of them are spin doctors talking the same old same old, week in and week out! “He said she said”.

    People want to know in clear and concise terms what is the Political Platforms of the BLP and DLP and they want to hear it from the leaders and their Candidates not a bunch of bloody spin doctors talking each week the same old same old. Until this happens polls mean dick. Especially a poll like what CADRE did. The timing of it was also spurious because the election has not been called and the people have not been told what the main party’s have to offer them!

    I could say that MAYBE this 5% swing was due to the intense coverage on Blogs dealing with the allegations of corruption against the BLP. And that opinion would be as credible as any. But think about this and were I David Thompson I would have seized the opportunity to pounce on it IMMEDIATELY and keep it in front of the electorate until the last vote is cast.

    What did this poll find that was far more important than showing that there was a 5.5% swing away from the BLP? It showed what were pi—–ing off the electorate. Who are the most important part of the puzzle. And that was THE PEOPLE WERE ALL OR MOST WERE DISATISFIED WITH THE HIGH COST OF LIVING IN BARBADOS. THEIR SECOND CONCERN WAS NOT BEING ABLE TO AFFORD HOUSING! READ THEIR LIPS AND ADDRESS THEIR CONCERNS. These issues can easily be fixed by either the BLP or DLP. All it takes is a little guts and few hard decisions. But I hear nothing from either camp about these issues or any of the other main ones. And I say until the people hear them, they will make no decision as to who they will vote for and therefore polls at this stage mean dick.

    You mark my word old Al Gilkes, the stupid like a fox Lord Arthur and his colleagues are all noting what the “Majority” wants and when they come out they will make it look like Santa Claus has come to Town early. And will sugar coat the concerns of the people so sweet that look out.

    I cannot figure out why the DLP sees it necessary to first wait for the election to be called before exploiting what the people are saying is their major concerns. Another “fatted” cow/calf whichever is appropriate speech is needed from David to update the people.

    I always say “strike when the iron is hot”.

  9. Wishing in Vain Avatar
    Wishing in Vain

    For what reason are we comparing the Leader of the H M Loyal Opposition Mr David Thompson to a drunk womaniser Owing See Thru Rum Arthur?
    When really the only reason is for Owing to carry this lame bunch into elections hopefully for him to win it for them and shortly thereafter to have him replaced as PM and head of the party.
    He is tired and he is making a lot of very bad decisions that are affecting all of us taxpayers, our public servants are constantly crying out for their wages from gov’t, they have been involved in cost overuns on every single project that they have touched, even at Oistin this work is behind schedule and over budget and now the BTIC is coming forward to pay the bills in the hope that it will finish, the PRISON three times over cost, the road works three times over cost, and where do you suppose these cost overruns are ending up ?
    In the bank accounts of the Owing’s the Nicholl’s the Bannister’s, the Shorey’s.
    Least we forget his deposit of his cheque for $ 750,000.00 to his PERSONAL BANK ACCOUNT this is wholesale fraud that we are powerless to address but time will assist in putting all these ills right.
    While on the subject of ills tell me what has Ms Walcott achieved during his term as Minister of Health?
    The hospital is certainly worst off now than when he took it over, very much the case with Tourism our airport is less functional today than before they destroyed the old building etc and the Minister is living in a $$$ million $$$ home and has spent in excess of another million dollars in renovations to his estate home doing all of this on the slender salary of minister of gov’t, but gets all flustered when he is asked where he amassed his wealth from in 3 short years.
    Why are we considering that Owing will be involved in politics for another term when he was all set to step aside and let Mottley run the ship but then he wrote those questions and told the interviewer to ask Mottley about Condoms in Prison and same sex marriages and legalising prostitution and homosexuality and low and behold she fell for the bait and then Owing beat her into submission and has completely broken her spirit.
    Owing will not endue the leadership of the party and will be overthrown or ousted from his post so why even factor him into any future equations?
    He is at war with so many of his members he is luck to be able to count 10 loyal supporters to himself, look at his most recent encounter with Haamy Lashley who has served him well but his use has expired to Owing so he is now treated like a piece of trash and destroyed.

  10. kerrel Avatar
    kerrel

    that wun owen arthur think that he cud tric we by giving the people a $40dollar ta vote fa he ya rong.so if he think he gine tric me he real rong. and i tak in bajan term

  11. Dominic Avatar
    Dominic

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    July

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  19. Qaasen Ricardo Sealy Avatar
    Qaasen Ricardo Sealy

    I represented Barbados and competed in the Eight China ZhengZhou International Shaolin Wushu Festival. It was held in Zhengzhou, China. I won two silver medals. One for Taiji Quan (Tai Chi) and one for Yong Chun Quan ( Wing Chun). The event was organised by the Chinese Wushu Association., and the Zhengzhou Sports Bureau Municipal Government.

    In addition to the martial arts competition, which held a grand opening music ceremony, I visited the largest Shaolin Temple in China, where I saw a wall Muriel of monks who looked like the average Barbadian practicing with Chinese monks over 1000 years ago, the ZhengZhou Museum and Ancient Shang Dynasty Relics. Also, I viewed Chinese health culture practices first hand.
    I have about 4 hours video footage and digital photos of my visit. 2430-15 ( mobile)

  20. checkit-out Avatar
    checkit-out

    Qaasen Ricardo Sealy; You said “I visited the largest Shaolin Temple in China, where I saw a wall Muriel of monks who looked like the average Barbadian practicing with Chinese monks over 1000 years ago”

    Could you publish any pictures you might have of these monks who look like the average Barbadians or point us to how we can get sight of them? It might be some more evidence of the spread of the black african throughout the world and all the ancient cultures.

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